The Ultimate Battle: Texas vs California!

[Sbane]

California - Republicans have actually won there. There have been over 100 statewide elections since 1994 and the democrats in Texas have won an impressive 0. The straight ticket voting Republican suburbs make it impossible for Democrats to get much over 44%. California is polarized as well, but far less so than Texas. I can therefore see McCain improving on Bush's 44% especially with latinos. Obama can improve from Kerry's 38% to the standard Democratic 41 or 42% but getting much higher will be hard.

I voted Texas but it will be hard. First of all the only republican who won statewide recently in Cali is Arnold and he is not a normal republican by any stretch of the imagination. Also he doesnt have an unpopular war dragging him down. That being said I think it will be hard for Obama to get more than 57% of the vote in California. Texas should swing towards democrats due to the national mood on top of the home state swing that Bush got. An interesting thing to watch for on election day.

[Sbane]

sbane, off topic, but I spoke with my Indian neighbor about politics this evening while petting his very friendly dog, and he said most of the folks he knows in the tribe, are not interested in politics, and more interested in making money. He basically said that chatting about politics was infra dig among the first generation. I asked about his son, and he said his recently college graduated son (from yes UCI) was more interested in fast cars and women than politics.

Yes indeed Indians are interested in making money. In India it is all about out hustling the competition and there is no time for politics. That is except of course in the wonderful leftist states of West bengal and Kerela. There they take time to contemplate more intellectual matters and as a Bengali, I guess I am continuing the tradition here.

[Sbane]

California will be closer for sure. I see Texas going 57-42 for McCain and California going 55-44 or so for Obama. I'm not sure why most of the folks here think Texas will be closer than California. The Dems have not shown any kind of progress there, and I don't believe Obama will magically bring the state within 10, and that's what it needs to be to be closer than California.

I am hoping Texas goes for Mccain something like 56-43 and I can definitely see Obama getting that kind of margin in California. It will be tough but it is possible and will be very very sveet.

[Sbane]

California will be closer for sure. I see Texas going 57-42 for McCain and California going 55-44 or so for Obama. I'm not sure why most of the folks here think Texas will be closer than California. The Dems have not shown any kind of progress there, and I don't believe Obama will magically bring the state within 10, and that's what it needs to be to be closer than California.

I am hoping Texas goes for Mccain something like 56-43 and I can definitely see Obama getting that kind of margin in California. It will be tough but it is possible and will be very very sveet.

I don't see Obama outperforming what Gore did in 2000. 12% is probably the biggest margin Obama can have there. I just doubt Texas only goes for McCain by just 12%.

I can guarantee you right now that northern california will swing more towards Obama relative to 2000. I am iffy about southern california since Gore did pretty well there. I think Obama can at least match the 2000 performance in the southland.  Also remember that almost 4% voted for Nader in that election and Bush only got about 41.5% of the vote. I  see Mccain getting about 42-43% of the vote this time around. Similar to what I think Obama will get in Texas I believe so it could be interesting. ( Mccain's ceiling in California is higher though, maybe like 45-46)

[Sbane]

sbane why do you think "nocal" (I assume you mean the bay area, plus the cannibus et al. zone along the coast running north, but stopping short of Del Norte County), will become even more mesmerized by utopianism in 2008 than previously? Is Obama that transfixing?

No he will improve from 2000 numbers. I think democrats have already maxed out in say San francisco but higher margins could be squeezed out of the more suburban areas. I know my upper midle-class community of pleasanton is ready to leap left and there are many similar cities all over the bay area. Then again Mccain should be the best kind of candidate for these parts but I dunno. The war is a big deal in my town and it is full of WASP's who are most vulnerable to the black magic of Obama.

[Sbane]

Obama's ceiling in Texas is probably 44-45%. I still don't understand everyone's reasoning, but most of it never makes sense and is based off personal beliefs. It'll be a real shocker when McCain wins by 15% in Texas to most of the forum members this year and Obama wins California by 10-12%.

I dont think anyone will be shocked if that happens. That is what is expected to happen but we are exploring our options here a bit. And you may not want to hear it but there is a definite chance of Obama getting a higher margin in California than mac in texas.

[Sbane]

Obama's ceiling in Texas is probably 44-45%. I still don't understand everyone's reasoning, but most of it never makes sense and is based off personal beliefs. It'll be a real shocker when McCain wins by 15% in Texas to most of the forum members this year and Obama wins California by 10-12%.

I dont think anyone will be shocked if that happens. That is what is expected to happen but we are exploring our options here a bit. And you may not want to hear it but there is a definite chance of Obama getting a higher margin in California than mac in texas.

Sure it can happen, but it's less likely to happen than what some of Obama's loyal fans are predicting around here. Obama getting 44% in Texas is much less likely than McCain getting 44% in California. California's Republican party is actually functioning unlike the Democrat party in Texas.

I beg to differ..Arnie does not count. As for the rest of the statement... you would be right if the climate for republicans wasnt so bad right now. In a 50-50 race Texas will of course be more republican than California is democrat. But what if Obama wins by 4 or 5 points? What happens then? I think a win of that magnitude would be necessary to make this scenario occur.

[Sbane]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Man, I need to get out more!  The GOP "functions" sort of in its shrinking redoubts as ambitious mediocrities fight for the scraps in assorted primaries (we had a doozer in my safe GOP state senate seat), but in general, it "functions" not at all, because it is dysfunctional, and out of sync with the leitmotif of the state. McCain's distancing of himself from this all, is the only reason sbane's little analysis is something other than beyond per adventure correct.

Sorry didnt understand you.. do you think my analysis is correct or wrong?

[Sbane]

I think it is more likely to be wrong, if someone other than McCain were the GOP nominee. And I think the odds are more likely than not that it is wrong, but there is less than clear and convincing evidence that it is wrong, so the odds of you being right, are somewhere between 35% and 49% of being correct. Does this make any sense at all? 

Yes I see that you believe the caveat that I threw up will actually come true. See this could happen but Mccain cannot dispose of the albatross around the neck that is the Iraq war. If Iraq was not happening right now Mccain would have a good chance in my town. I think the key vote will be independents. I am basing my prognostication on data showing towns around my area switching from GOP to DEM plurality registration. This of course masks that it is among independents that registration growth is highest. The independents in my town tend to be socially liberal, fiscally conservative. They do not like the Iraq war but they also do not like taxes. So if this was any other year Mccain would indeed stand a good chance of winning my area but I think it is the war that is the ultimate nail in the coffin for him. Of course a million things could change between now and november but that goes without saying.

[Sbane]

Iraq is slowly fading away, as the body count declines and things calm down. If Iraq becomes the choke point, than McCain is toast. Period.

Sadly I do not think people even care anymore. The American public has been misinformed about this war from the start and now they do not even care to find out. If things continue as they are, the war may not be as big an issue, but those "anti-war" voters will remain that way.