CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Sbane]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

[Sbane]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

Katie porters district is the reason why I think there is a decent chance OC votes to keep Newsom. Looks like that is the sort of place that will save Newsom from an embarrassingly close call.

[Sbane]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

Katie porters district is the reason why I think there is a decent chance OC votes to keep Newsom. Looks like that is the sort of place that will save Newsom from an embarrassingly close call.

......? this isn't 4 weeks ago. the recall is looking to top 20% for no.

Right, and my point is that its keep+20 due to districts like Katie Porters in OC. Other areas that will be strong for him will be the Bay Area, coastal SD and non-hollywood well-educated areas in LA County such as the PV peninsula, parts of the San Fernando valley, Pasadena etc.

[Sbane]

I think early voting is responsible for the current turnout rates. I can’t imagine GOP turnout being higher in Chula Vista than in Huntington Beach after the polls close.

That's not what the map depicts. It is only showing where each party has a turnout advantage. Looks like in most of Southern California the Democrats hold an advantage but it is weakest or even flipped in places with a higher Hispanic population, such as Chula Vista or Santa Ana. White Democrats are turning out just fine, Hispanics ones not so much. Maybe many will show up today. We shall see.

[Sbane]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Mission Viejo will vote to recall and it won't even be close. Still, recall +10-15 is a far cry from +25.

[Sbane]

Orange County map with early vote + election day.

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1438134042784763905?s=20

The fact that retain won in Seal Beach and Fountain Valley is pretty interesting. Fountain Valley could be due to the Vietnamese vote as well. Vietnamese areas do tend to vote more D when it comes to gubernatorial races for some reason.

[Sbane]

Does nobody else see the insanely low turnout in Imperial County, California?

Look, on New York Times currently, it says the following:

Imperial County, California (Pop 180K in 2020)
No - 61.3% - 8,830
Yes - 38.7% - 5,572
40% of estimated votes

Now compare it to another county of similar size:

Shasta County, California (Pop 182K in 2020)

Yes - 66.3% - 30,932
No - 33.7% - 15,726
74% of estimated votes


What's going on here? Is it that in Imperial County in‐person voting is much higher proportionally and we can expect for that to show a large increase? Do they have historically low turnout? When is our next Imperial County update?

Turnout’s low in Imperial, yeah, but it also has only 60k registered voters compared to nearly 100k in Shasta. Despite having a similar population, a lot of people who live in Imperial can’t actually vote.

why not?  young population?  lots of non-US citizens?  Big prison?

Lots of agriculture down there in the middle of the desert, believe it or not. Predominantly Hispanic farming towns all over California have horrible turnout.

[Sbane]

BTW, here the correct map of LA counties Yes/No vote. The previous map apparently had some precinct changes that had not been published, so the joining of the data was faulty. The resulting breakdown is  a much more recognizable divide.

Oh, and the Hispanic areas are among the fiercest No precincts.

No seems to have done very well in Asian predominant areas as well. Arcadia used to be a Republican city, especially at the state level, but every single precinct seems to have voted to keep Newsom. Across the San Gabriel Valley, Diamond Bar and Rowland Heights seem to have done the same. Similar results in Orange County as well.

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1438935966803062784?s=20

Only the most demographically concentrated areas are highlighted and analyzed, but you can see the overflow in surrounding precincts not dominated by one group.

What do they attribute this to?  Increased racism after the election due to covid?

Rather I think a lot of Asians swung to Trump in 2020 due to the riots and in the case of the Vietnamese community in particular, fear of "socialism". This was just a mean reversion more than anything.

[Sbane]

I think the era of Trump has ended the days of Democrats not being able to turn out their voters. It's no longer a challenge to convey to low propensity voters what is at stake because we are basically in a non-stop political cycle.

Hopefully the ending of mailing of ballots in most states will end that

Trying to stop people from voting is a losing strategy. It's not going to work and even more people won't vote for your party. At this point I think it would be best to dissolve the CA GOP and start a new party that can appeal to the well-educated suburbs that dot California (and increasingly other states as well), rather than the dying rural bumpkin they currently appeal to with candidates like Trump or Elder.

[Sbane]

Keep an eye on Placer County. Although more than a third of the vote is still out, yes on recall is winning by only 2 points. That is an almost 16 point swing from 2018. Perhaps yes will grow as more of the vote comes in, but this is yet another fast growing suburban area Republicans are having trouble in.

[Sbane]

Are there any Cox 2018 districts other than CA-39 and CA-45 that voted no?

Wait where did you get this CD data, I've been looking for it everywhere.

From Wikipedia. This map shows that Cox won CA-39 and CA-45 in 2018.

No I mean the evidence that CA-39 voted No, I can't find LA and Riverside numbers for that district

While I don't have precise numbers out of CA-39's LA County portion, there is precinct data that shows No carried every single precinct in Diamond Bar, Rowland Heights, Hacienda Heights and Walnut. It is safe to say this will flip the district to no considering the small lead for yes out of Orange County. Not to mention Chino Hills is very similar to these aforementioned cities and I would argue is more similar to these cities than anywhere else in San Bernardino County.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/newsom-recall-election-results-southern-california-analysis/

[Sbane]

So when do the blue avatars admit this isn't tightening to 20?  We are pretty much at the point where even if every single remaining ballot goes to "YES" it's mathematically impossible to reach a 20 point margin.

The final margin will be close to No +25. Just an utter waste of time and money.

[Sbane]

Santa Barbara County vote margin is now the same exact margin as statewide to the tee! Both are No 62.7% - Yes 37.3%!

Solano County is at the same margin as well: No vote - 97,780 - 62.7%; Yes vote - 58,248 - 37.3%.

Does anybody know why the number of unprocessed ballots in Los Angeles County went UP drastically about 2-3 days ago? The number of unprocessed ballots used to be under 300,000, and it has gone up by more than 100,000 to nearly 413,000.

Probably ballots that were mailed by election day but didn't arrive till after the weekend.

[Sbane]

Are you guys expecting San Bernandino county to flip at this point?

Hard to say at this point. The margin is razor thin but only about 17,500 ballots are remaining. I would lean no.

[Sbane]

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Impressive for Newsom to beat his 2018 margin despite 2018 being a wave year and 2021 being off year.

Almost like the newest iteration of "Dems in disarray" isn't panning out. 

Don't worry though, Virginia race is coming up soon and there could be rain in the forecast for Fairfax.

Looks like it is guaranteed that he is on track to underperform his 18' margins with the remaining ballots coming in.

Absolutely pathetic that he did worse than 2018 with so high turnout, more money and national attention to this race compared to last time.

Umm you guys were trying to recall him and it turns out to be literally the same margin as the previous election. Why the hell did you guys waste all this time and money on this? The Republican party should be forced to pay for this recall.

If you dumbasses actually ran a competent candidate who wasn't some anti-vaxxer, covid truther loony tunes you may have kept the margin within 20!

[Sbane]

On a related note, my growing frustration with the Registrar of Voters continues as I was all ready to break down the local results, but the County for whatever reason didn't upload their SOV with the final summary results.

The County must've heard my cries cause they uploaded the SOV!

Interestingly, No won the overall city vote 51 - 49, but the unincorporated area supported recall around 57 - 43. Just enough for the county as a whole to flip to Yes.

Cities largely voted as they did in 2018 & 2020. Banning, Corona, Hemet, La Quinta & Lake Elsinore were all Biden/Cox cities that supported recall. The only Biden/Cox city to vote against the recall was Palm Desert.



                                  Yes% - No%    N-Y margin% 
Palm Springs               20.1  -  79.9               +59.7
Coachella                    20.5   -  79.5               +59.0
Cathedral City             28.0   -  72.0               +44.0
Perris                          31.6   -  68.4               +36.9
Moreno Valley             35.6   -  64.4               +28.7
Desert Hot Springs      38.0  -  62.0               +24.1
Rancho Mirage            39.7   -  60.3               +20.7
Indio                           41.9   -  58.1               +16.2
Riverside                     45.6   -  54.4                 +8.8
Palm Desert                46.5   -  53.5                 +7.0
Jurupa Valley              47.4   -  52.6                 +5.1
San Jacinto                 48.8   -  51.2                 +2.3
Eastvale                      49.9   -  50.1                 +0.2
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    50.5  -  49.5                  -1.0
La Quinta                    51.4   -  48.6                  -2.9
Banning                      51.8   -  48.2                  -3.7
Hemet                         52.4   -  47.6                  -4.9
Corona                        52.6   -  47.4                  -5.2
Beaumont                   54.3   -  45.7                  -8.7
Lake Elsinore              54.7   -  45.3                  -9.4
Unincorporated Area  57.1   -  42.9                -14.2
Temecula                    59.1   -  40.9                -18.2
Menifee                       59.4   -  40.6                -18.8
Blythe                         59.8   -  40.2                -19.6
Indian Wells               59.9   -  40.1                -19.8
Murrieta                      62.1   -  37.9                -24.1
Wildomar                    65.6   -  34.4                -31.2
Calimesa                     67.2   -  32.8                -34.4
Norco                          74.0   -  26.0                -47.9
Canyon Lake               79.5   -  20.5                -58.9

CD-36                          45.1   - 54.9                 +9.9
CD-41                          42.5   - 57.5               +15.0
CD-42                          59.0   - 41.0                -18.0



2021 N-Y - 2018 D-R SWING
Indian Wells                D+16.1
Rancho Mirage             D+14.1
Palm Desert                   D+8.7
Palm Springs                 D+7.4
La Quinta                       D+7.1
Hemet                            D+6.5
Menifee                          D+4.7
Banning                         D+4.6
Cathedral City                D+4.2
Beaumont                      D+2.2
Temecula                       D+1.6
Calimesa                        D+1.5
Murrieta                         D+1.5
Unincorporated Area     D+1.0
Indio                              D+0.4
RIVERSIDE COUNTY      R+0.7
Moreno Valley                R+1.4
Corona                           R+1.6
Lake Elsinore                 R+1.8
Wildomar                       R+2.0
Desert Hot Springs        R+2.9
Riverside                       R+3.5
San Jacinto                   R+4.1
Norco                            R+5.2
Canyon Lake                 R+5.8
Eastvale                        R+7.1
Perris                            R+8.3
Jurupa Valley                R+8.3
Coachella                      R+9.5
Blythe                         R+13.7


CD-36                          D+3.5
CD-41                          R+3.8
CD-42                          R+0.4


2021 - 2018 TURNOUT (+ Percentage of 18+ year old Hispanics & 18+ year old Non-Hispanic Whites)
                                2021% - 2018%     DIFFERENCE%      HISPANIC%   WHITE%

Indian Wells                77.9  -      83.4                       -5.4                     5.4           89.1
Rancho Mirage             76.8  -     80.7                        -3.9                   11.2           79.5
Canyon Lake                72.4  -     72.0                       +0.5                   12.9           77.7
Palm Springs               71.1  -     76.3                        -5.3                   20.9           66.9
Calimesa                      67.9  -     71.0                        -3.1                   25.3           65.1
Palm Desert                 67.2  -     74.4                        -7.2                   22.0           68.2
Norco                           66.4  -     70.5                        -4.1                   33.4           51.7
La Quinta                     66.1  -     72.4                        -6.3                   29.4           61.5
Temecula                     62.9  -     68.4                        -5.5                   25.1           52.2
Murrieta                       61.9  -     66.6                        -4.8                   27.6           49.6
Menifee                        60.6  -     66.7                        -6.1                   34.0           47.6
Beaumont                    60.3  -     66.6                        -6.3                   40.4           42.7
Banning                       59.3  -     66.5                        -7.2                   40.4           42.7
Wildomar                     58.1   -    63.4                        -5.3                   37.3           47.0
Corona                         57.0   -    64.0                        -7.0                   43.3           34.3
Eastvale                       56.7   -    62.5                        -5.8                   35.4           20.5
Cathedral City              56.1   -    62.1                        -6.1                   54.4          33.9
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    55.7  -     62.5                       -6.8                    45.6          44.1
Unincorporated Area   55.2   -    64.5                        -9.3
Indio                            53.6   -    61.4                        -7.8                   64.3          28.6
Riverside                     53.3   -    60.6                         -7.3                   50.6          30.9
Lake Elsinore               52.4   -    59.6                        -7.2                    47.4          33.2
Hemet                          51.9   -    59.7                        -7.8                    40.4          42.4
Jurupa Valley               46.7   -    56.8                      -10.0                    66.9          21.1
Blythe                          46.1   -    58.9                      -12.8                    38.6           39.4
San Jacinto                  44.5   -    53.1                        -8.6                    57.4           26.1
Moreno Valley              43.6   -    51.4                       -7.9                     58.2           15.4
Desert Hot Springs      42.6  -     51.1                       -8.5                      56.0           30.0
Perris                          37.0   -    46.0                        -9.0                      73.7             9.2
Coachella                    34.1   -    43.8                        -9.7                      96.2             2.1

This is very interesting. Looks like the cities with a larger white population swung to Newsom and those with a larger Hispanic and Black population swung against him. And perhaps lower turnout among non-whites might explain some of that, which means this result is even worse for Republicans than it looks at first glance. They should perhaps quit with the covid truther nonsense and actually try and face reality.