Forgive me for not editing my midnight writing on an obscure political forum I like visiting in my spare time. Sanders not winning may or may not have led to people staying home, and were the positions flipped, the numbers likely would have been similar. I sincerely doubt more Americans would have turned out for Sanders, given polling indicates most considered Clinton to be less of a centrist than Trump and Sanders moreso. A Sanders campaign might have kept some blue collar votes in the rustbelt (although this isn't clear--in the primary, Clinton won the parts of MI and PA which swung hardest to Trump), but I doubt he'd keep more votes in places like Macomb and Lackawanna than Clinton gained in places like Chester and Oakland. Clinton obviously ran a flawed campaign (unlike Obama '08, which was the one I worked on), but I doubt Sanders would have run a better one. The vote distribution was bad, but I don't think Sanders would have pulled off anything better.
Personally and if it makes you feel any better, I'm of the belief that the Sanders "magic" that I believe would've existed in '16 is now somewhat gone. I don't think he's going to win back hordes of rural, white and/or blue collar types (though regardless of performance, I do believe he'll outperform Generic '20 D). His primary coalition over 4 years went from 75% white and 60% male to 50% female and 50% non-white essentially: you don't undergo such a change without counter-effects. It actually reminds me a lot of Hillary's "reinvention" between '08 and '16 (though not as radical of a shift). To a certain degree, he's a more known quality now and he had to delve deeper into social and cultural appeals (both of which were necessary for a primary win this time, but undercut him with some of the types who would've voted his way 4 years ago).
I think the fact that people saw Clinton as being less centrist than Trump (and of course the fact that Trump got elected) really tells you all you need to know about the net impact of ideology on a contest. Perception of ideology is malleable and/or meaningless; rather than drawing conclusions that Americans always choose to elect the most "centrist" candidate, maybe people are just susceptible to anything? I would bet that perception for Trump - if there's any actual logic to it - was rooted in him claiming not to want to gut the ACA, Social Security and Medicare, which won't be a viable perception this year anyway. He will be judged on a steeper curve.
If Sanders goes in with a plurality and Biden is nominated, Sanders supporters will not support him, and his supporters are needed by Democrats.
I guarantee you Biden will lose if he gets the nomination without getting the most pledged delegates. And I am not talking about myself. I will support Biden even if he gets the nomination in this underhanded way, but a lot of low information voters will not bother voting if they see this sort of chicanery. And if Biden is able to get more delegates than Bernie but it's not a majority, he should still get the nomination.
