Latino Decisions: Clinton 70 Trump 19

[Sbane]

I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.

[Sbane]

I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.

You would expect, that Clinton would win this election with 20%. But your feelings do not count.

No, only cold hard facts. We can both agree on that. Like the fact that poll after poll shows Clinton winning with college-educated whites and doing about 5-10 points better among the overall white vote than Obama in 2012. That doesn't jive with a 4-6 point election either......

[Sbane]

I think this will be one of those issues that define how the election turns out. What we are seeing in polls doesn't jive with what one would expect considering Trump's views and what I am seeing on the ground. I have a feeling Clinton over performs her polls, at least with Latinos and Asians, on election day.

You would expect, that Clinton would win this election with 20%. But your feelings do not count.

No, only cold hard facts. We can both agree on that. Like the fact that poll after poll shows Clinton winning with college-educated whites and doing about 5-10 points better among the overall white vote than Obama in 2012. That doesn't jive with a 4-6 point election either......

Haha. No, your opinion is not cold, and actually is not a fact.
What we have is polls. And you, trying to unskew them.

I agreed with you that my opinion doesn't really matter, only facts......

Like the fact that Clinton is doing about 5-10 points better among whites than Obama in 2012, and about the same as Obama 2008. Do you disagree with that?

[Sbane]

I agreed with you that my opinion doesn't really matter, only facts......

Like the fact that Clinton is doing about 5-10 points better among whites than Obama in 2012, and about the same as Obama 2008. Do you disagree with that?

I don't know. Just link to those facts/polls. That's who we do in Sweden.
I always do so, when I talk about numbers.

Seriously? Obviously you don't follow the polls that closely......

1)http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/POSTING_Tables_Sep2016_Horserace_Registered_And-_Likely-Voters.pdf
IBD poll where Clinton leads by 1 but only loses white vote by 14 points.

2) http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/08/31/fox-news-poll-aug-31-2016/
Fox Poll where Clinton leads by just 6 while only losing the white vote by 11 points. That would be 2 points better than Obama 2008.

3) http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1,SC_RACE:1/dates/20160801-20160901/type/week
Latest Reuters poll which is tied but Trump only up by 11 among whites.

4)https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/d1qd4msxfd/econTabReport.pdf
Yougov poll where Clinton leads by 5 but only down 13 points among whites.

5) http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_83016.pdf
PPP poll where Clinton is up 5 and down 15 among whites

6) http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/01/suffolk-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-fear/89577824/
In this USA today poll Trump is only up by 8 points among whites but Clinton only leads him by 7.

7) http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/
Monmouth poll where again Trump is only up 8 points up among whites while only losing by 7 points.

And these are just the latest polls on Realclearpolitics.com.........

[Sbane]

Obama lost the white vote by about 17-20 points in 2012 depending on the source you use. If there is a 5-10 point swing to Clinton this year, it would imply a race where she is winning by 9-14 points assuming non-whites swing the same amount. Instead the topline numbers show something close to Obama 2012. That can only be true if non-whites swing by about 8-12 points towards Trump compared to Romney. Perhaps that is true. I guess we will find out in November.

[Sbane]

Obama lost the white vote by about 17-20 points in 2012 depending on the source you use. If there is a 5-10 point swing to Clinton this year, it would imply a race where she is winning by 9-14 points assuming non-whites swing the same amount. Instead the topline numbers show something close to Obama 2012. That can only be true if non-whites swing by about 8-12 points towards Trump compared to Romney. Perhaps that is true. I guess we will find out in November.

Have you applied your Math to the 2008/2012. Did it work?
Romney loose because of incredibly low turnout of Whites, but guess what. Even McCain didn't manage to have get high turn-out among Whites.

Ah yes, the whites didn't turn out scenario. Rather the polls are saying Trump will do better with non-whites than Romney. We shall see.

[Sbane]

Obama lost the white vote by about 17-20 points in 2012 depending on the source you use. If there is a 5-10 point swing to Clinton this year, it would imply a race where she is winning by 9-14 points assuming non-whites swing the same amount. Instead the topline numbers show something close to Obama 2012. That can only be true if non-whites swing by about 8-12 points towards Trump compared to Romney. Perhaps that is true. I guess we will find out in November.

Have you applied your Math to the 2008/2012. Did it work?
Romney loose because of incredibly low turnout of Whites, but guess what. Even McCain didn't manage to have get high turn-out among Whites.

Ah yes, the whites didn't turn out scenario. Rather the polls are saying Trump will do better with non-whites than Romney. We shall see.

Ehm... polls are showing both. But you want to unskew them, right?

One more time, what is your point?
That polls are wrong? Why?
Need to be unskewed like in 2012? Why?

No, I don't want to skew anything. Just showing that whites are voting at a higher rate for Clinton than for Obama. You can draw your own conclusions from that.