Is it time to accept that Nativist Nuttery is taking over?

[Sbane]

Brexit really isn't on the same level of crazy as Trump though, not by a long shot.

I agree with this. The political climate is such that a Trump like candidate could win, but not Trump himself. And such a candidate would get a surprising amount of support among certain minority groups, and the Brexit results showed the same thing. If Trump sobers up and tries to mend relations with minority groups while not backing away from his core issues, he may have a chance. I just don't see him being capable of that. That is why Brexit can win and Trump can't.

[Sbane]

I think what needs to be understood is at no point did Trump or Brexit destroy traditional conventional wisdom on elections and polls. Trump led virtually every single poll from fall last year. Brexit polls showed a close vote with Brexit leading in many polls.

So this does maybe show that the talking points of "X could never happen despite what the polls say, don't worry" should be disregarded, and that would be a big cause for concern if Trump was actually polling with a lead over Hillary or within the MoE, nothing indicates that Trump can win with his current 6+ point trailing.

This is also true. I hadn't been following the Brexit polling closely so I believed it when people said the polling had got it wrong...until I actually looked at the polling. Maybe the leave camp slightly overperformed but within the margin of error. People assumed those who were undecided would go strongly for remain, and that was incorrect. Some people are also assuming a lot of the undecided in the presidential race will go for Hillary, and that would be a bad assumption to make as well.