Feb 7th Delhi Assembly elections

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AAP is just fine as long as it doesn't stand in the way of economic reform. In fact, I hope they lead that movement. I am cautiously optimistic. At the very least they won't be corrupt.

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The main danger, of course, is that BJP reacts to this by provoking communal violence in order to cause Hindu consolidation against the minorities: it may well be their best (politically) bet at this point.

Ag, you seem to understand Indian politics and yet you ignore your own wisdom when making posts about religious riots. It is just irrational behavior on your part. You made the correct point that when the election becomes about the BJP or secular forces vs non-secular forces, the secular side will win every single time. So what incentive does the BJP have to create that paradigm themselves?  The BJP has all the incentive in the world to keep their opposition divided among multiple parties. That will not happen if they start religious riots and try to divide India.

Also, the sort of consolidation of the non-BJP vote you saw in Delhi will likely not occur in rural India where caste politics is still king. So all the BJP has to do is make sure they keep their base (which they can do without riots) and get enough of the secular middle class vote in order to win. Remember, the lower class vote will likely swing against the incumbents.

Furthermore, AAP and Kejriwal are much greater threats to the BJP than Congress. As this election shows, people are still tired of Congress and Kejriwal represents one of the only viable choices to defeat Modi in 2019. The issue for AAP is gaining support in the rest of India, not just Delhi. Divisive riots would only be a catalyst for that.

[Sbane]

The main danger, of course, is that BJP reacts to this by provoking communal violence in order to cause Hindu consolidation against the minorities: it may well be their best (politically) bet at this point.

Ag, you seem to understand Indian politics and yet you ignore your own wisdom when making posts about religious riots. It is just irrational behavior on your part. You made the correct point that when the election becomes about the BJP or secular forces vs non-secular forces, the secular side will win every single time. So what incentive does the BJP have to create that paradigm themselves?  The BJP has all the incentive in the world to keep their opposition divided among multiple parties. That will not happen if they start religious riots and try to divide India.

Also, the sort of consolidation of the non-BJP vote you saw in Delhi will likely not occur in rural India where caste politics is still king. So all the BJP has to do is make sure they keep their base (which they can do without riots) and get enough of the secular middle class vote in order to win. Remember, the lower class vote will likely swing against the incumbents.

Furthermore, AAP and Kejriwal are much greater threats to the BJP than Congress. As this election shows, people are still tired of Congress and Kejriwal represents one of the only viable choices to defeat Modi in 2019. The issue for AAP is gaining support in the rest of India, not just Delhi. Divisive riots would only be a catalyst for that.

I do understand Indian politics. Lower castes distrust BJP: until, that is, it is Hindu vs. Muslim. There were no riots before this election: and the rural districts of Delhi fell to AAP. As far as good RSS men are concerned, this was preventable.

And yet you yourself mentioned that when it is secular vs non-secular, the secular side always wins. Most people who would support a party instigating a religious riot against Muslims are already supporting the BJP. Sure, the BJP might be able to hold on to some lower caste votes they might have lost otherwise if it is Hindu vs Muslim at the polls. On the other hand, they will consolidate the rest of the electorate against them.

The BJP did about as well as it could in 2014 and the NDA coalition still only got 39% of the vote. If the 61% of Indians who didn't vote for the NDA consolidate, they will lose the next election. I can't speak for the RSS, who probably think under any circumstance killing muslims is fine, but looking at it from purely a political strategy standpoint, it would be incredibly stupid for the BJP to incite religious riots. And whether you like it or not, the last election proved how savvy the BJP campaign was. There weren't a bunch of hicks from the middle of nowhere running the BJP campaign, it was a modern campaign the likes of which India had never seen before. I doubt they would make such a grave miscalculation.

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Whoa! So all the polls were showing the AAP and the BJP in a close race, and even if at the end it maybe seemed AAP was pulling away, no one expected a 67-3 blowout. So what happened?

Non-BJP vote consolidated behind AAP. BJP vote share stayed about the same as last time.