India 2014 - Results

[Sbane]

Although until this year they at least ran a Sikh candidate (former international cricketer, television personality and one time murderer Navjot Singh Sidhu), rather than a Hindu party apparatchik.

That shouldn't be surprising. After all Sikhs are one of the most pro BJP voting groups.

Is this primarily an outgrowth of the bad blood between the Sikh population and the Gandhis or are there other reasons for it as well?

What happened in 1984 has a large part to do with it. Also, refugees tend to be more anti-Pakistan and BJP is the party that is more anti-Pakistan.

[Sbane]

Although until this year they at least ran a Sikh candidate (former international cricketer, television personality and one time murderer Navjot Singh Sidhu), rather than a Hindu party apparatchik.

That shouldn't be surprising. After all Sikhs are one of the most pro BJP voting groups.

Is this primarily an outgrowth of the bad blood between the Sikh population and the Gandhis or are there other reasons for it as well?

Not really.  BJS and SAD has had alliances going back to the 1960s.  What took place in 1984 did not help.  On the other hand 1984 did not stop INC from having significant but not majority support in Sikh part of Punjab.  But INC is competitive there.

I bet Punjabi Hindus were voting mostly for the INC in 1984.

[Sbane]

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/delhi-muslims-muslim-voters-bjp-narendra-modi-delhi-lok-sabha-constituencies-harsh-vardhan-parvesh-singh-verma-ec-aap/1/362351.html

Looks like a sizeable amount of muslims may have voted for the  BJP, especially in areas where communalism is not as prevalent. I would have expected at least Chandni Chowk in Delhi to vote against the BJP but that did not happen.

[Sbane]

I don't know anything about Indian politics, but I'm curious whether the BJP is any more radical now than they were when they were in power from 1998 to 2004. Because reading through their wikipedia page, I've become worried they might start a nuclear war with Pakistan....

Considering that India hasn't even started a war since it became independent, I think it is a little ridiculous to think India might start a nuclear war. Obviously a lot of the hyperbole in the western media is borne out if ignorance. The BJP ran on a disciplined message about pro-growth policies, not starting wars or killing Muslims. A terrorist attack by Pakistan likely won't go unanswered under a BJP government but they are not going to start a nuclear war. Please tell me why India shouldn't be able to defend herself?

As for the foreign policy you should expect under a BJP government, you should google the Kargil war. Regarding the US  war on terror, they should find a more willing partner in the BJP. That is assuming they can get past their ignorance about the big, bad Hindu nationalists.

[Sbane]

I actually recently read that in Kargil, the RSS/VHP wanted Vajpayee to use nuclear weapons, and he (understandably) scoffed at the idea.

There are crazies out there like in any country but that does not describe the mainstream BJP. Even one led by Modi.

I read the BJP wiki article and found nothing in there that would make one think it is in favor of nuclear war. The anti-BJP propaganda in the west has reached stunning heights.

[Sbane]

Well, on one thing I would agree with Sbane: at least for the moment, the new government is a lot more dangerous for Indian Hindus than for Pakistani Muslims. Modi is not an idiot. So, he is a lot more likely to murder unarmed civilians than to start a war.

I find your theory about Indian Hindus being at risk interesting. Could you elaborate on that?

[Sbane]

Well, on one thing I would agree with Sbane: at least for the moment, the new government is a lot more dangerous for Indian Hindus than for Pakistani Muslims. Modi is not an idiot. So, he is a lot more likely to murder unarmed civilians than to start a war.

I find your theory about Indian Hindus being at risk interesting. Could you elaborate on that?

Well, first of all, they are Indians If Modi decides that playing up communal violence is useful for his purposes, as at some point I think he will, he is not going to simply send the goons to attack Muslims or whomever. There would have to be a cause. The majority would have to feel aggrieved and endangered. Hence the violence would have to be mutual. There is nothing that provokes mass murder like fear: he will happily generate that.

I have long been trying to explain to you that I do not believe Modi to be a genocidal Muslim hater. He, probably, sincerely dislikes Muslims - but that is not the main problem. The main problem is that he has shown that in his opinion human life is worth literally nothing - at least, in comparison with him achieving his political goals.

That is certainly an interesting theory. So Modi will get Muslims to attack Hindus which will lead to a reaction, basically?

Also, what I have been trying to tell you all this while is that I do not foresee a scenario where widespread communal violence will be to Modi's electoral advantage. You can make an argument that it would be to his advantage in a place like Assam, but that is mostly due to local factors on the ground and the threat for violence would remain even if the BJP didn't exist in that state. Otherwise, I don't see an advantage to communal violence. Perhaps if he can provoke Muslims into a violent reaction first, this plan might work. Otherwise the BJP will be judged on how well the economy is doing, and there is nothing they can do to change it. If communalism was that big of a deciding factor in how people vote, the BJP would have been winning landslides a long time ago.

Also, keep in mind that the BJP only won about 40% of the vote this time around. If they go the communalism route, there is a much greater chance of that 60% of the vote that didn't vote for them consolidating against them. In addition, even if the economy doesn't recover and the BJP is set to do worse than 2014, their goal would still be to win the most seats and form a coalition government, which they can't do if they go the divisive route. They could lose a 100 seats and still form a coalition government in 2019.

[Sbane]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZdH94R6XwQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAR3cb1V_ss

These two videos of the interview of Fareed Zakaria by John Oliver has to be the most reasonable and knowledgeable analysis of the Indian election I have seen in the western media. As you might expect, it didn't actually come from the media. It also stands in stark contrast to the hysteria we saw on this thread. I recommend that anyone who wants to better understand the context of this election, watch this interview. I should point out that Fareed is a muslim guy who actually grew up in India.

[Sbane]

I think Brookings Institution's 2014 India election preview and AAR are very good

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJhwXdu33fk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyTUKQNfaAk

They are pretty long but well worth it.

Yeah I watched those. Thought about posting them but they are very long. Again, great analysis.

[Sbane]

Look at the AIADMK website

http://aiadmk.com/

Notice how every section has a picture of Jayalalithaa and every picture of a person is Jayalalithaa.

Haha, that's perfect.