India 2014

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http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-04-04/news/48866852_1_vote-share-rahul-sinha-state-bjp-leader
An article talking about the BJP vote doubling in WB. They think they will win 4 seats but I am not sure about that, unless there is a huge swing in those districts in the western part of WB with low muslim populations. And Darjeeling is interesting since the BJP is traditionally in favor of creating more states and is supported by the separatist party there. Although Baichung Bhutia, the most famous soccer player in India of Gorkha descent, is contesting that seat for TMC. Should be close.

Also, I should mention that the Kolkata seats are drawn as a perfect anti-BJP (or anti-middle class) gerrymander. The middle class areas are almost perfectly split between south Kolkata, Jadavpur and Barasat. Barasat is especially heinous as it lops in Bidhannagar and New Town (these two areas are the newer planned middle class areas) with places like Madhyamgram which is a working class exurban mess as well as rural areas which are heavily muslim. North Kolkata and the Howrah side of the river is almost all working class as well so the BJP has no chance in Kolkata despite getting a decent vote share in the city.

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Well, and once Modi is the disappointment of the middle class and foreign investors, what is he to do? Sit back and enjoy the defeat at the next election? Or, may be, do what he can, actually, do: wipe up the communal hatreds to make sure a sizable segment of voters has to maintain him in power to avoid retribution?

The problem with Modi is not that he is a horrid fundamentalist - perhaps, he is, but that is not the main thing. The problem is that he has shown that he is not averse to using mob hatreds and murders to achieve his political goals. You might believe (or, should I say, hope?) that it will not be in his interest to do those things again. But hatred does pay, unfortunately. So I would not be that sanguine.

That would only be the difference between 120 and 160 seats for the NDA. I don't think someone can win the whole country based on that, unless that occurs along with a war with Pakistan or a massive terror attack. So why would he do it?

In any case, I agree with Jaichind that a lot of the difference would have to be made at the state level. But the national can do some things like hasten the pace of road construction, allow more foreign investment, fix the tax system and hopefully privatize more industries.

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or sponsoring a convenient terrorist attack before an election?

Probably with help from his Israeli friends?

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October surprise!

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There are so many things so wrong on so many counts... I just hope, Indian democracy can survive 5 years lf it.

Relax, man. If it survived Indira, it can survive anything.

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Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

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Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

No. Enlighten us sahib.

You can read for yourself. To be honest I didn't know much about this until today. I had just heard about it but never really looked to into it and the only reason I did today was to make a point that the massacre of muslims happen under other governments as well, not just BJP. What I found was a little more interesting, and something you would never see in the west would you? Imagine if some immigrants in Europe rioted or blacks in the US and killed white people, they would be in jail for the rest of their lives. Electrocuted around here. In India, the leaders of the group get to meet with the Chief Minister.

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Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

There is a difference between incompetence and deliberate murder. Aside even from the minor fact that in Gujarat there were, what, 50 times as many victims?

Deliberate murder by whom though? BJP cadres or was Modi in the streets?  Here it looks like it was SP party folks, or at least their cherished vote bank. Is Akilesh Yadav a murderer as well? You can say that in Gujarat the police did nothing, thus implying murder by the government itself. The same thing happened here. Or should this be held to a different standard?

 I was pretty surprised actually...I really didn't know that is what happened in Muzaffarnagar. All I knew about it was that people were killed (I assumed muslims) and that people were homeless. Anyways, the BJP strength in UP is starting to make more sense to me now.

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Also, for those of you who seem to think India treats its religious minorities so horribly, would you be happy if they got the same type of treatment religious minorities get in muslim countries surrounding India?

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Also, for those of you who seem to think India treats its religious minorities so horribly, would you be happy if they got the same type of treatment religious minorities get in muslim countries surrounding India?

1. I never said India treated minorities horribly. Unlike, it seems, you, I do not consider Modi to be India.

2. What do Muslim-Shmuslim countries have to do with this conversation? We do not talk about Saudi Arabia here. Frankly, I do not care a fruck for Saudi Arabia. We are talking about India. And, yes, in the US they used to lynch the Negroes. Another very relevant point you could make.

Why talk about Saudi Arabia? We could talk about, say, Bangladesh.

And my reason for even bringing up Muzaffarnagar was to show you that Modi is not in a league by his own, as you seem to think. Of course whether such a person should be PM is another matter. It is not unreasonable to hold a person seeking that office to a higher standard than your normal politician. I think he will be much better than Prince Gandhi, but I guess I have made my thoughts quite clear there.

Whatever actions Modi took, or to put it more accurately, didn't take in 2002 was due to political calculations. The same reason why the UP government didn't arrest those responsible for the Muzaffarnagar riots and the same reason why the beloved Congress party murdered more than a 1,000 Sikhs in 1984. And of course there are countless other examples in India, and unfortunately there will be more, whether or not Modi becomes PM.

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If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

Isn't that what happened in 1984 against the Sikhs?

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If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

Isn't that what happened in 1984 against the Sikhs?

Rajiv is dead. When Modi is dead I will be willing to let it go.

Umm, his wife currently runs the country and his son is running for PM. And she has personally protected congress party members who organized the riots.

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If you would like to become Bangladesh, you are welcome.

And no, Modi is in a league of his own. Riots in murders happen in India, it is true. Having the government in cold blood encourage, killing over 2000 people in mere days is much more rare.

Isn't that what happened in 1984 against the Sikhs?

Rajiv is dead. When Modi is dead I will be willing to let it go.

Umm, his wife currently runs the country and his son is running for PM. And she has personally protected congress party members who organized the riots.

Back then his son was a child and his wife was completely out of politics then and for years thereafter. She most definitely did not order murders. I have no objections to Jashodaben running for office 10 years after the SOB dies.

She has been protecting the ones responsible though.

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It's an open secret that Sonia runs the country.

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The whataboutery in this thread is strong.

Yes, only the BJP has a history of using communal violence for political gain. You seem to be very familiar with Indian politics.

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The whataboutery in this thread is strong.

Yes, only the BJP has a history of using communal violence for political gain. You seem to be very familiar with Indian politics.

The prosecution rests. A+ Whataboutery.

(Oh, and nice putting words in my mouth. I said nothing about the BJP, Modi, The Nehru-Gandhis, Gujarat, Congress or anything of that nature. Please criticize me for the things I say in future. Good protip that).

My point is that most of the political parties in India are cut from the same cloth when it comes to communalism. You can call it whatever you would like, I don't really care. The truth is that in the west the BJP is seen as this evil party whereas Congress can do no wrong.

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And looking up the definition of whataboutery (not familiar with it since it's not really used in America), I must say I find nothing wrong with it unless one uses it to justify certain actions (communalism in this case). I challenge you to find a post where I did that.

My defense of the BJP here really is to give people an understanding of why urban India will be voting overwhelmingly for the BJP, and why it doesn't have anything to do with killing muslims. Of course the argument is made that the BJP are too horrible a party and being tired of Congress party corruption and ineffectiveness in keeping economic growth going is not enough of a justification to vote for them. From the Indian perspective though, the BJP, as horrible as it is, isn't that dissimilar from the rest of the lot.

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So this thread is another case of hyperbolic ag basically freaking out that the world is coming to an end. Loads of these lately.

Not at all. He's quite correct in this instance.

No, he hasn't provided any substantial evidence to prove that point. He has basically just reverted to the "this guy did some horrible things 10 years ago like your average Indian politician so he shouldn't be elected" viewpoint.

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So this thread is another case of hyperbolic ag basically freaking out that the world is coming to an end. Loads of these lately.

Not at all. He's quite correct in this instance.

No, he hasn't provided any substantial evidence to prove that point. He has basically just reverted to the "this guy did some horrible things 10 years ago like your average Indian politician so he shouldn't be elected" viewpoint.

I was unaware that the average Indian politician instigated mass pogroms.

The average Indian politician is not above anything in order to win.

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The average Indian politician is not above anything in order to win.

True.  But we should look at what that politician did in order to win.  I completely agree with you that the INC is not above this sort of stuff.  In the 1960s the local INC in MP and UP was behind a bunch anti-Muslim riots and Nehru was powerless to stop them.  The scale of these riots were not as bad a Gujarat 2002 but were all very significant.  And of course there is the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.  But just because the INC did these things it is not the same as all INC politicians did these things.  And certainly did not nominate these people for PM.  So while I agree that the INC is far from being guiltless there is a hierarchy of misdeeds. 

For example, it is a common consensus that Jagdish Tytler was the INC leader behind the 1984 riots.  It is true that INC in 2009 nominated Jagdish Tytler for a MP who in turn won.  So the INC leadership is protecting those behind these riots.  But that is not the same as nominating Jagdish Tytler as the INC candidate for PM.  So I do not see INC protecting Jagdish Tytler the same as BJP nominating Modi as PM.  What the BJP is doing is one step further than what the INC did.

The thing about Modi is that he is a good campaigner and can project himself as a strong leader. And he was the CM of a state, whereas Tytler is more or less a nobody.

Let's see what ends up happening. Count me in the "160 club" you mentioned a couple days back. I want a BJP victory more than a Modi victory.

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Karnataka and to a lesser extent Maharashtra outside Mumbai and Chhattisgarh stand out.

The national elections in India are heavily influenced by what is going on at the state level. Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Karnataka had popular BJP governments in power at that time. Chattisgarh could also be due to consolidation by the tribal government behind the anti-missionary party, which would be the BJP. Karnataka will be interesting this year. Probably the one state which will swing against the BJP due to an unpopular BJP government in the state.

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The Modi wave in WB, while being unlikely to generate much in terms of seats, seems to be helping the Left Front which was left for dead as it has been hemorrhaging cadres at the grassroots level as a permanent Left Front government seems to be replaced by a permanent TMC government.  The BJP, unlike in 2009, is running candidates in all 42 seats which will cut into the TMC and to some extent INC vote based.  If Left Front can hold on to its 2009 vote share then it might manage to get 20 seats and beat back the TMC landslide.

I thought TMC and INC will benefit more from BJP strengthening, because larger share of their voters are Muslims who won't vote for BJP, especially Modi-led, under any circumstances.

Well, in this case in WB the voter base traditionally has been split into Left Front and anti-Left Front.  Even when the Left Front was defeated in 2009 federal elections and the 2011 assembly elections it retained a voter base of 40%-45% even as there has been some realignment toward TMC.  This time if the BJP should increase its vote share it will come at the expense of the non-Muslim non-Left Front vote bloc.  That can only come from TMC or INC and can only help Left Front.

I agree. Left front voters aren't going to vote for the BJP. TMC won in 2009 and 2011 by winning many of the voters who are staunchly anti-left and vote strategically against them. Many of these people will be voting for the BJP this time around.

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Excellent maps!

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If the exit polls are right, a strong performance by the BJP.

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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/lok-sabha-elections-2014/news/Modi-on-course-for-election-victory-exit-polls-show/articleshow/35027742.cms