National Tracking Poll Thread

[Sbane]

IIRC, Romney was trailing by 6 in the last Ipsos poll. There is a big difference between trailing by 6 and trailing by 2.

Agreed, but every day that this bounce looks more like 2004 than 1980 is good news for Obama.

I like how the definition of good news for Obama here is not as bad as a disaster for Obama. Which is quite telling in of itself.

Yes, it is good news that Obama is still leading by 2 instead of being behind Romney. Very good news actually. It doesn't matter if you win by 2 or 6 points, a win is a win.

[Sbane]

What I am hearing from people who understand policy amongst my age group (not many of course) is that while Romney won the debate, he had no substance/lied. Add in a good jobs report and the numbers don't surprise me.

[Sbane]

Didn't Gallup predict the Democrats would lose the house by double digit margins in 2010 using their "traditional" likely voter model? Are they still using that model this year?

[Sbane]

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

and it's the problem...there is a correlation between the number of democrats and the obama result. Just a fact.

Yes, and if there are more Democrats likely to vote (or are identifying as such to pollsters), Obama is in a better spot. Party ID is fluid!!!! How can we get this into your thick skull?

[Sbane]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5850

17% now say they have already cast their vote this election, and this breaks down 53% for Obama / 42% for Romney





Lol. What pure junk!

Why is it junk? You do realize a lot of people vote early and absentee, don't you? In Washington and Oregon basically everyone does. In a lot of other western states, including California with more than 10% of national voters, about half the voters do. I already have my ballot and I will be sending it out pretty soon as well.

[Sbane]

Even if I vote tonight and send in my ballot, I highly doubt it will even reach them for another couple of days, if not more. On top of that it might take them even more time just to record it on some online database.

[Sbane]

It's your unapologetic glee over whites voting as a block and, more importantly, your victim complex 'war on whites' that lets your sheet show.

Why is it "racist" to express "glee" that a bloc of voters is strongly in favor of your candidate?  Would citing the black vote in a state be equally racist? 

JJ... you're not stupid. If you've read his posts enough, you know exactly what he means, and no amount of feigned outrage will change it.

Not feigned outrage. 

I think it perfectly reasonable to look at demographic groups and cheer when your side's demographic group turns out, or more strongly moves to your candidate.

I think it is the worst hypocrisy to assign a racist reason when the other side does the same thing.   

....you've completely and utterly missed my point. You've ignored the specific poster's past contributions... analysis of the demographics is fine, but this is NOT what he's doing.

It's sad you don't understand nuance, and with that.... good evening.

I have followed the nuances.  There is nothing wrong with cheering the turnout of your side's supporters, or with stronger support of that group.  That is what krazen has been doing. 

Krazen hasn't been posting, from what I can tell, that we shouldn't have a black president or that black people shouldn't vote.  Krazen has posting about increased support for Romney with white voters.  He's happy about it, and I'd bet he'd be overjoyed if Romney would also increase his support with black voters. 

I'm certainly cheering the increased support Romney may be getting with women and Hispanic voters; I'd love for him to increase his support with black voters.

It is hypocritical to complain about this.   

What about his "war on whites" meme? That is what shows his true colors. What do you think about that JJ?

[Sbane]

Why do the Dems on this board laugh at any poll that goes to two decimal points but treat Rand as a great pollster.

Actually RAND should be taken with a huge grain of salt. I think it's more interesting since due to their methodology they are bound to be more stable. But it depends too much on how good their initial sampling was and it can miss last minute changes in the composition of the electorate.

[Sbane]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

So you think the mormon will be able to get anything done? Especially tough things like cutting Medicare or Social Security? People get pissed at the cost controls already in place, imagine what happens when the program gets watered down even more, and by a non-christian no less!

[Sbane]

Torie, your argument is valid, but its not going to help because most on this forum believe Obama has this all sown up and that it would take hell to freeze over for Romney to win.  True, there are a few Republicans who think the exact opposite, but far more Democrats think Obama has this in the bag and they refuse to call each other out.

As for me, I think Obama will win, but by no means does he have this in the bag.

Well if the unthinkable for so many apparently actually happens, we will need to remember to be good Christians, and minister to their aches and pains and angst with empathy and compassion then. Does Atlasia have a "first aid" station?

So you think the mormon will be able to get anything done? Especially tough things like cutting Medicare or Social Security? People get pissed at the cost controls already in place, imagine what happens when the program gets watered down even more, and by a non-christian no less!

Oh, I think whomever is elected is going to have an absolutely miserable time, as the just massive disconnect between campaign rhetoric and reality (of which both campaigns are totally and absolutely guilty) slowly percolates into the minds of the masses. They are in for a rude shock whomever is elected - and they won't be happy. They will feel like they were lied to actually.

They're all crooks! Rabble, Rabble, Rabble!