42% McCain, and 37D/32R/31I are both quite reasonable. This one looks accurate.
The point: even with an electorate more R in 2012 than in 2008, President Obama wins Wisconsin decisively. Wisconsin is already a disaster for Republicans.
It's not a tier 1 pickup, but it doesn't have to be.
NC and VA look pretty bad for the Republicans too though. As for Colorado and Nevada.....
Honestly, Ohio seems to be the only bright spot for Republicans, if that.
Pennsylvania is looking pretty good for the pubs all things considered.
We'll see. I doubt it though. The Republicans already maxed out their performance in the west. I guess they could do much better in places like Erie and Scranton, but it's the burbs that are going to decide how things go. And if Obama can't do well enough there to win, I doubt he is winning VA.