I still think its going to come down to suburban Philly margins
In 2004 Kerry won the main suburban counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery) by 7% and won statewide by 2.5%. That comes down to basically a 5% margin to win statewide. Now Toomey likely does a little better out west than Bush did, and Philly proper might make a lower % of the electorate than in 2004, but 10 points is probably the magic number. Sestak wins suburban Philly by 10 points he will likely win, if its in the 8-10 point range its pretty much a dead tossup, anything less than that he is in trouble.
Considering that PA-8 seems to be going Republican, as well as the open seat in PA-7, it's not looking good for Sestak wouldn't you say?
