US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

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Given the news that they're going to give Holden a safer district, here's what I imagine the Philly area might look like, if they keep the Bucks district and the Lancaster district intact:



Pitts's district in light blue is freed from having to crack Reading, so it takes the bluest parts of Chester County.  He's still at 51-48 McCain.  Meehan, in pink, is at 51-48 Obama, down from 56% Obama before.  Gerlach's district in purple is incomplete - it depends on how much of the Reading area you give to Holden, but Gerlach will likely end up stretching to Lebanon and maybe even the western part of Schuylkill County - but will almost certainly be at least a 50-50 McCain district.  Can't do much with Fitzpatrick if Bucks stays together, but I did give him the most GOP section of Montgomery County to go with GOP areas of NE Philly.  The Obama % is down from 54% to 52.7% in his district. 

The Dem pack is a bit mischievous.  The green district is entirely within the Philly city limits but is 57% white.  Brady doesn't live in it, but he can move. 

Blue is 51% VAP black for Fattah.  Tan is 43% VAP black to 41% white - it would be amusing watching a primary challenge to Schwartz, and (in both of these districts) seeing affluent suburban liberals represented by inner-city blacks.  The additional benefit is that, if a black takes this seat, Dems might be a bit more constrained if and when they get control of redistricting back. 

Is this really necessary? You can still accomplish the Dem pack without having to get rid of 2 black districts. All you are doing is making your map vulnerable. Give Schwartz a white dem pack and everyone stays happy, and it's not as if this map helps the Republicans at all. You're just trying to be a douche to the Dems aren't you?

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CD-1 Black VAP%- 44.6%, White VAP%-43.3% Obama-80.2-19.2
CD-2 Black VAP%- 45.3%, White VAP%- 28.9%, Hispanic VAP-18.3% Obama 86.3-13.2
CD-3 Obama 57.4-41.3
CD-4 Obama 57.4-41.3
CD-5 Mccain 59.6-39.1
CD-6 Mccain 50.8-48
CD-7 Obama 59.7-40.3
CD-8 Obama 60.1-39.1
CD-9 Mccain 61.2-37.7
CD-10 Mccain 57.4-41.3
CD-11 Obama 60.7-38.3
CD-12 Mccain 60.9-37.9
CD-13 Obama 59.3-39.6
CD-14 Obama 59.7-39.3
CD-15 Obama 60.5-38.3
CD-16 Obama 53.4-45.4
CD-17 Mccain 60.5-38.5
CD-18 Mccain 57.8-41.1

It's a ruthless Dem gerrymander just in case it's not clear. Though it's not good enough for Torie, apparently.

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Close up of Philly.

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So there is only one Black seat? With one black seat, I could do that too.

You got that killer instinct though. I mean Philly to rural areas north of Allentown lol. And your 1st almost looks discontinuous.

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Here's my fair map. I was going for two black districts in Philly, unlike in Torie's map. The 8th picks up northeast Philly instead of upper Montgomery like Torie did. Putting NE Philly with lower Bucks makes sense to me. And putting upper Montco with Chester does as well, as I did in the 6th. The 17th picks up the Harrisburg area mostly and Holden's part of Schuykill.

Here are the Obama numbers for a few districts. Torie, can you post the numbers from your map as well?

8th- 53.7-45.2 Obama
6th- 54.7-44.2 Obama
7th- 59.9-39.2 Obama
15th- 55.7-42.9 Obama
11th- 56.5-42.3 Obama
13th- 61.3-37.9 Obama
17th- 52.9-46 Mccain
14th- 64-35 Obama
4th- 51.4-47.7 Mccain
3rd- 50.3-48.4 Obama

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Is it likely a CD-16 like this will be drawn? It seems to make all the other districts much easier to hold for the Republicans, and looks fairly nice. In addition to a Dem pack which goes in and takes in the most Democratic parts of Delaware and Montco, that is what the Republicans need to do to keep their gains. The 16th as I have drawn it is about 50.7-48.3 Mccain  and the average is 57.6-42.4 Republican.