What would an Obama defeat look like in 2012?

[Sbane]

I see the strongest swings against him occuring in the midwest if he were to lose. I also see him doing much worse in the rural west, which would mean a state like Montana would be out of reach even if Obama gains votes from last time around. If Obama loses I see states like Michigan and Wisconsin becoming 50-50, and maybe Oregon. He will lose Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa. I can see him holding on to Nevada even while losing, which I am sure a lot of people will disagree with. I basically see him losing most strength in places where whites swung a lot towards him, and Nevada is not one of those places.

For example I expect Florida to trend towards Obama, but if Obama is losing he will probably lose the state since he didn't do too well there to begin with. Same with North Carolina.

[Sbane]

like Kerry 2004 + CO + IA

Obama wins CO but not NV or NM?

[Sbane]

I believe this would be a slight Republican wins in 2012, what alot of you guys are not taking in count is the trends in each states. I believe in 2012 we will start to see a different EV map forming..

Not a bad map. But you do seem to be overstating Obama's strength in Colorado and Virginia while understating his strength in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Wherever there was a large swing towards Obama, there is also a greater chance they will swing hard against Obama. Obama might not have done so well in PA or MN, but there is a strong Democratic base in both states. In Colorado and Virginia, Obama won due to his strength with independents. These are the people who are abandoning Obama right now.