Tasmania 2014 (user search)
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Author Topic: Tasmania 2014  (Read 6211 times)
Smid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,151
Australia


« on: January 23, 2014, 06:37:48 PM »

Brenton Best is still as outspoken as ever;

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-23/tasmanian-labor-mp-calls-premier-a-green-as-party-braces-/5216086

Best holds a seat in Northern Tasmania, where Labor has had to bear the brunt of a massive collapse in public support.

Tasmania uses a curious form of proportional representation (Robson Rotation) that does not permit HTV cards and means that individual MPs need to maintain a high personal profile and therefore personal vote, rather than simply rely on ticket votes. I suspect this encourages a lack of discipline and individually rewards disunity, while punishing the brand, this story being the case in point.

He's basically trying to drum up his own personal support, at the cost of talking down his own party and colleagues.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,151
Australia


« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2014, 06:46:17 PM »

23% undecided is quite large...

Leaving undecided voters in the polling results, Liberals would obviously be less than 50%, and is the only party with more support than there are undecided voters.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,151
Australia


« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2014, 08:51:21 PM »

23% undecided is quite large...

Leaving undecided voters in the polling results, Liberals would obviously be less than 50%, and is the only party with more support than there are undecided voters.

It's actually suspiciously high... my immediate thought is if it is true - 23% undecided, this close to the election suggests a typical protest electorate, therefore very unpredictable.

My interpretation is generally that a high number of undecideds are people who don't want to vote for the party they have voted for all their life (typically a governing party, but could be an opposition that is well and truly unelectable). They don't want to vote for the party they have never voted for and are waiting for the party they support to offer them something that will convince them to not vote against their party - and virtually any excuse will do (but if they don't get the excuse, they will reluctantly vote against the party that they fell has let them down so badly... see Qld Liberals 2001, NSW and Queensland Labor in the last election in those states).

I thought that Labor distancing itself from the Greens a few weeks ago might just have offered them the excuse they needed, but this poll suggests possibly not/voters saw it as cynical, given the Parliament had already risen.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,151
Australia


« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2014, 05:33:22 PM »

He thought his own election was rigged and he prevailed despite the Electoral Commission's best efforts. Conspiracy  theorist gonna theorize...
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