Alberta 2012

[Smid]

CBC's full size map: http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/albertavotes2012/map/fullscreen.html#/3

[Smid]

7-3 PC. What's going on?

What Nichlemn said. Little Bow was PC lead when the first poll came in.

[Smid]

Edmonton-Gold Bar... One poll in, Wildrose at 100% (11 votes)

[Smid]

Link Byfield is back in front in Barrhead-etc.

[Smid]

Rob Anderson next WRP leader? Or do they need to target further North and go with someone like Link Byfield?

I'm sorry to see Ted Morton trailing.

Calgary-McCall... the only riding where PC is neither first nor second?

[Smid]

Why are CBC's total numbers for 'leading' going down?

Possibly due to an increase in the first column - 'elected'?

[Smid]

Only 12 polls remaining to be counted in Fort Mac-Wood Buffalo and incumbent WRP (floor-crosser) is trailing by ~200 votes.

About half the polls counted in C-Glenmore, and the incumbent WRP (floor-crosser) is trailing by a substantial amount.

[Smid]

Elections Alberta has their page working: http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm

And Senator-in-Waiting results: http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsSNE.htm

[Smid]

PC probably had the greater voter database and therefore a more coordinated GOTV campaign.

[Smid]

Either St Albert is over-populated following the redistribution, or there is incredible turnout up there (or both).

[Smid]

I was doing a Wildrose map and a PC map to supplement Earl's winner map, but some of the ridings... first Elections Alberta says all polls are reporting, then they'll change and show not all polls reporting, then they'll show all polls reporting and new figures?

[Smid]

CBC seems to have stopped updating. According to Elections Alberta, the Liberals won Calgary-McCall.

The data entry temp at CBC has probably been sent home to bed, so they don't have to pay him overtime...

[Smid]

Ha. Well, Im off to bed now. Will have to update the map sometime tomorrow.

I'm about to leave, too. I'll email you what I've done, in case you want to use any of it.

[Smid]

Looks good, trebor, but I think Wildrose picked up Calgary-Fish Creek, as well, from what I can see.

[Smid]

As Marokai says, it's seat distribution rather than simply being FPTP. Even under preferential voting, WRP is unlikely to have gained many extra ridings. Only under a proportional system would they likely have had a substantial improvement in representation.

[Smid]

I think the expectation that Wildrose would win meant that people were more cautious voting for them and considered how they would govern. The PC scare campaign managed to spook enough voters into going with "better the devil you know..." They probably now form a large-enough opposition that voters will be more comfortable with them next election (assuming no awkward gaffes).

I think their polls really shot up once the campaign was called, if I remember correctly. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember polling in the low-to-mid-twenties as recently as the start of this year. This result is still a ten percent improvement in on those figures. I think the polls represented decided voters, and I was reading with one of the final polls, a report of a high number of undecideds. Presumably the other polls were the same. If those undecideds were being excluded from the polls, and then predominately broke for the incumbents, that could explain much of the election-day swing (plus, the benefit of incumbency meaning better voter lists and therefore a stronger GOTV campaign). Those undecideds are likely also disaffected with the government, but just unwilling to vote Wildrose this time. This probably bodes well for WR next election, particularly with the outcome this time deviating so far from expectations.

I don't think strategic voting made much difference, except perhaps in E-Riverview and E-Gold Bar (I suspect some progressives in those seats are feeling pretty filthy at helping re-elect a PC majority). It will be interesting to see the C-McCall polls, but it would be ironic if Liberals voting strategically for PC almost managed to split the non-WR vote enough to almost elect the WR candidate.

[Smid]

Earl and Hashemite both have maps up on their websites, but no one has uploaded one here, so I did:

2012 Alberta General Election Results




Obviously this map shows the primary vote of the winning party in each riding. Bigger versions available in the gallery.

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - PC Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - Wildrose Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - Liberal Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - NDP Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - Alberta Party Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - Evergreen Party Vote

[Smid]

Excellent work, Smid. I was wondering if I was going to have to do those myself

Ha! Sorry to give you a fright! I was worried while I was finishing them that you were also working on them and that one of us would find the other had completed them and we'd double-up the work. Feel free to use them as you see fit.

Lesser Slave Lake surprises me. I'm sure I saw in the Census stats somewhere that it is majority First Nations, and I am always surprised it doesn't have a higher Liberal/NDP vote. PC vote was a smidgeon under 50% and Wildrose just under 40% (so both were nearly in the next-darker category).

I'd like to work on some Senator-in-waiting maps, but I'm still thinking about how to go about them, since there are three candidates per party and the NDP doesn't run.

Edit: Oh, and thanks for the compliment!

[Smid]

Well, take a look at my 2004 Senator map, Smid. It's in this thread, but also on my site under "Alberta maps".

BTW, I'm reading Hashemite's analysis on his site. Very well done (as always). I think I learned a bit or two myself, despite immersing myself in Alberta political history/geography these past few weeks.

I enjoy reading both your sites - you always have the primary vote of winning candidate map, and he always has the margin of win map, so the two provide a good overview of both ways of looking at the election results. You both invariably have different items of information in there, too, which is also very handy and enlightening.

I'll take a look for your Senate maps from 2004 and have a crack at this election.