What percent of the vote would Obama have sans the financial crisis?

[Smid]

I think he would have prevailed with a 3-4 margin. He would have lost IN and NC, probably FL and maybe OH.

I don't know about Indiana... the state swung pretty strongly in the 2006 mid-terms against Congressional Republicans, so it's possible that they may have continued that theme by giving them another thump in 2008.

[Smid]

I think he would have prevailed with a 3-4 margin. He would have lost IN and NC, probably FL and maybe OH.

I don't know about Indiana... the state swung pretty strongly in the 2006 mid-terms against Congressional Republicans, so it's possible that they may have continued that theme by giving them another thump in 2008.

The thing is, he won IN narrowly even with the financial crisis, so you'd have to give the crisis little weight for this to happen.

That's true enough, although it's also possible that the financial crisis re-inforced people's vote for him, rather than caused people's vote for him, however I'm merely being devil's advocate now...