Can any of the people who are defending Palin name one group that she'll appeal to who would have voted for Obama otherwise? She'll do well among old white men, the rich, and...? Moderates (of both parties) hate her, women hate her, minorities hate her, and young people hate her. Where exactly is she going to improve on McCain's numbers?
This is a best case for Palin. Assuming that the Republican handlers keep her away from the media like they do for the teabagger candidates, she might avoid getting her ass blown completely out of the water. Otherwise, its all downhill from there.
Well, she also appeals to social conservatives much more than McCain ever could. The thing about Sarah Palin is that the people that love her REALLY REALLY love her, and are motivated to show up and vote for her. As of right now, Obama does not have that big of an appeal among his base. I don't think Sarah Palin would win, but my point is that she wouldn't lose in a 400+ landslide because she would bring her supporters out to vote in droves. I don't think that the people that hate her would be as enthused and energized to vote against her.
Anyway, in your map, you have Sarah Palin doing better than McCain did against Obama, which would be a moral victory for the GOP, as Wilson is the only President to win re-election with less electoral votes than his first election. That being said, I think she could take Missouri, though it would be close (maybe swap Virginia for Missouri).
My map assumes a couple of things. For starters, I doubt that 39% of the electorate will be made up of Democrats in 2012. That said, Palin isn't going to get 10% of Democrats or 44% of Independents as McCain did. She'll probably do much better than 78% of conservatives, but there is no way she gets 10% of liberals and would find a way to come up short of the 39% of moderates who backed McCain. Palin wouldn't be able to run away from the far-right wing image she's built for herself, especially not if she's counting on social conservatives as you seem to suggest. this means a big sour taste in the mouth of moderates/independents of all stripes.
So, technically you could say that Palin improved on McCain's numbers in my map, but this would mostly be an issue of voter demographics and would likely have nothing to do with Palin's presidential merits as compared to Obama. Again, I also assume that her handlers would force her to run a Dewey '48 sort of campaign where she doesn't say anything that isn't scripted and takes no interviews that aren't guaranteed to be friendly. If they let her speak freely, she is going to implode in a Goldwater like manner and this "best case" for Palin would fall well outside the realm of possibility.
Of course, this all falls under the assumption that Palin could survive a Republican primary, which I strongly doubt would ever actually happen. Like I said in the other thread, she wont be able to pin her woes on mean, elitist Democrats when the majority of the criticism will be coming from Republicans. Said simply, I don't think she can survive without the entire GOP apparatus up her ass as they have been since 2008. She's a cultural figure and cultural figures don't last long when their loyal following starts asking questions
(Note: I'm sorry if this sounds disjointed and confusing, I've been fighting the flu the past week or so and I'm totally wrecked on Nyquil
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