2024 South Korean legislative election (April 10th)

[Logical]

300 seats contested, 254 (+1) seats elected by FPTP, 46 (-1) seats by AMS PR.

The two major parties are the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and the conservative People's Power Party (PPP). They are the latest incarnations of well established liberal and conservative political traditions that have gone through more splits, rebrands and mergers than I can keep track of.

In the majority of FPTP districts it is a straight fight between the DPK and PPP. A couple of independents might win, left wing Justice Party veteran Sim Sang-jung should keep her seat and the far left Progressive Party could retain the seat they won in a by-election.

The PR section is whole different beast as the result of a botched attempt at electoral reform. The two main parties will be running satellite lists to circumvent the electoral system. DPK's satellite list is called the Democratic Alliance of Korea (DAK) and includes candidates from the far left Progressive Party and other smaller progressive parties. PPP's satellite list is called the People's Future Party (PFP).

The Justice Party is running in an electoral alliance together with the Green Party but it seems that they will struggle to repeat their performance in 2020.

There are a couple of new parties that could win seats in the PR section, most notably the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) of disgraced former DPK Minister of Justice Cho Kuk (the party's name itself is a pun on his name which literally means Fatherland).  Cho was a close confidante of former DPK President Moon and an influential figure during his administration before his children's peculiar academic records came to light. He was found guilty and sentenced to two years of jail (although he could remain free to campaign until the Supreme Court confirms his sentence) for falsifying his daughter's academic achievements so she could be accepted in medical school. The chief prosecutor of his case was Yoon Suk Yeol (now president) and Han Dong-hoon (now PPP interim leader and 2027 PPP Presidential frontrunner) .

Cho is running a highly personal campaign against Yoon, accusing him of creating a dictatorship of prosecutors and casting himself as a victim, he also accused the DPK being useless in fighting Yoon. Some astute observers however, see this as a ploy by DPK to boost the turnout of their base. The RKP is running only in the PR section and Cho himself has expressed openness to a post election merger with the DPK. In 2020, some members of the DPK ran separately in the PR section as the Open Democratic Party (ODP), they would rejoin the DPK in 2022. It seems to me that they are doing the same trick again.

New Reform Party (NRP) is another party founded by a disgraced politician. Lee Jun-seok is an anti-feminist and former PPP leader who was kicked out after a sexual extortion and bribery scandal. Although the party claims to be moderate, a quick look at the party's candidate lists shows that it consists mostly of Lee's hardcore supporters from the PPP and rejects from the main parties.

On the other hand the DPK has not had a great time at the opposition. The party suffers from infighting between pro and anti 2022 Presidential candidate and leader Lee Jae-myung factions and whether to cooperate or block President Yoon's agenda. Lee Jae-myung is under investigation for corruption during his time as mayor of Seongnam. 30 MPs of his own party consented to his arrest in 2023. A part of the anti Lee Jae-myung faction have broken away and formed the New Future Party (NFP) under former DPK PM Lee Nak-yon.

The NFP and NRP tried to form a centrist axis against both major parties but the attempt lasted less than two weeks. The two new parties will be running on their own which greatly reduces their appeal.

Lastly the far right Evangelical Liberty Unification Party (LUP) might at last win a seat as the effective threshold for winning a PR seat has been lowered to ~2%.

Latest polls predict that the DPK is on track to keep their majority as voters would rather see the opposition retain the National Assembly as a check on the unpopular PPP President Yoon. District polls in key swing constituencies tell the same story with DPK candidates opening decent leads over PPP candidates.

District polls list : https://poll-mbc.co.kr/poll2024/

[Logical]

It's not looking pretty for PPP indeed. Polls have them behind in every competitive district in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Busan and they are looking at a wipeout in Incheon.

Another thing of note is the total bipolarization between DPK and PPP in FPTP districts. Justice Party Sim Sang-jung and the incumbent Progressive Party MP are far behind in third place in their districts behind the PPP candidates. If polls are accurate no third party or independent candidate will win a district seat for the first time ever.

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In Sejong City B district the DPK candidate was dropped after he was caught lying on his nomination papers. The race is now between PPP and NFP and is seen as NFP's best chance at winning a district seat. It's a pretty safe DPK seat so DPK voters will most likely back NFP over the conservatives.

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I have a question about the DPK. They´re the more "liberal" party compared to PPP, but not liberal in a "Western" sense, right?? I read many including the former President Moon are pretty conservative on social issuses.

Relatively more liberal than the PPP, anyway. For example the DPK is clearly more favorable to workplace gender equality than the PPP. South Korea is a quite socially conservative society in a lot of ways, though, and its politicians are for the most part more conservative than the public.

I assume you are referring to Moon’s anti-LGBT comments, but the difference there is that every PPP politician believes the same things while only some DPK politicians do, and the DPK including Moon officially support LGBT discrimination protections while PPP does not. Imagine the U.S. in around 2000-2004 as a pretty good analogue.

So it will take some time til it gets major LBGT reforms, right??

I read that the current leader and former presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung is more on the liberal-progessive side of the party.

If SSM gets legalized it will be by the courts not the legislature. The current national obsession of South Korea's political class is solving the collapsing fertility rates. Yet instead of tackling the root cause which is SK's insane work culture, they spend their time pointing fingers at the feminists, gays and the Japanese and implenting measures that was proven ineffective in other countries.

[Logical]

I have some questions about Seoul. If I understood the city is more or less a swing area, Yoon won there (and therefore the election) due to many people being angry about the rising costs for renting and living in general. Is that right??

And about the city districts: What are the strongholds of the DPK and the PPP?? For the latter probably the more affluent like Gangnam??

And where can I find the election results for Seoul at the last election by districts??

The quick and simple:
Gangnam = Very expensive/elite, home of chaebol execs, titanium PPP
Central Seoul = Lots of civil servants and students, used to be conservative until 2010s then lean DPK as demographics shift but swung back to the right in 2022
Suburbs and satellite towns = Lean DPK, generally more working class and filled with provincial immigrants and people priced out of Seoul

http://info.nec.go.kr/m/main/showDocument.xhtml?electionId=0000000000&topMenuId=VC&secondMenuId=VCCP09
All past election results can be found here but you need to be able to read basic Korean to understand it.

[Logical]

Early voting starts today. Final national and constituency polls do not see an improvement in PPP's fortune. They're headed for a third straight defeat in National Assembly elections.

Prediction
FPTP
DPK 150-175
PPP 78-103
NFP 1

PR
PFP 15-18 (PPP satellite)
RKP 13-16 (DPK PR splinter)
DAK   7-9 (Official DPK satellite)
NRP   1-2
NFP   0-2
GJP   0-1
LUP    0-1

Total
DPK + DAK 163-193
PPP + PFP 93-121
RKP 13-16
NFP 1-3
NRP 1-2
GJP 0-1
LUP 0-1

DPK and allies may win the 2/3rds supermajority required to impeach the president or revise the constitution.

[Logical]

DPK and allies may win the 2/3rds supermajority required to impeach the president or revise the constitution.

Question by someone who doesn't follow SK politics as much as many other countries: how realistic is this possibility if the DPK gets 2/3s? Like every single approval poll finds the President in the low 30s and strong disapproval above 50. It's not like people are leaping to defend him. However,  from what I can tell, this is just cause of inflation, foreign policy errors, and taking unpopular positions on domestic issues. Nothing even comparable to Park, who by example kinda sets the bar for impeachment.

Pretty unlikely unless they find some serious abuse of power or influence peddling. Last time the conservatives attempted to impeach President Roh for nakedly partisan reasons it backfired on them so badly a liberal party won a majority in the NA for the first time ever.

[Logical]

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-04-02/national/politics/Turnout-for-overseas-voting-hits-record-high-of-628-percent/2016671
Record turnout of 62.8% in overseas voting for NA elections. However it is still lower than 70-80% turnout in overseas voting for Presidential elections.

[Logical]

It seems these dummy PR parties are formed before the election and disbanded after the election with elected MPs going back to the true parent party.  At this stage, they should just get rid of this rule that caps PR seats since everyone has a de facto workaround.

Last I checked RKP is not running any FPTP candidates and will support DPK.  Is that still the case?

The 10 or less seats they get from reinstating parallel voting isn't worth the negative public reaction. It also allows the major parties to run single issue dummy parties to rally their base so the system doesn't really hurt them at all.
Yes, RKP supports DPK everywhere in FPTP seats.

Thanks. Where did you find this graphic??

Yonhap via Google

[Logical]

It seems these dummy PR parties are formed before the election and disbanded after the election with elected MPs going back to the true parent party.  At this stage, they should just get rid of this rule that caps PR seats since everyone has a de facto workaround.

Last I checked RKP is not running any FPTP candidates and will support DPK.  Is that still the case?

The 10 or less seats they get from reinstating parallel voting isn't worth the negative public reaction. It also allows the major parties to run single issue dummy parties to rally their base so the system doesn't really hurt them at all.
Yes, RKP supports DPK everywhere in FPTP seats.

Thanks. Where did you find this graphic??

Yonhap via Google

Thanks. So Gangnam and Seocheo are the most affluent districts of Seoul, right?? And the areas Yoon won with under 50 % are swing areas that voted for Moon and the Democrats in the elections before and will vote for them this election again??

Sorry for asking all these question, don´t know all that much about Politics in Asia.

More or less so. But Seoul is extremely swingy so who they will vote for in 2027 is up in the air.

[Logical]

Final early voting turnout stands at 31.28%
For comparison early voting turnout in 2020 was 26.69%, for 2022 it was 36.93%
Highest in South Jeolla at 41.19%
Lowest in Daegu at 25.60%

Nothing out of the ordinary yet. Like their American cousins Korean conservatives prefer voting on e-day than early.

[Logical]

The PR section is whole different beast as the result of a botched attempt at electoral reform. The two main parties will be running satellite lists to circumvent the electoral system. DPK's satellite list is called the Democratic Alliance of Korea (DAK) and includes candidates from the far left Progressive Party and other smaller progressive parties. PPP's satellite list is called the People's Future Party (PFP).

Oh God, I can't believe a different country managed to replicate the 2001 Italian election with its liste civetta.

Fun fact, a recent bestselling book about contemporary South Korean politics makes a convincing argument that the nation is turning into Italy.

An aging society with drastic regional inequality?
Abysmal female labor force participation?
Dysfunctional political parties turning into personality cults for their leaders?
Politicians embracing cheap populism to avoid taking the difficult reforms necessary to turn the country around?
Trading the future of the youth for short term electoral gains with the increasingly gerontocratic party base?
Sounds pretty familiar....

[Logical]

Live broadcasts
KBS : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j8bDsGlUQs
MBC : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwC8hHYUL0w
SBS : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK52d64pI88
JTBC : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IjbQKk5MIM

All the main TV networks use the same polling firm to conduct their exit poll but they use different weights and biases to produce slightly different results. Legislative exit polls aren't as accurate as presidential exits, in 2016 & 2020 they overestimated the conservatives beyond the margin of error so keep that in mind. JTBC conducted an independent exit poll for the 2022 presidential elections and may do so again. All their election graphics are pretty fun.

Results page:
https://news.kbs.co.kr/special/election2024/countingStatus.html
https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/
https://www.chosun.com/election2024/vote/
https://www.yna.co.kr/election2024/result-22nd/index

Turnout as of 5 p.m. is 64.1% (+1.5). Polls close at 6 p.m. local time and exit polls will be released immediately.

[Logical]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAesIW0igwc
Live broadcast from the two main party's HQ. Always fun to see the reactions of party bosses when the exit polls drops.

[Logical]

Total PPP defeat. Liberal opposition to win 180-210 seats.

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FPTP constituencies from the exit poll
DPK win 142
PPP win 53
Others win 2
Too close to call 57

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Results page:
https://news.kbs.co.kr/special/election2024/countingStatus.html
https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/
https://www.chosun.com/election2024/vote/

Turnout as of 5 p.m. is 64.1% (+1.5). Polls close at 6 p.m. local time and exit polls will be released immediately.

Google Translate doesn't seem to work with any of these sites. Is there any English-speaking source reporting on the results?

Unfortunately they don't exist. Korea and Japan do not make it easy for people who can't understand their language to follow their elections.

[Logical]

JTBC did a separate exit poll with slightly better results for PPP.

https://news.jtbc.co.kr/2024general_election.aspx

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E-day ballots are counted first, then early and finally postal and expat votes. Conservatives always do better on e-day so those early leads may be a red mirage.

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Current standing for PR seats
PFP 21
DAK 15
RKP 10

[Logical]

The Assad margins DPK gets in Jeolla and the PPP gets in Daegu/North Gyeongsang will never not be hilarious.

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PR section (1.6% counted)
PFP 41.25% - 21 seats
DAK 25.25% - 13 seats
RKP 21.05% - 11 seats
NRP 3.06% - 1 seat
LUP 2.71%
GJP 1.86%
NFP 1.63%

[Logical]

DPK overtakes PPP in FPTP seats per Chosun

DPK 120
PPP 118
PP 2
IND 1
NFP 1
NRP 1

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The two seats where the Progressives are leading are seats where DPK aren't standing and backs them as part of the DPK led front.

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PR section (3.4% counted)
PFP 40.81% - 21 seats
DAK 25.60% - 13 seats
RKP 21.20% - 11 seats
NRP 3.13% - 1 seat
LUP 2.68%
GJP 1.88%
NFP 1.63%

A third of the ballots counted comes from Gyeongsang and Daegu while Jeolla and Jeju has barely reported yet so the PFP number will go down much further.