Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[Logical]

It would be a very radical move if it does happen. The Abe faction would have no choice but to dissolve too and the other factions would likely follow. LDP factionalism is much weaker since Abe's second premiership but it's still quite influential in many things.

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That's true. Formal institutional factions might disband but informal associations like former PM Suga's psuedo faction will remain.

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There will be a by-election for Nagasaki 3rd district however after the LDP incumbent who lied to investigators regarding the funding scandal resigned his seat.

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Komeito releases polls showing them behind all the time to motivate soft LDP and swing right wing voters to vote for their candidate. JCP has a chance to win but they need the anti JCP vote to split perfectly for that to happen.

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Could be voters punishing the LDP for the funding scandals.

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NHK is being unusually conservative but I think you can call it for the concensus candidate at this point.

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Final margin should be around 2-3%. JCP needed a perfect vote spilt and did not get it. Even if they matched their 2020 performance they still would've lost.

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https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/5ac6e998f43f3d957f861229556392c8c4112964

Pro-TPFA independent 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) gets heckled while campaigning with Tokyo Governor Koike for the Tokyo 15th by-election for being involved in "5-way sex affairs/acts"

They hate him because they can't be him.

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Since LDP isn't standing or supporting anyone in Tokyo 15th they are seen to have lost by default.

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Turnout for Tokyo 15th.

https://www.city.koto.lg.jp/610102/kuse/senkyo/kekka/shugingin/20240428/touhyou.html

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All three districts immediately called for CDP.

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I wouldn't look too deep into it. The CDP candidate has very very deep roots in the preferecture. Her great great grandfather was an Imperial Prince who was adopted as heir to the family of the last Daimyo of western Shimane. Her uncle was a maverick and an LDP faction leader who rebelled against Koizumi's postal privatization. Her father followed his brother and represented the other Shimane district until 2009!

[Logical]

I wouldn't look too deep into it. The CDP candidate has very very deep roots in the preferecture. Her great great grandfather was an Imperial Prince who was adopted as heir to the family of the last Daimyo of western Shimane. Her uncle was a maverick and an LDP faction leader who rebelled against Koizumi's postal privatization. Her father followed his brother and represented the other Shimane district until 2009!

And she was Upper House MP in 2007-2013.  But since the implosion of DPJ in 2012 her vote shares in various elections have been at most the low 40% against, to be fair, strong LDP candidates.  The fact she would win was mostly accepted as the most likely outcome.  The landslide nature of the vote share shows the LDP vote failed to come out or defected to her.   I agree in a national election the LDP turnout will be higher but she seems to be in a good position to win re-election in the next Lower House election.

As you well know, rural West Japan politics are highly personalitic. Unless the LDP can come up with a big name in the district she should be able to hold the seat for as long as she wants to.

[Logical]

Also pretty decent results for CPJ in their debut. Just 20-30 CPJ candidates in close seats can hurt the LDP badly in a general election.

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After running and losing in the 2022 Tokyo Upper House election and now coming in 4th in Tokyo's 15th by-election we can now say for sure 乙武 洋匡(Ototake Hirotada)'s past of cheating on his wife with 5 women at the same time is not a vote winner.   He should hive up politics and go back to being a political commentator

No he should start teaching Japanese incels and hikikomori how to be a Casanova.

[Logical]

Despite the strong result, the CDP winner of Nagasaki 3rd will face an uphill battle in a general election. Nagasaki loses a seat in this round of redistricting and the 3rd district is the one that gets axed. He will contest the reconfigured 2nd district in the general election where 70% of the territory is new to him and the LDP incumbent is pretty strong.

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Kishida might just pull the trigger for an early election after a reshuffle using the logic that things can only get worse from here.

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Press [X] to doubt.

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LDP will not be running a candidate in Tokyo Gov election. Koike should easily cruise to a third term.