Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[Logical]

MCA was not very effective at delivering pork and contracts even at the peak of their influence. They aren't going to start getting better at it now.

[Logical]

It's possible I guess, if youth turnout remains at 2018 levels.

[Logical]

The PKR incumbent for P017 Padang Serai (Kedah) has sadly died. There will be no election there and the seat will remain vacant pending a byelection.

[Logical]

My vibes based prediction, based on social media chatter and candidate quality. I am most likely off the mark here.

PH + MUDA 95
BN 52
PN 40
PEJUANG 1
GPS 25
WARISAN 8

Anyway, I'd like to thank Malaysia for making my own country's politics seem stable and boring in comparison.

[Logical]

Turnout at 4PM was 70%. We could see final turnout at 80% if it continued.

[Logical]

P208 Sarikei in Sarawak with a quarter of the vote counted.

GPS-SUPP 52.62%
PH-DAP 47.38%

Most likely the first GPS gain

[Logical]

DAP's unofficial party count here:
https://ge15.dapmalaysia.org

[Logical]

PH -> PN defectors are doing poorly but on the other hand BN -> PN defectors are doing pretty well.

[Logical]

Early results from Langkawi and it's not looking good for Tun.

P004 Langkawi (3.5k votes counted)
BN 47.24%
PN 39.26%
PH 7.51%
PEJUANG 6.19% (Mahathir)

Another example of PN overperformance.

[Logical]

MCA president Wee Ka Siong will probably keep his seat on Ayer Hitam with half of the vote counted.

P148 Ayer Hitam
BN-MCA 41.82%
PH-DAP 32.20%
PN-BERSATU 25.98%

[Logical]

Another example of perfect vote splitting among Malays in Johor

P150 Batu Pahat (54k votes counted)
PH-PKR 46.55%
PN-BERSATU 28.61%
BN-UMNO 24.11%

[Logical]

Some results from Kelantan and Terengganu are in and it's looking like a PN-PAS sweep.

[Logical]

PN clean sweep in Terengganu is almost confirmed. PN leads in the only seat BN won in 2018.

P033 Besut

2018
BN-UMNO 48.40%
PAS 41.92%
PH-AMANAH 9.68%

2022
PN-PAS 57.94%
BN-UMNO 36.04%
PH-AMANAH 5.25%

[Logical]

P146 Muar is almost final and MUDA leader holds onto his seat narrowly.

MUDA 37.55%
PN 35.02%
BN 27.43

[Logical]

PH officially won its first seat with P142 Labis in Johor. It's a hold.

PH-DAP 46.43%
BN-MCA 38.28%
PN-PPBM 15.29%

[Logical]

PH offically holds the tough swing seat of P141 Sekijang in Johor

[Logical]

If PH and allies can get at least 100 seats I think they can bribe GPS with ridiculous amount of money to support a PH government.

[Logical]

PN gain from BN in P095 Tanjong Karang (Selangor)!!!

[Logical]

Another BN to PN flip in Kedah this time, P007 Padang Terap. North of the Peninsula is looking like a bloodbath for BN.

[Logical]

Old UMNO warhorse Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah looks like he will hold his seat in Kelantan's P32 Gua Musang with around 30% of the vote in

BN-UMNO     48.85%
PAS              35.37% 
PH-PKR         14.90%

Very similar vote shares as 2018

In Kelantan and Terengganu PAS ran under its own symbol rather than PN since their symbol is more well-known in these two PAS-ruled states.
 

Wait .. now PAS took the lead here ?  Wow amazing...

P032 Gua Musang official results

PN 45.12%
BN 44.78%
PH 9.34%
PEJUANG 0.77%

Tengku Razaleigh goes down by 163 votes.

[Logical]

BN gain from PH in P133 Tampin (Negeri Sembilan)

BN 38.15%
PH 36.06%
PN 24.51%
PEJUANG 1.28%

[Logical]

PN gain P009 Alor Setar in Kedah from PH

PN 48.69%
PH 35.79%
BN 11.60%
PEJUANG 3.10%
WARISAN 0.48%

[Logical]

PN gain P136 Tangga Batu from PH (Melaka)

PN 40.65%
PH 31.03%
BN 27.27%

[Logical]

Labuan is a fun 4 way contest.

PN 28.56%
BN 26.07%
WARISAN 25.70%
PH 18.65%

[Logical]

Mahathir officially goes down in P004 Langkawi

PN 53.63%
BN 25.16%
PH 11.41%
PEJUANG 9.62%

4th place behind the PH candidate is quite an end to an illustrious career.