🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

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Also important to note, turnout went down by 5% in Amsterdam, 3% in Rotterdam and 2% in The Hague; while rural turnout is mostly holding.

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Nijmegen (Havana on the Waal)
Turnout : 78.4% (-1.8 )

GL-PvdA 34.9% (+14.9)
PVV 14.2% (+6.5)
D66 10.5% (-12.7)
VVD 9.9% (-4.3)
NSC 9.2% (new)
PvdD 4.3% (-1.8 )
SP 3.9% (-3.1)
Volt 3.6% (-1.5)
CDA 1.9% (-2.9)
Denk 1.7% (-0.1)
FvD 1.5% (-1.7)
BBB 1.2% (+1.1)

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99.3% counted, just 1 municipality yet to report. (10,3 million ballots)

The Dutch Caribbean is still to report and I don't know how or if the foreign ballots are counted yet.

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Rutte IV government parties
VVD 24 (-10)
D66 9 (-15)
CDA 5 (-10)
CU 3 (-2)

Goverment : 41 (-37)

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Rutte IV government parties
VVD 24 (-10)
D66 9 (-15)
CDA 5 (-10)
CU 3 (-2)

Goverment : 41 (-37)
Last time a government was defeated this badly was 2002.

2017: PvdA -29 and VVD -8

Oh right, I always forget badly PvdA was trounced then. They still haven't recovered.

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Exit poll VS results. PVV underestimated

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I'm pretty sure any government with Wilders and Omtzigt will last two years at most anyway so the left should use that time to be the government's toughest critics.

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Maths on the final 2 seats.

There are about ~30k votes left to report from abroad and Sint Eustatius. JA21 could still fall below the 0.67% threshold and lose their seat. If they are under the threshold then GL-PvdA or D66 will most likely snatch their seat. The votes from abroad are expected to be very lopsided towards GL-PvdA which is why the official NOS projection still have them at 25 seats and D66 at 9.

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The votes from abroad are expected to be very lopsided towards GL-PvdA which is why the official NOS projection still have them at 25 seats and D66 at 9.

Where are you reading this is the reason they don't update it anymore? I could be wrong, but as far as I know they simply stop updating the projection when almost everything is in, and if something changes then so be it.

It was my understanding that the projection was updated constantly using a mathematical model. Perhaps it is not the case. But yes, just a couple hundred votes will decide where the last seat goes.

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What are the odds some of the minor parties like FvD, PvdD, JA21, Volt and even CU ceasing to exist?

All very unlikely except JA21. The key to surving in Dutch politics is carving out a niche for yourselves and not having internal conflicts. All these minor parties have niches where single issue and testimonial voters can park their votes. They will never win more than 10 seats but the 1-5% of the vote they get is enough to survive indefinitely. JA21's problem is how their niche issues overlaps heavily with FvD and PVV and their serious internal conflicts.

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One final seat change from foreign ballots. D66 +1 SP - 1. JA21 survives the threshold with about 1000 votes to spare.

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There's a famous joke in Yes Minister about how if you accept a job at the European Commission, then your political career at home is over and that you'll have to start your own party if you want to come back. This, of course, was a very specific joke at the expense of Roy Jenkins, but the general principle...

"Skill issue"
-Donald Tusk

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Yes I am aware that the Council and the Commission are different things but your average Joe would not know the difference

 

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For the second time at the start of a new term, the Parliament asked all MPs to present their favorite songs. Responses can be found here, including Spotify list.

All three SGP MPs listing psalms or hymns sung by the Urk's men choir is extremely on brand.

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Probably not happening until after the European Elections.

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I have to admit that Wilders insisting on a (soon to be ex) PVDA member as PM to spite VVD is a really hilarious and petty move.

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Plasterk has withdrawn his PM candidacy.