Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Logical]

Question: have the Russians managed to get the water flowing again to Crimea after they took control of the North Crimean Canal?

They have
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499384801123618819

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Do American communists realize Russia isn't communist anymore?

https://twitter.com/medicalmomentum/status/1502916076560072704?s=20&t=973mwn...

WTF is this sh**t?

Every person in that room is either a Fed or an informant.

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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1503417654232682496

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Update on Chinese aid. My only response is lol.
https://twitter.com/KatieBoLillis/status/1503483167109435395
https://twitter.com/KatieBoLillis/status/1503483169911324675

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Russia Imposes Sanctions on Biden, Blinken.  Sanctions would block entry to Russia, freeze any assets there

F**k, we're screwed, man, Biden just lost all of his financial assets in Russia.

Reminds me of the joke John McCain had when he was sanctions by Russia where he said that he can now no longer go to his Russian dacha.  I do not McCain and disagree with him on all sorts of stuff including policy with Russia but I agree that comment was pretty funny.

Russian meme from 2015


Barrack: Now I can't visit Ust-Izhevsk
Clinton: My Sberbank account is frozen
Michelle: My children will not be allowed to study in Kaluga
Kerry: I won't be able to take a vacation at Lake Seliger

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Hilarious thread of Russian failures over unencrypted communications.
https://twitter.com/MorozMichael/status/1503751800247263234

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I saw videos of Abkhazian and South Ossetian Forces mobilizing and getting on trains earlier today. Putin is getting desperate. He really needs Belarus to enter the war but for whatever reason Lukashenka has refused so far.

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If true then the Winter War comparisons were very apt.

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Read this article. Very detailed story about how hostile locals helped destroy a Russian BTG and blunted the Russian thrust in the Southwest.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734

A Ukrainian Town Deals Russia One of the War’s Most Decisive Routs
VOZNESENSK, Ukraine—A Kalashnikov rifle slung over his shoulder, Voznesensk’s funeral director, Mykhailo Sokurenko, spent this Tuesday driving through fields and forests, picking up dead Russian soldiers and taking them to a freezer railway car piled with Russian bodies—the casualties of one of the most comprehensive routs President Vladimir Putin’s forces have suffered since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

A rapid Russian advance into the strategic southern town of 35,000 people, a gateway to a Ukrainian nuclear power station and pathway to attack Odessa from the back, would have showcased the Russian military’s abilities and severed Ukraine’s key communications lines.

Instead, the two-day battle of Voznesensk, details of which are only now emerging, turned decisively against the Russians. Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armor, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3.

Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple-rocket launchers and trucks, as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city. The helicopter’s remnants and some pieces of burned-out Russian armor were still scattered around Voznesensk on Tuesday.

Russian forces retreated more than 40 miles to the southeast, where other Ukrainian units have continued pounding them. Some dispersed in nearby forests, where local officials said 10 soldiers have been captured.

“We didn’t have a single tank against them, just rocket-propelled grenades, Javelin missiles and the help of artillery,” said Vadym Dombrovsky, commander of the Ukrainian special-forces reconnaissance group in the area and a Voznesensk resident. “The Russians didn’t expect us to be so strong. It was a surprise for them. If they had taken Voznesensk, they would have cut off the whole south of Ukraine.”

Ukrainian officers estimated that some 100 Russian troops died in Voznesensk, including those whose bodies were taken by retreating Russian troops or burned inside carbonized vehicles. As of Tuesday, 11 dead Russian soldiers were in the railway car turned morgue, with search parties looking for other bodies in nearby forests. Villagers buried some others.

About 55 miles north of Mykolaiv, Voznesensk offered an alternative bridge over the Southern Bug river and access to the main highway linking Odessa with the rest of Ukraine. Russian forces raced toward the town at the same time as they made a successful push northeast to seize the city of Enerhodar, where another major Ukrainian nuclear power plant is located. Voznesensk’s fall would have made defending the nuclear plant to the north of here nearly impossible, military officials said.

Mayor Velichko worked with local businessmen to dig up the shores of the Mertvovod river that cuts through town so armored personnel vehicles couldn’t ford it. He got other businessmen who owned a quarry and a construction company to block off most streets to channel the Russian column into areas that would be easier to hit with artillery.

Ahead of the Russian advance, military engineers blew up the bridge over the Mertvovod and a railroad bridge on the town’s edge. Waiting for the Russians in and around Voznesensk were Ukrainian regular army troops and members of the Territorial Defense force, which Ukraine established in January, recruiting and arming volunteers to help protect local communities. Local witnesses, officials and Ukrainian combat participants recounted what happened next.

Downhill from Rakove, Russian forces set up base at a gas station at Voznesensk’s entrance. A Russian BTR infantry fighting vehicle drove up to the blown-up bridge over the Mertvovod, opening fire on the Territorial Defense base to the left. Five tanks, supported by a BTR, drove to a wheat field overlooking Voznesensk.

As darkness fell March 2, Mr. Rudenko, who owns a company transporting gravel and sand, took cover in a grove on the wheat field’s edge under pouring rain. The Russian tanks there would fire into Voznesensk and immediately drive a few hundred yards away to escape return fire, he said.

Mr. Rudenko was on the phone with a Ukrainian artillery unit. Sending coordinates via the Viber social-messaging app, he directed artillery fire at the Russians. So did other local Territorial Defense volunteers around the city. “Everyone helped,” he said. “Everyone shared the information.”

Ukrainian shelling blew craters in the field, and some Russian vehicles sustained direct hits. Other Ukrainian regular troops and Territorial Defense forces moved toward Russian positions on foot, hitting vehicles with U.S.-supplied Javelin missiles. As Russian armor caught fire—including three of the five tanks in the wheat field—soldiers abandoned functioning vehicles and escaped on foot or sped off in the BTRs that still had fuel. They left crates of ammunition.

[Logical]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

[Logical]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

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Something is definitely afoot in Belarus. Probably not a coup but who knows.
https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1504220792908926987

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Very grim news for the Ukrainian Forces on the Donbass. Izyum is an important crossroad over the Donets and the most defendable point between Kharkiv and Donbass. Their rear is now open to attack and they could be cut off soon.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1504522422258737154

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Massive pro-war rally in the Luzhniki football stadium. Expect Putin to deliver a blood and soil speech.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504790978749779971

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Western observers (and the Ukrainian government) have been trying very hard to make this into a clash of systems and ideologies. It’s not; it really is ‘two tribes go to war’.

If you look at both nations and see no difference between them in terms of 'systems and ideologies' then I have a bridge to sell you.

Honestly as much as I support Ukraine, I would caution against this statement. Ukraine's governments post Soviet union have been notoriously corrupt and Ukraine is largely an oligarchy much like Russia. While yes there are elections that are more fair...its really just a bunch of empty promises every cycle. That is part of the reason Ukraine is literally the second lowest country in GDP per capita in all of Europe (first if one is are a pathetic Serb nationalist who can't accept that Kosovo is sovereign)

Not that different from the US then...
Besides, this war has pulled the mask off from Putin's Russia. Even your token opposition and critics have been forced to flee for their safety. It no longer pretends to be a democratic state, it has fully embraced despotic authoritarianism complete with its own fascist imagery.

[Logical]

The most lethal Russian bomb/missile strike and a terrible blunder from the Ukrainians. Why are they still sleeping together in the barracks so close to the frontlines?
https://twitter.com/ramaekers_robin/status/1505072180790444033

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I don't want to be Dr Strangelove

.......but I will go ahead and do so anyway

And voila....there you go.

New Russian missile technology being used for the first time today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-19/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-says-time-for-meaningful-talk-russia/100923654

Some new hypersonic missile that travels 10 times the speed of sound and has a range of 2,000km.

Vladimir Putin is going to test his full range of military capability (thermobaric, chemical) on Ukraine for the foreseeable future.

He is making sure Russia is match-fit for future conflicts.

Using a hypersonic missile to destroy a static storage target is what one would call overkill. No, the purpose of this strike is to signal the West that Russia still has functioning standoff munitions.

[Logical]

Fun fact: Lukashenko is actually two years younger than Putin...but he certainly doesn't look it.

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1505158167751446529?s=20&t=LHnPLAottHP1ydF24rhSiA

Putin appears to be hiding some kind of lameness but I doubt that he is gravely ill or dying.

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https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1505244711086444545

This is true and isn't propaganda btw. It's gotten bad enough that Lukashenko has to deploy the OMON (riot cops) to protect the rail lines.

[Logical]

Owned. The Belarusian embassy has been cleared and the ambassador recalled. More worryingly, there is a large build up of the Belarusian Army in the vicinity of Brest. I don't believe that Belarus has the capability or strength to invade but it's something I'd keep a close eye on.
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1505247793996341251

[Logical]

I wonder how he died. The Russian Navy has mostly been uninvolved. Its primary role in the war was going to be the amphibious landing at Odessa. But, that's been indefinitely shelved due to the Army's lack of progress westward in the South.

Edit: there are twitter rumors that he was at Kherson Air Base when the 8th Army's commander was killed during Ukrainian shelling.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1505333532876488705?s=20&t=m2d-r0S-ZsdZ0E3_Fse08g

Important note though, he is NOT the deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet! I'm not 100% sure what his role is (some sources say he is in charge of training) but the deputy commander of the Fleet is this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Pinchuk

[Logical]

I wonder how he died. The Russian Navy has mostly been uninvolved. Its primary role in the war was going to be the amphibious landing at Odessa. But, that's been indefinitely shelved due to the Army's lack of progress westward in the South.

Edit: there are twitter rumors that he was at Kherson Air Base when the 8th Army's commander was killed during Ukrainian shelling.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1505333532876488705?s=20&t=m2d-r0S-ZsdZ0E3_Fse08g

Important note though, he is NOT the deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet! I'm not 100% sure what his role is (some sources say he is in charge of training) but the deputy commander of the Fleet is this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Pinchuk

According to google translate his title is: "Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military-political work", Captain 1st Rank Andrey Nikolayevich Paliy. So I can see where people assumed he was the Deputy Commander of the whole fleet.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1505267350647586823?s=20&t=wJ3fKqdDXhcPgfjMKonfgg

I don't blame anyone for the misunderstanding. The Russian command structure is exceedingly opaque and byzantine. For example, there are 8 deputy directors of the Rosgvardiya each in charge of different but overlapping portfolios, a classic signature of authoritarian regimes.

[Logical]

Just an incredible video—damn the Ukrainians good at war time propaganda.
https://twitter.com/Nikolay_Nikolov/status/1505586549618008070?s=20&t=f0bw02CLOYYhWqpykCNiuw

To be fair, it's not difficult to do propaganda when your enemies treat the Geneva Conventions as a checklist.

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If Shoygu is "unwell" then who is actually in charge of moving this trainwreck? https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1506720788489121801

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Must read thread
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1506739285227147268