Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Logical]

Russian assault into Mariupol has begun. Don't expect any live update, power has been cut.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498579101040648192?t=Hx4bR9hta5pF_EPHutkVCw&...

[Logical]

Looking for twitter updates on the Belarus situation and I found it the worst take on the war:

https://twitter.com/italian69572412/status/1497410104559165442?s=20&t=tNsi6Z...

Imagine non-ironically using cringe and based to describe a government.

If you don't mind permanent brain damage I can show you Twitter rabbit holes of people who believe the whole thing is staged and that there is no war at all.

[Logical]

Most important thing here isn't the maps but the date these orders were issued, February 22nd. Russian field commanders had less than 48 hours to familiarize themselves, form a plan and implement their orders from high command. No wonder they get confused!
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1498645040989626371?t=LEhHRAdhZu7xC95d-Qwv...

[Logical]

The thing that gets me re: Putin is that while he has always been a vicious authoritarian, his first two terms as President were by Russian standards, quite successful. His legacy in Russia would have easily been better than Yeltsin’s (admittedly not a high bar, but still). While I certainly don’t think Medvevdev was ever a serious successor, how can anyone who ever wanted Russia to be successful—let alone one of the world’s great powers, worthy of respect and deference—see Putin now as anything other than the man who made Russia a global pariah?

If I were personally invested in a notion of “ Russian greatness”, the kind that the current regime is so big on, I would see Putin and his cronies as ruinous mad fools who have thrown everything away. Their efforts to reassert Russian power and prestige have led them on to the path of North Korea levels of toxicity. Insane.

Quite baffling indeed. With NS2 and the signing of a "no limits" partnership with China, Russia's economic prospects in the short and medium term looked bright. Rather than building on it Putin decided to piss everything away in a mad gamble. Instead of being remembered as a leader who brought stability and prosperity he will now be remembered as someone who brought economic ruin.

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-12

• Russian forces are setting conditions to envelop Kyiv from the west and attempting to open up a new axis of attack from the east that would let them encircle the capital. It is unclear if Russia has sufficient combat power to complete such an encirclement and hold it against Ukrainian counter-attacks.
• Russian forces will likely launch a renewed ground offensive to seize Kharkiv following the air/artillery/missile attack it has been conducting in the past 24 hours.
• Russian and Russian proxy forces will likely solidify the “land bridge” linking Rostov-on-Don with Crimea, allowing Russian forces to move more rapidly from Rostov to reinforce efforts further west.
  
• Russia’s successful seizure of Kherson city may allow Russian forces to resume their interrupted drive toward Mykolayiv and Odessa.
• Belarusian forces have likely entered the war on Russia’s side despite denials by the Belarusian president.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/joelmgunter/status/1499019377328504835?t=7H6HarE14wXFdy4C8hu...
Mariupol is getting being leveled block by block. This is not surprising as Russia really really hate the Azov battalion who are defending the city.

Anecdotal personal experience, but I'm seeing signs that the Russian bot farms are getting active after being overwhelmed at the start of the information war. New accounts created within the past few days parroting similar lines and linking to doctored media. Be careful and verify what you see out there.

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-12

snip

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Hey awesome maps, where are they from ? I can't seem to find them on the site you linked, which is also brilliant btw

I would second this. Is there a source for these maps somewhere?

https://twitter.com/JominiW

[Logical]

United Nations GA resolution condemning Russia has been passed.

Yes: 141
No: 5
Abstentions: 35

No info yet on who the five dipsh**t countries were... probably Russia, Belarus, Syria, ?, ?.

Eritrea and North Korea too.

     Any idea why Eritrea voted against? The other four are obvious, but that one puzzles me.

Have a look at the guy who ruled Eritrea since they gained independence. They are the North Korea of Africa.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1499409342197608450?t=CDPHtHLsmXx6OMHBWL...
I'm starting to think that Putin has actually gone insane.

[Logical]

Typical Germans lol
https://twitter.com/MKarnitschnig/status/1499538553990168578

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1499088993736138754?s=21

Gary Kasparov to remind you all, among other things, that appeasing Putin will not solve anything.

Garry is also a mad Fomenkoist, not exactly someone I would listen to on geopolitical matters.

[Logical]

Feels like we've gotten little to no updates about the situation in Ukraine itself since the Zaporizhzhia plant. And outside of the plant, there didn't seem to be much yesterday either.

- Russians in the north remains stalled in their attempt to encircle Kyiv. Very slow progress as Ukrainians have been successful in delaying their advance.
- Russians consolidating their gains in the south, Nikolayev prepares for a siege and naval landings. Mariupol is still besieged and under constant shelling.
- More activity from the Russian Air Force, at least 2 RU planes were shot down today
- Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv, unclear at this moment how successful they are

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1499865304326942727

He's not wrong. The only pro Russian people left in Ukraine are probably spies and infiltrators.
https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1499695636593229827

[Logical]

Something very strange about the death of the Ukrainian negotiator killed today. First reports say he was killed for resisting arrest as he was a double agent, but now the Ukrainian military intelligence agency honored him as one of their own. Most perplexing story of this war yet.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500209804878430208

[Logical]

Sooo, I've actually been learning some Russian lately and aided with a translator have been engaging some Russian's across platforms like VK (most effective), Instagram, Youtube, etc and have actually engaged in some pretty great conversations.

Ultimately, the only way this situation can end peacefully is if we as ordinary people stand together and say 'enough is enough' to the oligarchic mad men like Putin. No one in this hugely global world wants a repeat of the Cold War... And if we don't want that to happen we need to do our best to form friendships and relationships across the borders of countries.

If Putin can launch disinformation on our social networks and try to divide us, I can go onto Russian social networks and engage with these people one on one to prove we aren't so different after all. This is the 21st century and as Ukraine has proven, Social Media and victory in the square of world opinion can be hugely effective.

So, then, could you please translate the article linked to one post above yours for everyone? Pretty please?

https://pastebin.com/2agMRGmd

The most interesting bit to overstate it, is that "nobody" but Putin knew he was actually going to really "just do it."

I don't buy that part. It reads to me as if the FSB is trying to clean its hands from this fiasco.

[Logical]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

They have been taking heavy casualties - extremely heavy casualties according to some estimates - and morale is clearly low for this and other reasons. These things matter a lot in wars, much more than the speed of any advance, particularly in a country with only one significant natural barrier until you reach its extreme western end.

Throughout its varied incarnations, the Russian military has often been able to take casualties and still yet function at a rate that other militaries could not, but this related to the ability of the Empire (whether Romanov or Soviet) to bring new soldiers to the front or create whole new armies that opponents were unable to do for basic demographic reasons. Even so it was often a close-run thing: had the Russian army been destroyed after Borodino (as nearly happened) then that would have been terminal for the defence against Napoleon, for instance. Not only that, but sometimes things still fell through: the sheer weight of casualties suffered during the (technically successful!) Brusilov Offensive in 1916 contributed directly to the collapse of the Russian war effort and the fall of the Tsar.

The thing is, the Russian military these days does not have the capacity to do that. It has lost many of its most productive recruiting grounds (one of which was Ukraine!), the post-Soviet demographic disaster has had a predictable impact on its pool of potential recruits, it has problems in attracting genuine volunteers to become career soldiers, and the military and the state are so utterly riddled with corruption that it lacks the capacity to even enforce conscription at anything like the levels it would theoretically need.

I make no predictions as to how this will unfold (other than to say that thousands more will die and that I really cannot see how any form of military victory can now be turned into a political one: and a military victory that cannot be turned into a political victory is not a victory at all) and given the record of predictions before the invasion neither should anyone else, but certain assumptions based on the military history of Russia that a lot of people have internalised simply do not hold and it is important to be aware of this.

Reminds me of this Soviet propaganda poster.

[Logical]

Kharkiv is getting pulverized tonight. Bombs, rockets and artillery strikes have all been reported. The sirens have sounded for at least 2 hours without stopping. The Russians are reverting to their Grozny tactics.

[Logical]

Will post maps and roundups again since people want them.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-16

Key Takeaways March 5-6

• Russian forces spent the past 24 hours largely regrouping and preparing to renew offensive operations around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mykolayiv.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reports the presence of a large concentration of Russian forces west of Kharkiv that it assesses will launch a wide offensive southwest toward the Dnipro River, although no such offensive has begun as of this publication.
• Russia violated two Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire agreements, collapsing efforts to establish a humanitarian corridor to help evacuate civilians from Mariupol and Volnovakha on March 5 and 6.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has not demonstrated any willingness to de-escalate with Ukraine or the international community, nor has he provided reasonable demands that would lay the groundwork for de-escalation or negotiations.
• The Kremlin is likely laying the domestic information groundwork for a declaration of martial law in Russia should Russian President Vladimir Putin decide that mass mobilization and conscription are necessary to achieve his objectives.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed for the confiscation of assets belonging to “corrupt” Russian officials on March 6, likely to acquire new revenue streams at the expense of alienating some supporters.
• The Kremlin is attempting to deter US or European bans on Russian oil exports by claiming that a ban would devastate world oil markets.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Western sanctions to a “declaration of war” on March 5 as the Kremlin began to retaliate against foreign businesses.

[Logical]

VDV getting a kicking. 3 dead commanders and many failed missions.
https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1499437829159538696
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500791872637345793
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1500797331255570438

[Logical]

RIP HP

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500953999134150663?s=20&t=L7LJFOo_s...

He is the second Chief of Staff of the 41st Combined Arms Army to be killed in a week.

[Logical]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irakli_Okruashvili
A former Georgian minister of defence is in Ukraine with a dozen men and has engaged in combat already.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1501293013879844865

[Logical]

If you are curious on how the Russians made large advances on the first days of the war in the Southern Front then this article partly explains it. There's no denying Zelensky's heroism but Ukraine could have prepared for it better.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/world/europe/ukraine-beats-russia-mykolaiv.html

Despite near-frantic warnings from the White House of an imminent Russian invasion in the weeks before it actually happened on Feb. 24, the initial attack took Colonel Stetsenko’s unit by surprise, he said. His brigade was at a training exercise near the border with Crimea outside a town called Oleshky and only half assembled when it received the order to prepare for battle.

“If we had received the order three or four days before, we could have prepared, dug trenches,” he said.

That delay nearly led to his brigade’s destruction in the first hours of the war, he said.

The Russian force that poured out of Crimea was five times the size of his Ukrainian unit and quickly overwhelmed it. His brigade had no air support and few functional antiaircraft systems, because most had been sent to Kyiv to defend the capital. Much of the brigade’s tanks and armored fighting vehicles were destroyed in the initial attack by Russian aviation.

The brigade’s commander, Col. Oleksandr Vinogradov, had lost touch with military leadership and was forced to make decisions on the fly, said Colonel Stetsenko, who was with the commander throughout. Encircled and suffering heavy losses from strikes by Russian fighter jets, Colonel Vinogradov ordered his remaining tank and artillery units to punch a hole through a unit of Russian airborne assault troops that had positioned itself at the Ukrainian brigade’s rear.

The maneuver allowed the main Ukrainian fighting force to cross a bridge over the Dnieper River and retreat west about 45 miles to Mykolaiv, where it could regroup and link up with other units to continue the fight.

“The fighter jets of the enemy attacked our tanks, several tanks were hit and burned, and the rest remained and did not flee,” Colonel Stetsenko said. “They knew that behind them were other people, and they gave up their lives to break through the bridge to dig in on the other bank.”

The tactic worked, but the costs were steep. By falling back to Mykolaiv, Colonel Stetsenko’s brigade had to sacrifice Kherson, which on March 2 became the first major city to fall to the Russian forces. They had no choice, Colonel Stetsenko said. If they had tried to defend Kherson, Russian forces could have flanked them and cut them off, opening a road to the west, and to Odessa.

[Logical]

This could be huge:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1501233069885632515

Vlad Putin, radical Extinction Rebellion activist.

[Logical]

War crime apologia is always vile but seeing an official embassy account engage in it is on another level.

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1501913563073556498
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1501916418245279746
https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1501919224201158656

[Logical]

Looks like Russia found themselves a puppet mayor in Melitopol after kidnapping the current mayor yesterday which I reported on.

This sparked large protests within the occupied city earlier in the day.

Per CNN 5 minutes ago.

New mayor appointed in Russia-controlled Melitopol after the Ukrainian city's elected mayor was detained

The Zaporozhye regional administration says a new mayor has been installed in the Ukrainian city of Melitopol, which is under Russian military control, after the elected mayor was detained on Friday.

Ivan Fedorov, the elected mayor of Melitopol, was detained by armed men on Friday and accused of terrorism offenses by the prosecutor's office for the separatist Russia-backed Luhansk region.

The newly installed mayor is Galina Danilchenko, a former member of the city council, according to a statement on the Zaporozhye regional administration website.

Danilchenko, who was not elected by the people, was introduced as the acting mayor on local TV, the statement said.

In her televised statement, which was posted by the administration on Telegram, Danilchenko said her "main task is to take all necessary steps to get the city back to normal."

She claimed there were people still in Melitopol who would try to destabilize "the situation and provoke a reaction of bad behavior."

"I ask you to keep your wits about you and not to give in to these provocations," Danilchenko said. "I appeal to the deputies, elected by the people, on all levels. Since you were elected by the people, it is your duty to care about the well-being of your citizens."

Danilchenko proposed the creation of a "People's Choice Committee" to "solve all the critical issues for Melitopol and the Melitopol region.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-12-22/h_d7ddf51a92bd3d4c8e15397ac8b1dfe8

The Crimea/Donbass playbook. Find some willing collaborators, declare "independent" people's republics, stage a rigged referendum, annex them to the motherland. This should put to rest the idea that Russia would stop after seizing the Donbass. Putin wants Eastern Ukraine if he can't get a puppet regime.