Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Logical]

Another sign of impending mobilization. If anyone's fighting to the last (former) Ukrainian, it's Russia.
https://twitter.com/AKurkov/status/1517393092227252225

[Logical]

Do you like LOTR memes? Well good news! I have found more.

[Logical]

Excellent meltdown on Russian propaganda channels. Almost as good as the day the Moskva sank. The usual idiots are begging Putin to call it a war.

[Logical]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1516454620335415300
This might of been a false flag. Look at the time stamps

An oil depot and an ammunition storage site was hit. These are critical infrastructure for the Russian AF and legitimate military targets. A false flag attack would target apartment blocks, schools or hospitals for propaganda value.

[Logical]

I'm almost certain now the attacks on Bryansk were carried out by a Ukrainian black ops team.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1518480280100782080

[Logical]

Read this thread if you want to know the actual state of the OGRF.
https://twitter.com/Nikopol5/status/1518693294389313536

[Logical]

News from the Donbas, it appears that the Ukrainians have retreated from the salient north of Lyman.
https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1519308985731588096
The Russian strategy for this phase of the war is intense artillery strikes followed by massed armor advances which is how they were actually trained to fight. Political pressure from the top forced them to fight unconventionally in the North and leave their supply lines open to raiding.

[Logical]

The whole story is worth a read. I did not know until now how close Ze and his cabinet were to death on the first days. That he chose to stay and fight rather than flee is a testament to his personal courage. In another world where Ze chose to flee west, Kyiv could have fallen.
https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1519632455816392704

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1519686692596334592

Excellent. Congress needs to take this up swiftly.

Question for the Americans in here, this should go through almost unanimously, right?

The usual suspects (Qanon Rs & the squad) would certainly vote against.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1520020783967444993?s=20&t=tL97X5veoI5lTtV8nCp5_g

If true, Putin has speedran the megalomaniac dictatorial descent into self-destruction.

Stalin was at least smart enough to leave operational control of the war to Zhukov and STAVKA. At this rate, Putin is doing a Nicholas II speedrun.

[Logical]

UkRaiNiAns sHOuLd JuST suRReNdEr.
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1520393896165007361
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1520394294519083016

[Logical]

Gerasimov spent less than 3 days on the front before yeeting out of there.
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744417715527680
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1520744421356195842

[Logical]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1520686567001673728
Russia is losing like 10 tanks a day. My god how many tanks did we lose in either Iraq or Afghanistan?

Is it even true? Let's face it, this information comes from the Ukrainians. Not the most reliable of sources.

Manpower loss is probably within range of possibilities but the number of equipment losses are way way overestimated. For a good baseline of equipment losses go to Oryx's blog.

[Logical]

Beautiful new Bayraktar footage released this morning.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1521030972598370306
Snake Island defenders continue to have the last laugh.

[Logical]

Arguing with TimTurner is a waste of time.

The man literally believes that might makes right, really no better than BigSerg, just more agreeable.

I've literally changed my mind on multiple things since this war began (in some cases because of reasoned arguments with people), and I do not actually believe in might makes right (if you look at things overall), but you know what they say, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Stay on-topic, drive-by hater.
EDIT: I'll note that I've deleted no posts about this war, as far as I recall, no matter how wrong they were in retrospect. You can look through them if you like.

Great. Then you can have a long overdue change of opinion on this subject of Russia's motivation for invasion and just take the L. Russia's theory of Conquest here, key word being Conquest, is nothing more geopolitically complex than "Russia want, Russia take!!", which is as obvious as the nose on one's face.

We need to distinguish between what caused this war in the long term, and what has directly driven it in the very short term.

I still believe firmly that NATO expansion has had a pivotal role in creating this war, and we+European allies are the driving force in the region. Russia's hand is extremely weak. Zero need to take an L on something I'm entirely right about.

There are also things like the break of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church away from the Russian one, that have likely had a particular impact on him. Add to the growing distance between the two countries and the fact he's been so isolated during the pandemic (why did he write and publish an essay? He had so little else to do! Perhaps he was despairing that not as many people have been taking the vaccine....) and unhappy feelings of his America has always, at most, merely nodded at...

This war has multifaceted causes and was not at all necessarily inevitable, even with the existence of the "expand or die" mentality in Russia.

The problem with conflating long-term causes of this war with the short-term ones is that those are distinct and very different, coming from different places. Reality is naunced.

You should actually read what the Russian elites and silovik believe. None of them have ever accepted the idea of an independent Ukrainian state that orients itself to the West instead of Russia. It's something every Russian intellectual and leader from Solzhenitsyn and Patrushev to Yeltsin and Putin share.

[Logical]

Arguing with TimTurner is a waste of time.

The man literally believes that might makes right, really no better than BigSerg, just more agreeable.

I've literally changed my mind on multiple things since this war began (in some cases because of reasoned arguments with people), and I do not actually believe in might makes right (if you look at things overall), but you know what they say, don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Stay on-topic, drive-by hater.
EDIT: I'll note that I've deleted no posts about this war, as far as I recall, no matter how wrong they were in retrospect. You can look through them if you like.

Great. Then you can have a long overdue change of opinion on this subject of Russia's motivation for invasion and just take the L. Russia's theory of Conquest here, key word being Conquest, is nothing more geopolitically complex than "Russia want, Russia take!!", which is as obvious as the nose on one's face.

We need to distinguish between what caused this war in the long term, and what has directly driven it in the very short term.

I still believe firmly that NATO expansion has had a pivotal role in creating this war, and we+European allies are the driving force in the region. Russia's hand is extremely weak. Zero need to take an L on something I'm entirely right about.

There are also things like the break of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church away from the Russian one, that have likely had a particular impact on him. Add to the growing distance between the two countries and the fact he's been so isolated during the pandemic (why did he write and publish an essay? He had so little else to do! Perhaps he was despairing that not as many people have been taking the vaccine....) and unhappy feelings of his America has always, at most, merely nodded at...

This war has multifaceted causes and was not at all necessarily inevitable, even with the existence of the "expand or die" mentality in Russia.

The problem with conflating long-term causes of this war with the short-term ones is that those are distinct and very different, coming from different places. Reality is naunced.

You should actually read what the Russian elites and silovik believe. None of them have ever accepted the idea of an independent Ukrainian state that orients itself to the West instead of Russia. It's something every Russian intellectual and leader from Solzhenitsyn to Yeltsin and Putin shares.

Ah, the "soliviki" (i.e. enforcers)? I saw a Caspian Report video about them appear in my Youtube recommendeds, haven't got around to watching it yet.
Not going to pass up on a free chance to plug in a Caspian Report (definitively my favorite geopolitics-related channel on Youtube) video, here is the video I'm talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO88kFvlE2k

Some choice excerpts. Russian neo-imperialism isn't something Putin invented!
https://twitter.com/cjcmichel/status/1506649291485458435
https://twitter.com/cjcmichel/status/1506650496051732482

[Logical]

American volunteer with a captured BMP-2. The inscription on the side is a Buddhist mantra written in Buryat. "Arya Baala goncok sume" It invokes the bodhisattva Avalokitesvara. It's sad to see colonized Asians fighting for Russian dreams of empire.
https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974/status/1521471813594849283

[Logical]

American volunteer with a captured BMP-2. The inscription on the side is a Buddhist mantra written in Buryat. "Arya Baala goncok sume" It invokes the bodhisattva Avalokitesvara. It's sad to see colonized Asians fighting for Russian dreams of empire.
https://twitter.com/jmvasquez1974/status/1521471813594849283

A bit disparaging to think that Buryats cannot be Russian?

Russian by citizenship and Russian by ethnicity are two different things. They even have different words for it, "русские" and  "россияне". The Buryats are being sent as to die as cannon fodder as you can see from casualty lists compiled by the media because they aren't "Russian" enough.

[Logical]

Heaviest missile barrage since the beginning of the war tonight. 50+ cruise missiles according to the Ukrainians. Reports of explosions in Transcarpathia (for the first time ever), Odessa, Kryvyi Rih, Lviv, Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv.

[Logical]

No words. It's unimaginable to think how so many can die in one strike.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1521841170334289920

[Logical]

I really wish it's true but the video does not appear convincing to me. Too CGI like. No indication of what platform recorded this video either.

[Logical]

The more things change....
https://twitter.com/Guardian_Mario/status/1522908555417903106

[Logical]

This is a modern day slave raid.
https://twitter.com/deankirby_/status/1522853991314509826

[Logical]

Interesting article about Russian sympathizers close to the frontlines (yes they still exist).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61372382

A clash of loyalties is dividing opinion among residents in Bakhmut - a town on the front line in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region.

Sometimes it slips out as a whisper. More often, it is hidden behind euphemisms and shrugs - and carefully ambivalent replies. And then, once in a while, a fiercely pro-Russian sentiment is simply blurted out, like the crack of a gunshot, here in the rolling green hills of the Donbas.

"This is Russian territory. Ukraine is the occupier here," said a man in overalls, standing with a group of council workers. They had been clearing weeds in Bakhmut - a Ukrainian town currently within easy earshot of Russian artillery.

And the man was not alone in his apparent contempt for Ukraine's territorial integrity. Beside him, 65-year-old Yelena merely couched her views in more ambiguous terms.

"I don't know Putin personally, so I can't tell you what I think of him. But I don't see Russia as the enemy. We all lived together in the Soviet Union. So, let's see what happens [if Russia occupies the town]," she said.

"Putin is a clever guy, a clever KGB man," said an 80-year-old retired engineer, as she sat in the kitchen of a local cafeteria peeling potatoes. If Russians seized the town, it would "make no difference to me," she whispered, before falling quiet when a colleague came into the room.

"I'm a creation of the Soviet Union. We all lived together in those days and I have relatives everywhere. I'm not going to tell you what I think of Putin," said another elderly ethnic-Russian woman who was part of the work group preparing to plant rows of young trees at the entrance to Bakhmut.

Some Ukrainians here have brushed aside these pro-Russian comments as the harmless grumblings of an out-of-touch generation - of a handful of elderly pensioners who are reluctant to leave their homes, and whose opinions are unlikely to have any significant impact on the course of this war.

But in other parts of Ukraine, recently liberated from Russian occupation, there is evidence that collaborators may have actively assisted the Kremlin's troops. And today, in front-line towns like Bakhmut, there are concerns that pro-Russian sentiment could pose a real risk, particularly if it is shared by officials in local administrations.

"These guys are trying to have it both ways - win or lose," said a local businessman, Dmytro Kononets, describing what he claimed was the attitude of some figures in the town council.

He contrasted the relatively low-key public comments of the town's Mayor, Reva Oleksiy, to the loudly defiant tone struck by many of Ukraine's younger regional governors and public officials, and asked why the council was busy employing people to dig up weeds when they could be digging trenches instead.

"Obviously, they don't really want to prevent [Russia from seizing the town]. It's like they're just pretending. It's just ridiculous," said Kononets, adding that he knew many locals who got all their news from Russian television and believed "that nonsense".

Recall that Izyum fell because an Ephialtes betrayed Ukrainian positions to the Russian army.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/02/eastern-ukraine-frontline-scene/

Preparations extend beyond fortifying defensive positions. Deep inside territory held by Ukraine, its security services have stepped up efforts to identify suspected collaborators and Russian intelligence assets operating within the region. Several have been captured.

The Ukrainian security services have found them with equipment to document coordinates of Ukrainian military positions. Officials found evidence that they have helped Russian forces adjust their artillery fire in real time. In addition, the Secret Service of Ukraine has arrested agents providing images and videos for Russian social media propaganda.

Kyrylenko said focusing attention on those agents ensures that Ukrainians “won’t get hit with a knife in the back.” He has suspended civilian rule and imposed military control in 11 districts near Kramatorsk previously controlled by the opposition party. On Tuesday, he submitted a request to President Volodymyr Zelensky to add another.

Since the start of the war in late February, the Secret Service of Ukraine has identified more than 550 suspected collaborators in the Donetsk region accused of treason. Many are in territory controlled by the Russian military. A Russian ballistic missile strike on March 6 obliterated the regional offices of the Ukrainian intelligence agency, further complicating the hunt for Russian collaborators. The powerful explosion also destroyed a nearby kindergarten.

In some cases, collaborators have included local government officials who have provided actionable intelligence to Russian forces, shelling neighbors and friends trapped inside their own towns, Ukrainian officials said. They have also used their detailed knowledge of the local terrain to help advancing Russian forces.

In Izyum, Strelnik said, a city council member from the opposition party guided a Russian armored column down an unguarded stretch of road to avoid the Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian forces defending the city were encircled by the betrayal, he said. After a week of heavy fighting, Russians controlled the town.

[Logical]

If there is one thing you can count Capitol Hill on doing, it's marking up defence spending.This time it's good though.
https://twitter.com/connorobrienNH/status/1524101687652270082
https://mobile.twitter.com/connorobrienNH/status/1524115444105641984