Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Logical]

5,65% precincts counted
64,65% turnout

ANO 30,7%
SPOLU 23,8%
PirStan 12,8%
SPD 10,7
CSSD 5,3%
Prisaha 4,8%
KSCM 4,5%

Still nothing from Prague

[Logical]

20,98% precincts counted
64,38% turnout

ANO 30,1%
SPOLU 23,7%
PirStan 13,4%
SPD 10,9%
CSSD 5,2%
Prisaha 4,8%
KSCM 4,4%

First Prague results are in and CSSD, Prisaha, KSCM are all hovering at ~3%. Doesn't look like they'll make it.

[Logical]

35,64% precincts counted
64,13% turnout

ANO 30,08%
SPOLU 24,04%
PirStan 13,57%
SPD 10,85%
CSSD 5,09%
Prisaha 4,86%
KSCM 4,29%

[Logical]

49,66% precincts counted
63,91% turnout

ANO 29,75%
SPOLU 24,54%
PirStan 13,87%
SPD 10,68%
CSSD 4,99%
Prisaha 4,80%
KSCM 4,16%

CSSD below threshold for the first time lol.

Bloc wise both ANO + SPD and SPOLU + PirStan have 100 seats each.

[Logical]

Something weird is happening with the open list preferential votes for PirStan. They're currently projected at 35 seats but Pirates will only take 2 of them!!!! STAN takes the rest (33). In 2017 STAN only won 6 seats while Pirati got 22.

[Logical]

75,53% precincts counted
64,42% turnout

ANO 28,90%
SPOLU 25,66%
PirStan 14,42%
SPD 10,31%
CSSD 4,86%
Prisaha 4,78%
KSCM 3,91%

SPOLU + PirStan have a majority for the first time, 101 projected seats.

[Logical]

With 87,79% precincts counted, here's the seat breakdown by party

ANO 74 (-4)
STAN 33 (+27!!)
ODS 32 (+7)
KDU-CSL 23 (+13)
SPD 22 (-)
TOP09 13 (+6)
Pirati 3 (-19!!!)
CSSD 0 (-15)
KSCM 0 (-15)

STAN + ODS + KDU-CSL + TOP09 = 101

[Logical]

91,00% precincts counted
64,97% turnout

ANO 28,05%
SPOLU 26,66%
PirStan 14,97%
SPD 9,97%
CSSD 4,76%
Prisaha 4,75%
KSCM 3,76%

[Logical]

98,11% precincts counted
65,34% turnout

SPOLU 27,45%
ANO 27,43%
PirStan 15,37%
SPD 9,69%
Prisaha 4,71%
CSSD 4,69%
KSCM 3,65%

SPOLU has finally surpassed ANO

[Logical]

Perhaps the CSSD and KSCM should just merge. Call it a National Front.

[Logical]

Near final seat count by party according to idnes.cz

ANO 72 (-6)
ODS 34 (+9)
STAN 33 (+27)
KDU-CSL 23 (+13)
SPD 20 (-2)
TOP09 14 (+7)
Pirati 4 (-18)
CSSD 0 (-15)
KSCM 0 (-15)

Majority : 101
STAN + ODS + KDU-CSL + TOP09 = 104
STAN + ODS + KDU-CSL + TOP09 + Pirati = 108
ANO + SPD = 92

KDU-CSL actually overperformed their assigned places on the list slightly, but not as much STAN did. I don't think I've ever seen a supposed leading coalition partner get screwed as badly as Pirati did.

[Logical]

I calculated the distribution of seats, which explain why ANO ends up with one more seat than SPOLU despite getting fewer votes. Because only four entities ended above the threshold, the number of votes for parties above 5% in each region was relatively low. This means the Imperiali quota in each region was relatively low. Therefore we actually ended up with distributing too many seats via the regional distribution. The parties crossed the Imperial Quotas 202 times, but there are only 200 seats to distribute. In a calculation of the 2017 results with 9 parties above the threshold, the parties only crossed the quota 166 times. Had just one of the parties above the threshold passed it, the quota would have been reached 194 times.

The 202 seat distribution gave the following result: ANO 73, SPOLU 70, PiratiSTAN 38, SPD 21
In three regions, the Imperiali Quota was reached more times than there was seats available: Pardubický kraj, Kraj Vysočina and Olomoucký kraj. Therefore the seat which crossed the quota most marginally in each region was removed. This cost ANO a seat in Pardubický kraj, PiratiSTAN a seat in Kraj Vysočina and SPD a seat in Olomoucký kraj.
So with the regional distribution complete, the seat count was: ANO 72, SPOLU 70, PiratiSTAN 37, SPD 20.
Then there was only one leveling seat to distribute. Because SPOLU had the highest number of surplus votes after the regional distribution, they received the leveling seat. The remaining seat was in Středočeský kraj.
Therefore we end up at ANO 72, SPOLU 71, PiratiSTAN 37, SPD 20.

Is the number of seats each region is assigned determined by the same method? I was wondering why Prague has one fewer seat than the last time.

[Logical]

Under a closed list proportional system, here's how the seat breakdown within each coalition would've looked like, compared to actual results.

SPOLU
ODS 39 (+5)
KDU-CSL 17 (-6)
TOP09 15 (+1)

Pirati+Stan
Pirati 26 (+22)
STAN 11 (-22)

[Logical]

Under a closed list proportional system, here's how the seat breakdown within each coalition would've looked like, compared to actual results.

SPOLU
ODS 39 (+5)
KDU-CSL 17 (-6)
TOP09 15 (+1)

Pirati+Stan
Pirati 26 (+22)
STAN 11 (-22)

how do you calculate the share of each party in those coalitions ? On the official czech result site, I can't find this information
(I hate coalitions without clear share vote)

https://www.volby.cz/pls/ps2021/ps11?xjazyk=CZ&xv=1&xt=2
All I did was to check the affiliation of each candidate on the top of each coalition list.