Is Iowa still a swing state?

[user60521]

On Thursday in Iowa, Republicans drew roughly 108,000 voters for their caucus and Democrats 239,000.  This seems to support  the Democrats' claim that about 40% of their caucus participants were independents.  With that kind of attraction by independents to the Democratic party, is Iowa now a Democratic lean state? It would certainly make sense with the shift, especially in that region.  The average of general election polls in Iowa show the Democrats with 7 point lead.

[user60521]

I'd go as far as to say the winner of Iowa wins the election. For me, it is actually the best barometer of opinion-where Missouri was 15 years ago.

So you believe Gore won the 2000 election then?

Actually he did win the popular vote, and electorially speaking was the closest race I know of.  So the 2000 race I think supports that thesis.  The reason that Iowa may be a good indicator for the  general election is that Iowa is that is part of the region that usually is the deciding factor for a race.  This region is in between the Great Lakes area, the north east, and part of the south.  I call it the election belt.  This region comprises of West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa Tennessee, and Arkansas .  No candidate has become president without wining most of these states. Bush won all of these states (except Iowa the first time), Clinton won all (except Virginia), and Bush and Reagan won all (except West Virginia).

[user60521]

It's a swing state in the sense that it does not always vote for the same party every election the way Massachusetts and Wyoming do. Whether it will be competitive in 2008 remains to be seen.

That was my original point.   That Iowa may not be as competitive as the previous race.  Same with Colorado, the Republicans seem to have a healthier lead there than in previous races.  I don't think that previous presidential races are good indicators because getting a sense of the trends requires you to go back several years.  And the reasons that people vote one way or another may not be relevant anymore.  The population of a state can also change significantly in the course of two or three presidential races.  So I think judging whether a state is a swing shouldn't rest to heavily on previous races.