Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[It’s so Joever]

Dems are cooked if they can’t even do well with this.

[It’s so Joever]

Using my Snapchat Map scan which did well in finding trends in Georgia and Florida that were unexpected in 2020, it does appear there is a lot of momentum and energy to vote. Huge turnout in Johnson County, seems like NO has strong support. Still there is high turnout everywhere relative to what I expected. I know this is basically like reading tea leaves, but at least it’s not Quinnipiac.

[It’s so Joever]

Using my Snapchat Map scan which did well in finding trends in Georgia and Florida that were unexpected in 2020, it does appear there is a lot of momentum and energy to vote. Huge turnout in Johnson County, seems like NO has strong support. Still there is high turnout everywhere relative to what I expected. I know this is basically like reading tea leaves, but at least it’s not Quinnipiac.

I'm not sure how similar Western Kansas is culturally to Eastern Colorado, but if Western and Central rural Kansas votes similar to Eastern Colorado in the 2020 Proposition 115 (22-Week Abortion Ban) two years ago, then the No might win. There were counties in Eastern Colorado where Trump got ~90% of the vote but the abortion ban only 70-75%.

It’s basically the same. In fact I consider anything east of Limon to be de facto Kansas.

[It’s so Joever]

I am not dooming or blooming. I am stating what I see. I did a more thorough search (about every public story in Kansas in the past day, it took a while) and found that the unexpectedly high turnout is more or less a universal trend by district, with little variation. I do find that NO has lots of support while YES has practically none from the ones which were explicit about voting preference. Whether that is a good indicator of possible momentum/enthusiasm is your call. Turnout wise though, I’m not at this point seeing anything that would suggest much.
Keep in mind Snapchat users skew WAY younger than the population so that should be considered when looking at these cases.

[It’s so Joever]

High turnout in Johnson County means nothing. High turnout in Northern Virginia was supposed to foreclose on Glenn Youngkin winning, and it didn't.

High turnout in Johnson county means something: it means the rest of the state likely has high turnout too.

I remember in 2021 VA election day, twitter accounts like umichvoter were spamming falls church turnout reports.

This is what appears to be the case.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/mappingfl/status/1554630702078906368?s=21&t=343sr1SoELpi...

DDHQ says its only 23% in.

[It’s so Joever]

Ellis is a bit more YES than before.

[It’s so Joever]

What this tells me is that the red wave will be through a lot of GOP support but NOT a lack of Democratic support.