Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

I support a primary challenge for sure and if that fails, endorse the GQP candidate.

[It’s so Joever]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

Except...this is pretty extreme for Putin's traditional playbook.

[It’s so Joever]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

[It’s so Joever]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

Just to be clear, Modi is much more likely to align with the USA over Russia relative to INC.  If INC was in charge the India position is even more likely to be pro-Russia.  Modi is mostly responding to his own elite and public opinion in India.

I am aware, the presence of Russophilia in India is not limited to the BJP and it would make sense the political party with even more historical ties with the USSR would also be more pro-Russia.

[It’s so Joever]

Also, my suspicions on Modi's allegiances are basically verified. It's not like its without precedent, the Soviet Indian ties were always there, but this should show to Atlas and American foreign policy analysts that there is more to a country's allegiances than whether they support Xi Jinping or not.

You do realise that Indo-Russian weapons cooperation is implicitly directed to striking (among others) China?

In the past, yes.

[It’s so Joever]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You can take your Russian propaganda and shove it, Comrade

?! How is someone who is advocating for NATO members to take a stronger stance and to actually develop their militaries spreading Russian propaganda?

[It’s so Joever]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

To dumb down this whole conflict it's:

[Russia put troops all around Ukrainian border]
Ukraine: "What are you doing?"
Russia: "Give us these security guarantees. You're not living up to Minsk."
Ukraine: "No! West, step in here, we're going to do nothing for the next 3 months except berate you on how you're not properly supporting us."
Russia: "Okay. Give us these security guarantees on Ukraine."
West: "That's too much. We will not do it. Come back when you're being realistic."
Russia: "We have forces situated all around Ukraine."
West: "You're not going to invade. You're bluffing."
[Russia invades]
West: "What the hell?!?"

You can take your Russian propaganda and shove it, Comrade

Some people are just dumb.

If you actually are Ukrainian - it's hard to tell because most people on this forum lie about where they're from - I'm sorry, dude. Best of luck to you.

Do you not know it's common tradition to change your avatar to a different place briefly in support of the people of the place? Yeah its basically performative, but it's basically a similar concept as the people who changed their Facebook profile to a French Flag after the 2015 attacks (gosh that feels like a century ago)
Nobody is "lying"

[It’s so Joever]

If Ukraine somehow is spared, it will be in spite of, and not because of Biden and NATO.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember, this is still Putin.

[It’s so Joever]

Petition to unmute BigSerg on this thread to widen perspectives shared

X TheReckoning

Yes but ONLY if nobody enforces rules against mocking the living s**t out of him.

[It’s so Joever]

Maybe sending in Chechens used to fighting isolated insurgents was not the best idea (super graphic):

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1497289979747352582?s=20&t=4k3u3vCrO...

Chechmate, Putin.

[It’s so Joever]

Sadly, Ukraine is still losing, Kyiv is screwed soon, although I will pray for those fighting on the frontlines tonight.

[It’s so Joever]

It's getting close.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497419339577896960?s=20&t=kntJXow...

Cmon, hold brave men, just for an hour, sunrise is coming…

[It’s so Joever]

What worries me the most rn is if Russia is prepping a new front into West Ukraine from Belarus. I wouldn’t be shocked at all.

[It’s so Joever]

Hearing that Russians had a successful landing in Uman, bad if true.

[It’s so Joever]

Okay I do almost want to unmute BigSerg just to see what Russian propaganda is saying.

[It’s so Joever]

Zelensky alive and in Kyiv:

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1497450802851373056

This is great but Brooooooooo stop showing yourself in front of easily recognizable buildings!

You're a symbol at this point, you have a duty to stay alive.

I agree with you, but the bolded is, of course, exactly why he's doing it.

^

If Zelensky martyrs himself, after so publicly putting himself in the storm of battle, that will motivate Ukrainians to fight on even harder, I think.

If we are being honest, Zelensky probably intends on dying in combat for that exact reason.
He isn’t stupid, he was 100% told the full risks of this all. He is willingly choosing to die because he knows this will serve as the perfect example for the Ukrainian people on resistance. As a comedian he 100% is aware of the public relations impact this will have, and he’s definitely been broadcasting himself a lot. I think it’s a noble and genius idea.

[It’s so Joever]

Strategic situation as of the second day. Russians have barely committed barely half of its available Battalion Tactical Groups. There are reports that they will soon open up another front from Brest to strike at Western Ukraine.

Unsurprising and saddening because this may well be the end of Ukraine. The Western front is much less defended.

[It’s so Joever]

Ugh we could have stopped this. I am repulsed with NATO right now.

[It’s so Joever]

Apparently a disconnection from SWIFT is imminent.

Russia has stated that they will consdier this an act of war.

This is probably gonna be my last post in this forum. Thanks for the memories guys.

If they want to start a war, we will give ‘Em war! NATO will put the blast in Oblast!

[It’s so Joever]

Apparently a disconnection from SWIFT is imminent.

Russia has stated that they will consdier this an act of war.

This is probably gonna be my last post in this forum. Thanks for the memories guys.

If they want to start a war, we will give ‘Em war! NATO will put the blast in Oblast!

Okay, this is clever.

Heh maybe if I’m not allowed to serve in combat because of epilepsy, I could do propaganda work.

[It’s so Joever]

Hope Andriy is okay... according to his profile he lives in Vinnytsja...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497593214362173444?s=20&t=hspPH1jEWLzyA...

Didn’t he say he was moving out west earlier?

[It’s so Joever]

Holy moly, it seems like Russia is moving troops in Belarus near the Polish border. Putin apparently wants to threaten NATO.

https://twitter.com/demianvonosten/status/1497544786718380032

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

No way he does this…right?
But if he does, he will have made the bed.

Almost poetic, World War Two began with Poland, World War Three would begin with Poland.

Although if we are being honest, it’s more likely he is doing this in preparation of an offensive into NW Ukraine.

[It’s so Joever]

Been thinking about the fact that Russia is holding so much of their army back for no apparent reason.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that logistically they wouldn't be able to handle it.  We've seen reports of their issues in Belarus, and reports of Russian soldiers raiding homes for food and clothing.

See also, this:
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640

Soldiers say they are out of gas. Driver offers to tow them back to russia. Everyone laughs. Russian soldiers ask for news on how they are doing in war. Driver tell them that Ukraine is winning, russians are surrendering and impliest that they should too.

This is friendlier than some traffic stops in the US. They obviously don't want to be there, this isn't their war.

This morale is shockingly low. Like this is infinitely worse than Vietnam.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1497547745997254661?t=FyWfMLgBNdemMJ3g...

That’s pretty much it, then? Right?

Biden apparently hasn't made a decision yet:

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1497617588372881414

…Disgusting. He really is a senile fool.