International COVID-19 Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

We're already planning for booster shots in September here.

Are they going to use an updated version, or just the same one three times?
I know Moderna has already started studies into that and has found promising results.

[It’s so Joever]

And looks like deaths are starting to finally rise in the UK. Is this just lag, or has the link actually been broken as so many have suggested. Our eyes will be on them these next few weeks.

[It’s so Joever]

And looks like deaths are starting to finally rise in the UK. Is this just lag, or has the link actually been broken as so many have suggested. Our eyes will be on them these next few weeks.

The latest 7-day average by actual date of death is 30.4:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

For point of comparison, there are around 1,500 to 1,600 deaths of all causes in the UK on a normal day.

I understand, I am still watching the trends.

[It’s so Joever]

Looks like they will get herd immunity quicker than most - but what a price

It’s possible...but we don’t know how long it will last. Although so far reinfection isn’t common, it could be without vaccines in the long run. All this does is buy India time.

[It’s so Joever]

https://www.twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1425619567703773184

But yeah the world will continue to drive a 500km/h supercar of globalism without the seatbelts and breaks required in their new technical monstrosity, because Western populates got a bit tired of ThE sAnITaRy DiCtAtOrShIp

Absolutely horrendous.

[It’s so Joever]

What is going on in the UK? I am very concerned given that even with their higher vaccination rates, their numbers are still so high. More importantly, why did cases in India and the US fall while they haven’t for the British? What is going on?

[It’s so Joever]

Putin announced a work-free week from October 30 to bring down infection rates.

It's actually stunning the vaccination rate is Russia is that low despite the government's pressure to get vaccinated. I wonder why there is so much hesitancy there? You would expect more people follow the call of an autocratic leader.

I believe Russia has long had high rates of vaccine skepticism. Even before Covid I’m pretty sure polls showed that people living in Russia were far less likely to have positive views of vaccinations than much of the World.

[It’s so Joever]

Is there another variant in the UK? The constant high numbers seem absurd.

[It’s so Joever]

Dude please disconnect.

[It’s so Joever]

Also, if the virus is killed more quickly, there's less chance of a mutation spreading.

I doubt people on here understand basic virology, or even have common sense. They seem to think allowing the virus to spread is a zero cost game, which is just insane. They also were the types who argued "oh a vaccine is a personal choice" without understanding how the fewer people vaccinated, the more likely a worse mutation comes into existence.

[It’s so Joever]

Denmark is interestingly seeing omicron cases rise. They already were in a bit of a delta wave, so watching whether omicron replaces delta in Denmark will be interesting. I wouldn’t extrapolate death data from there because of the mixing.

[It’s so Joever]

Deaths rising in South Africa.

[It’s so Joever]

If some of the trends in South Africa hold up, I believe humans will be able to transition into a more pre-Covid esque way of life. Let’s keep watch, deaths did rise over a 7 day period yesterday and today, but both of those were so close to Christmas last week that I suspect the count may have been deflated last time.

[It’s so Joever]

Omicron has been detected in Tianjin, China. 20 cases have been found, two of which were sequenced as Omicron. Every resident of the city is now being tested.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/09/child-covid-testing-winter-olympics-526810

Will be interesting to see whether China's Zero Covid strategy survives omicron. If anyone can pull it off it's China, but I suspect it's just too virulent and they'll have to adjust, just as Australia did after Delta got into the country.

The shift will be interesting. If done right it can be pulled off, but officials will have to be careful after over a year of attacking the West for letting Covid spread. I guess people do have short memories so they probably will be able to pull it off without too much backlash.

[It’s so Joever]

Western Australia had 37 cases detected in the community today, the highest number in two years.

1 person is in hospital.

37 New Community Cases

https://youtu.be/MB9GYi0MNhc

Total panic stations, masks everywhere or you get arrested.

You are not allowed into any shops or restaurants without a digital vaccine certificate showing evidence of double or triple vaccination.

Man arrested, charged and faced Court yesterday for using a jpg if a friends certificate.

This is not a sustainable strategy.

[It’s so Joever]

China's zero Covid policy has pretty much failed at this point.

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1503804127901622276

China had THE PERFECT chance to transition. They can’t do this forever or the regim will collapse, I’m not even kidding.

[It’s so Joever]

Germany is maybe entering the weirdest COVID phase yet. Infection rates are the highest ever in the pandemic, but most measures will be discontiuned in most states over the next two weeks (federally on March 20). FDP pushed hard for it. Scholz kind of seems to concur with them. Greens are in theory pretty opposed to it, but not hard enough to let the governing coalition fall apart over it. Many state governments, including the SPD ones, are also pretty unhappy over the end of restrictions, but their hands are tied here because the federal level sets the parameters within they can act and those parameters have been defined rather narrow now. Theoretically, a general vaccine mandate is still on the agenda (especially in light of possible COVID mutations next winter), but that mandate really seems to go nowhere now, especially with Omicron and Ukraine and all. This is the era of: meh, whatever... Putin is on TV again.

As grim as it may be, the new rises in Covid-19 cases in Western Europe may offer US officials a glimpse into what they should be preparing for soon. After all, the same "following" of Western Europe trend happened in March 2020, Winter 2020, Spring/Summer 2021, AND winter 2021 to differing degrees. Of course I fully expect such trends to be ignored by US leadership.

[It’s so Joever]

Atlas in SHAMBLES!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/01/singapore-ends-outdoor-mask-mandate-covid/

[It’s so Joever]

Between Putin’s ridiculous invasion, and the CCP push to continue a strategy that clearly isn’t viable, it’s clear these leaders were never as rational as I assumed.

[It’s so Joever]

Oh and there is no turning back for Xi, the grave has already been dug. China itself may be near a long period of severe chaos and maybe even collapse at this point. I’m serious, even if all lockdowns end tomorrow in China…after so much messaging in support of them there will be a lot of confusion and mistrust to an extent that will destroy whatever legitimacy the government had. At best it will be a Watergate type thing where the entire perception changes, at worst it could literally mean regime change. And if they continue…I don’t need to spell it out.

[It’s so Joever]

In Shanghai the number of officially reported cases has been below 200 the last days (compared to ~25000 at the peak) and in Mainland China overall about 300. Beijing is next with around 20 cases, where authorities now also say that the outbreak has been fully controlled, an otherwise there are officially no major outbreaks any more.

Questions:
(1) Can the data be trusted? A: Yes, at least the direction of it can. It is clear from anecdotal evidence that deaths were underreported. However, in general as the strategy is zero covid, than any broad falsifications in cases cannot hold up long term, because if the outbreak is not actually under control, people will on masse, well, get sick that are not officially not supposed sick, see North Korea. This is the reason why despite the widespread distrust after reporting the Wuhan outbreak eliminated, there was no major outbreak again until Shanghai.
(2) What does this mean? A: Zero covid "works", if one implements harsh (Chinese harsh, not western harsh) measures immediately, and at a huge economic cost. For Xi Jinping however this is irrelevant because the political cost of losing control or allowing foreign vaccines is much greater (a poll recently showed only 30% of Chinese people would accept a western vaccine).
(3) What will the future look like? A: Brutal zero covid until at least either 13th NPC early next year or Chinese mrna vaccine. Looking like the former will probably be first anyway. And even after that it is not certain that something will change. Sad situation if you have family in China.

This is a logical take that would make sense in the grand scheme of things. That’s why you are a Chinese puppet.

[It’s so Joever]

Xi is really overplaying his hand. He is DOA imo soon.