Hillary Clinton's Maximum and Minimum EV

[RJEvans]

Based on the present political landscape.

Clinton: 390
Republican: 148

I think this is realistic. TX is not ready to turn blue, especially with Wendy Davis on the ballot this year. KY and WV (note-should be a lighter blue), while Clinton has polled relatively well there in the past, I think any Republican will likely prevail. AR will go Republican is most circumstances but I think she could eek out a small 2-4 point victory here.

Clinton: 257
Republican: 281

It may seem optimistic that her minimum is 257, but lets not forget Gore got 261 and Kerry got 251. I've contemplated FL given her current strength there but I imagine in a minimum scenario she will lose it by the smallest of margins.

[RJEvans]

Funny that we all disagree.

In terms of her minimum we all seem to disagree. I have a hard time saying the Democratic base won't turn out for Clinton even in the worst of circumstances to put her over the top in MN, WI, PA, NM and NV. There are trends favorable to Republicans in most of these states but I don't think those trends are enough to warrant them turning GOP in a worst case scenario.

As for the maximum, most of us agree she will likely win VA, NC, GA. The question seems to be AZ, MO and AR. One map has her winning AR without AZ or MO, which I find hard to believe . I'm of the opinion if she wins NC and GA, she also wins MO. So I think the real question is AZ and AR.