Israel hits back against Iran (bombs Isfahan, home to nuclear facilities)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Media reports seem to suggest the sole injury was to a 10 year old Bedouin girl.* Hoping for the best. I wonder whether this indicates that Iran's capabilities have been overstated or that they are hiding more powerful capabilities.

*Mentioned because it is powerfully ironic that the only victim of the so-called "Islamic" Republic of Iran is the kind of person it theoretically advocates for -- a little Muslim girl. She was, of course, treated by Israeli doctors in an Israeli hospital regardless of her faith.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/medics-treating-first-injury-from-iran-attack-a-10-year-old-boy-from-bedouin-town-of-arad-in-serious-condition/

[Libertas Vel Mors]

An important point:

"Iran launched 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles at Israel.

The lack of significant damage isn’t because Iran didn’t try, but a testament to Israeli and U.S. air defense and air power."

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1779421078344941749

Power-mad and insane as he may be, I strongly doubt Bibi feels this will be sufficient provocation to enter into a protracted military conflict that Iran is calculating to pariah Israel even further, particularly when Iran will say this was not unprovoked but a response to the embassy attack.

Iran vs. Israel is almost tailor-made to come across as a Kissingerian "it's a shame they can't both lose" conflict to much of the world, especially Sunni countries and the parts of Latin America and Africa where most people hate Israel but aren't particularly invested in either Islam or "resistance at all costs and in any form to the turboevil West" narratives.

These places are increasingly rare -- in fact, I think they are trending towards non-existence. Outside of Chile, for example, where in Latin America is Israel clearly unpopular? (Sometimes you have left wing leaders, ie Petro or Lula, who don't like Israel -- but in both Colombia and Brazil it is clear that the majority of people do).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

An important point:

"Iran launched 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles at Israel.

The lack of significant damage isn’t because Iran didn’t try, but a testament to Israeli and U.S. air defense and air power."

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1779421078344941749

Power-mad and insane as he may be, I strongly doubt Bibi feels this will be sufficient provocation to enter into a protracted military conflict that Iran is calculating to pariah Israel even further, particularly when Iran will say this was not unprovoked but a response to the embassy attack.

Iran vs. Israel is almost tailor-made to come across as a Kissingerian "it's a shame they can't both lose" conflict to much of the world, especially Sunni countries and the parts of Latin America and Africa where most people hate Israel but aren't particularly invested in either Islam or "resistance at all costs and in any form to the turboevil West" narratives.

These places are increasingly rare -- in fact, I think they are trending towards non-existence. Outside of Chile, for example, where in Latin America is Israel clearly unpopular? (Sometimes you have left wing leaders, ie Petro or Lula, who don't like Israel -- but in both Colombia and Brazil it is clear that the majority of people do).

For example (obviously many factors involved): https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-approval-dips-brazil-after-israel-gaza-remarks-2024-03-06/

Quaest's first poll this year showed that approval of Lula dipped especially among evangelical Christian voters, already a stronghold of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, after his remarks about the war in Gaza.
Lula denounced Israel's military action in the enclave as a "genocide" against Palestinians and compared it to "when Hitler decided to kill the Jews."

Lula's approval among evangelical Christians - who make up nearly a third of Brazil's population - dropped to 35% from 41%, while their disapproval of his government jumped to 62% from 56%.
"The reaction to Lula's remarks about Gaza seems to give a good clue to explain it," Quaest pollster Felipe Nunes said. "About 60% of Brazilians believe he exaggerated in his comparison, but among evangelicals that number is even bigger: 69%."

"The remarks were so poorly received that the president did not obtain majority support even within his own political base," Nunes noted.