2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

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Wut

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

[/b]

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

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Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

I thought it was basically a lock to become one in 2020, or do I have that off?

Definitely off. Like lfromnj said, median is Trump +3.2 and the state is trending rightwards

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Minnesota. Hillary underperformed in 2016 and the reaction has been "white people,omg, trending R". The geography of the state will benefit House Republicans but the Twin Cities will have Minnesota as a Likely D state.

No, I’m pretty sure the state is trending right.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

4 Clinton +10 districts in a state that was Clinton +2 is definitely a gerrymander. A fair map would probably be 3-1-3, with the 1 either taking up the territory of the current second or a more conservative third.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

4 Clinton +10 districts in a state that was Clinton +2 is definitely a gerrymander. A fair map would probably be 3-1-3, with the 1 either taking up the territory of the current second or a more conservative third.

It also has 3 Trump+10 districts. I'm generally not convinced by the promote competitive seats argument and instead prefer to lock in districts to match the rough partisan breakdown of a state.

So it's fair if Trump wins the state in 2020 with just 3 seats despite the political geography of the state favoring him too? Hmm.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

Here are 6 reasonably compact seats that were all more than +3 for Clinton. Given how much these seats likely trended leftwards in 2020 (with the possible exception of the blue district), I'd guess all 6 are at least Biden+5 or more: https://districtr.org/plan/112194. (Note that it will take a little bit for the districts to load properly. Also note that there may be some precincts/VTDs/units in districts that I accidentally did not colour in, but that the broad picture remains the same.)

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Anyway, here's my attempt at a 5 seat D gerrymander of Minnesota.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fdc5df0d-36cd-4a5f-a1ed-790b37e4d657

All incumbents live in their seats and get the core of their bases preserved. MN-02, MN-03, MN-04, and MN-05 are Safe D. MN-06 is Biden +4 and trending leftward. Probably 4-4 in 2022 but 3-5 beyond that and all 5 Safe D by the end of the decade.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

1. "reasonably compact" reminds me of your "fair map" Dane County split. You're not fooling anyone by describing your maps incorrectly (and why are you trying to? This is an internet forum). Call a spade a spade and say that you drew a tendril 4 way-Hennepin split.

This is an obvious pizzamander and isn't compact at all.

No, I know it's not compact on the whole at all. What I meant was, it is comparatively compact using Discovolante's district as a point of reference (shown below). Obviously I can't say any of those 6 seats are really compact at all, but they are most certainly more compact than the map below, and that is what I was talking about (though I can see why it might be confusing/unclear).

(Also, to NC Conservative, regarding the Dane County map - give me the link to the map I called fair, and I will tell you exactly why it is. Don't know which map you're talking about until you do, though, because I believe I've shared multiple maps here with Dane County separated.)

With that said, below is the map I was comparing mine to, and that's why I said it was (comparatively) compact:

Why is it so hard to draw 5 democratic CDs in a biden +8 state. The Nevada democrats did it in a biden +2 state

look on my works, ye mighty, and despair



(this still votes right of the state at large and trends are awful outside of Rochester so this would probably be fairly comfortably GOP-held in practice)

2. Use DRA. No one wants to use a clunkier site that lacks recent data.

I don't care for DRA's layout and much prefer that of Districtr's, even if it lacks a lot of information DRA has. Appreciate the advice/command but at least for the moment, I don't intend to switch to DRA.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Even if you're aiming for proportionality, it is too clear of a community of interest for a split of it to be anything other than an egregious gerrymander.

Again - which map are you discussing? You give me the link of the so-called gerrymander, and I'll give you an explanation as to why splitting Dane County is justified.

No map that splits Dane County is fair. Pick any map as you like -- no map that splits Dane is fair.