Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[freek]

I'm wondering how long the Dutch posters here give the potential coalition above, given that the VVD-PvdA government is the first one to see out its term fully since the Wim Kok years, right?

Yes, the first since 1998 (or 2002, the coalition resigned a few weeks before the elections).

I don't really see how a coalition with both VVD and GL, or both CU and D66 might survive, unless the coalition agreement allows parties to opt out sometimes. 

[freek]

That link doesn't seem towork. Hopefully this does:

 

[freek]

@Freek: Hmmm, for me it still works. Weird. But thanks for putting it up again.

The percentage of supporters by party that are sure to vote (91%-100%). The Volkskrant article says that there are a lot of young, lower educated PVV supporters who may not turn out.

Most surprisingly for me is the relatively low score for ChristenUnie.

[freek]

Huge error margins for this poll. 14-22 seats for GL. That means 9-14%.

[freek]

Good Lord!!, that a big ballot!!!  

So, you can only vote for one candidate from a single party, right?

It is bigger this time. Wider, because there are more parties (Somewhere between 22 and 27 parties). Also, VVD and PvdA have 80 candidates per district. This is too long for one column, these parties will have a second column.

[freek]

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.

[freek]

Nice, Dutch Conservative! Will fill it out myself after the debate, together with my seat prediction.

I am volunteering in a polling station again tomorrow, which includes counting. That's the part I am not looking forward too. Especially the first part (opening a ballot, find the red dot, sort, repeat) is hard work.

I do this in second-order elections (in my parents' suburb) but prefer to go to a watchparty with friends this time, since it's the general. May be making some shorter posts here occasionally from my phone, the quality of which will progressively decline as I drink more.

What's it going to be for you tomorrow, Freek, if I may ask?

CDA, as usual.

Not a big fan of Buma, I didn't like his style of opposition. Not a big fan of the current program, I am more liberal than the party. But I am also too conservative for D66, and in my opinion VVD is only interested in money and cars (i.e. the political wing of the Telegraaf) . Things I am not interested in. Which only leaves CDA, in my opinion. I am voting for Anne Kuik, #11.

I grew up on a farm in Tubbergen municipality, maybe that is the reason for my CDA preference.

[freek]

Solid choice Never thought I'd say it, but I'm looking forward to seeing the CDA govern again.

I will cast my vote in parliament, for Theo Hiddema, #2 on the FvD list. This will be the fifth party I vote for. Pretty weird idea considering that there are plenty of people in their 70s and 80s who voted for only one or two (KVP and CDA...) parties.

Yes, I voted VVD 1998 - 2003, and CU/SGP for European Parliament since 2004. Otherwise always CDA.

[freek]

Judging by the results I think the PVV "won" Hindustanis

1. lol

2. That's an amusingly old fashioned phrasing (I presume a literal trans. from Dutch). Where in India are these people from?

Their ancestors were from what is currently Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

[freek]

On the subject I'm wondering if they release excel sheets of the vote share per gemeente like in Belgium.

Sure. Maybe not today though. The Kiesraad is planning to upgrade its results website sometime this year, not sure if results will still be added to the old website.

Results per municipality 1918 - 2012 you can download here: http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1
(select a year, do not select a province, click 'csv' bottom right).

[freek]

According to Nederlands Dagblad, there are the final results including numbers of raw votes. Final turnout would be 81.3% (+6.9%).

I think that's not the real final result, but all preliminary results added up. When I add up all final results from the electoral districts, this is my result (not sure if completely correct though):

Code:

VVD			2238256
PvdA			599795
PVV			1372821
SP			955730
CDA			1302156
D66			1285837
ChristenUnie	356277
GroenLinks          959481
SGP			218950
PvdD			335150
50PLUS		327160
Ondernemersp.	12569
VNL			38215
DENK	                216026
Nieuwe Wegen	14365
Forum voor Dem  187179
Burger Beweging   5221
Vrijzinnige P.	2938
GeenPeil		4944
Piratenpartij       	35502
Artikel 1		28708
Niet Stemmers	6026
Libertarische P.     1491
Lokaal in de K.	6858
Jezus Leeft     	3099
StemNL		527
MenS/BIP/VR	726
VDP			177

[freek]

How is it possible that some parties have more votes according to ND than in the final results as calculated by you?

Errors in reporting in preliminary results I guess. Or I made a typo somewhere.

[freek]

Results per polling station (for all municipalities) on a map: https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php

[freek]

Results per polling station (for all municipalities) on a map: https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php

Thank G-d that they managed to compose this despite municipalities being annoying with publishing the results by polling station this time. This is a goldmine. You can lock me up with this for three days and I won't care.

Post funny results here, y'all.

Polling station 'Dorpshuis', Zeddam, Montferland municipality. PvdA largest party, with 23% of the vote. Probably a tabulation error, in the other polling station in this village PvdA scored 3%, and in 2012 PvdA scored 24% in this polling station.

[freek]

Good catch. Lewis told me about this polling station on AAD but I hadn't looked it up yet. The ones where the PvdA truly won are in Amsterdam-Zuidoost, Zaandam and Menameradiel.

Buurthuis Sam Sam in the Schilderswijk, The Hague has DENK at 60.25%. Don't think any other polling station can top that.

Probably not.

The polling stations won by Artikel 1 are actually  quite interesting. I have been thinking about it, and I can't imagine there have been many other examples in the past of parties that failed to win a seat, but won individual polling stations. At first I thought maybe somewhere in Groningen in 1986, when CPN dropped out of parliament. But then PvdA won 60% in Beerta and Finsterwolde, so I think that is ruled out. Only possibility I can think of is maybe a polling station in Bunschoten in 1959 (or earlier), when GPV just missed out on a seat.

[freek]

Good catch. Lewis told me about this polling station on AAD but I hadn't looked it up yet. The ones where the PvdA truly won are in Amsterdam-Zuidoost, Zaandam and Menameradiel.

And one in Winsum.

[freek]

Is there a polling district map for 2012, to compare?

There is this one, but the pop up windows that show the results in detail are broken

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2012/10/03/wat-stemden-uw-buren-a1483984

[freek]

The PVV today announced that they will stand in five additional municipalities in the local elections, which will take place in March 2018. Since 2010 the PVV have been part of the municipal councils in Almere (where they are the largest party) and The Hague (where they are the second party), but next year they will also give it a shot in Enschede, Almelo, Twenterand, Urk and Rotterdam. Enschede and Almelo are historically industrial cities in Eastern Overijssel; while Almelo is truly in decline, Enschede seems to have found a way to "reinvent" itself and is the home of Twente University. The PVV did well in both municipalities in the general election: 18% in Almelo, 15.6% in Enschede. Twenterand is a rural municipality (Freek could probably tell us more about it); they got 15.6% there. I don't really know why they picked this place; perhaps they think they have some talented people there. Urk is the heart of the Bible Belt. They will get 2-3 seats at most there.

PVV choosing Twenterand is quite interesting. It is unlike the other rural municipalities in Twente. Villages as Vriezenveen, Vroomshoop or Westerhaar were founded for peat extraction (similar to Drenthe) and later people worked in the textile industry and in construction. It is still relatively poor, with higher than average unemployment, but it is not as bad as in Eastern Groningen. Politically it is on the edge of the Bible Belt (CU+SGP 14% together), and also PVV scores higher than in other municipalities in Twente (but still around the national average).

[freek]

PVV will stand in 60 communes. All out assault on South Limburg, the PVV heartland.

Based on the map in the newspaper article it wouldn't be an "all-out assault": in South Limburg they would only stand in Maastricht, Stein, Sittard-Geleen, Kerkrade, Landgraaf and Heerlen (but not in Onderbanken and Brunssum, two of the smaller municipalities where they perform very well).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8oUOXuXgAIiX4R.jpg

Participating in Edam-Volendam next year will be a bit of a challenge, there were early elections in 2015 because of the merger with Zeevang. The next elections are planned in 2022.

[freek]

Are the negotiations taking longer than usual or is this pretty typical for Dutch cabinet formations?

No, it is clearly taking longer than usual. The average duration of government formations since 1946 has been somewhere between 72 and 90 days (different sources come up with different figures). This time I think we're somewhere around 150 already. But this level of fragmentation is unprecedented, and the last time a government involving more than three parties had to be formed was in the 1970s.

Different figures, because of different definitions. Formation of government after elections took 88 days on average, between 1946 and 2012. If caretaker governments (Balkenende-III, Van Agt-III, Zijlstra, Beel-II) and regular governments formed without elections (Cals, Drees-II) are included, the average decreases to 72 days.