The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings (user search)
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Author Topic: The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings  (Read 203471 times)
The Mikado
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« on: March 11, 2011, 07:10:18 PM »
Trump's overpriced even at 2.  Bachmann's way overpriced at 4.2.  Gingrich might be a bit underpriced.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2011, 10:01:06 PM »
Well, yeah, by the start of the primary, there should only be ~2 people left with a serious shot.  My argument is that it will be Romney and anti-Romney, and that this primary season between now and December will be a decision on who gets to be the non-Romney finalist.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2011, 12:19:55 AM »
Trump down to .1%?  Even Huckabee only dropped to .2% on leaving.  Maybe Trump's supporters were faster to sell off.

Candidates over 1%:

Romney: 25.1
Pawlenty: 18.4
Huntsman: 11.8
Daniels: 11.0
Cain: 6.5
Palin: 6.0
Bachmann: 5.2
Gingrich: 4.5
Dr. Congressman Ron Paul, Champion of Liberty: 3.1
Christie: 2.8
Ryan: 1.0


Gingrich seems undervalued and Huntsman, Palin, and Cain seem overvalued to me.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2011, 12:25:12 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on May 17, 2011, 12:21:47 AM
Intaders have gone "insane for Cain".  (That should be his campaign slogan.)


He should fear that they've been raising Cain stock to unsustainable levels.  It'll have to crash eventually: this stock has the mark of Cain on it.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2011, 02:06:02 AM »
Huntsman is way overpriced. 
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The Mikado
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2011, 04:40:08 AM »
Quote from: Dvorak Standard Keyboard on May 22, 2011, 02:11:21 AM
Maybe, but it would be the first time it has ever happened.  Losing VP candidates, especially those tied to loser Prez candidates, just don't go anywhere in the end.

FDR?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2011, 06:59:34 PM »
So Obama was priced higher in May 2007 than Romney is now?  I'd say that Romney's in a better position than Obama was four years ago at this point (though, obviously, Obama ended up working out).
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The Mikado
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2011, 09:12:47 PM »
Quote from: GLPman on May 23, 2011, 07:41:30 PM
It's hilarious that Christie is above Gingrich. Poor Newt.

Did you notice this?

Gingrich in 2012: 2.8
Gingrich in 2008: 2.7

He's slightly higher than the year he wasn't running.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2011, 06:21:29 PM »
Protip: sell the f**k out of Huntsman.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2011, 05:40:59 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on June 25, 2011, 02:42:21 AM
Huntsman back up to 3rd place, and Gingrich has a dead cat bounce.

Up: Perry, Gingrich
Down: Pawlenty

GOP nominee

Romney 36.1
Perry 17.0
Huntsman 9.4
Bachmann 9.1
Pawlenty 8.5
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.0
Gingrich 2.0
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.8
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.4


I still say that Huntsman is priced too high.

Also, everyone from Ron Paul down should be at 0, not at 2.x or 1.x.  Why would you even bother betting on a Newt Gingrich or a (chuckle) Giuliani?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2011, 01:22:16 PM »
When you have a "contest" that entails, what, 2k-3k people, every vote seriously matters and it doesn't take that many to produce some screwy results.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2011, 06:54:30 PM »
Bubble.

You know, Romney is like a blue chip in this "market."  He might not be that impressive, you might not get a great return, but he's solid, reliable, and won't flare out.  Romney is the "conservative" investment.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2011, 09:21:32 AM »
« Edited: July 30, 2011, 09:23:04 AM by The Mikado »
Quote from: Darth Yelnoc on July 30, 2011, 09:17:57 AM
Also, whoever is still holding onto Clinton is a fool.

Hint: it's people that don't expect Obama to be alive a year from now.


EDIT: Also, Bachmann is a bargain at those prices.  Buy buy buy.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2011, 03:40:11 PM »
Buy Bachmann.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2011, 01:27:36 PM »
Jon Huntsman fans must really hate money.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2011, 11:05:41 AM »
You know, just a week ago I was saying Perry was overpriced.  Now he's underpriced.  Damn.  As much as I hate to say it, buy Perry.

Romney is the candidate with the best chance of winning, but his chance is considerably less than 45% IMO.

Also, Jon Huntsman is overpriced at any price above .5%.  4% is just outrageous.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2011, 09:21:40 PM »
Romney over 57%?  Everyone knows I'm bullish on Romney, but that's a bit too high.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2011, 05:04:06 PM »
Huntsman is still overpriced.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2011, 11:25:37 PM »
Quote from: Beet on November 07, 2011, 11:20:42 PM
I've asked this before and I'll ask it again. Has any American here actually used Intrade, made money, and repatriated it?

Didn't someone upthread say he made $60 off of it?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #19 on: November 15, 2011, 11:09:11 AM »
Quote from: jmfcst on November 15, 2011, 11:05:17 AM
Quote from: Conley on November 15, 2011, 10:59:36 AM
A late comer cannot still win it because the important filing deadlines have passed.

has the deadline for super tuesday passed?

New Hampshire, South Carolina, and one other...I want to say Nevada? have had their filing deadlines.  I don't think anyone else has.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2011, 07:14:57 PM »
Huntsman is higher for the Primary than he is for NH?
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The Mikado
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« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2011, 12:18:49 PM »

He is a centimillionaire.  I don't think there's a rule saying candidates can't bet on themselves.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #22 on: December 14, 2011, 07:38:02 PM »
Quote from: Politico on December 14, 2011, 04:48:44 PM
You guys haven't seen the Gingrich doodles yet? There is no way he is going to be the nominee. Clearly he is mentally ill.

Mentally ill?  He's the leader (possibly) of civilizing forces!
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The Mikado
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« Reply #23 on: December 15, 2011, 12:07:35 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on December 14, 2011, 07:51:56 PM
Quote from: Yelnoc on December 14, 2011, 07:07:19 PM
What were the 2007 numbers 3 weeks out from Iowa?

Four years ago at this time:

Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 12, 2007, 08:08:33 PM
Democrats
Clinton 60.1
Obama 34.0
Edwards 4.5
Gore 2.8
Biden 0.3
Richardson 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 41.1
Romney 19.5
Huckabee 17.8
McCain 9.2
Paul 6.0
Thomspon 5.0
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.4


The GOP side of that shows how far ahead Atlas is over Intrade.  By December 2007, we had spotted the McCain resurrection and, IIRC, were all talking about the race as a tricorned contest between Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.  Intrade hung on with Giuliani and his absurd Florida strategy far longer.
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