ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[The Mikado]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

[The Mikado]

There has been very little head-to-head polling of Collins vs. Gideon (and the few recent ones we've had show a close race), so I would hesitate to call this Lean D yet. It should also be noted that in the past much of Collins' disapproval in past polling came from conservative Republicans who would ultimately vote for her.

With that said, the trajectory of the race is clearly not favorable to Collins and it should be much more competitive than some here were initially expecting.

Well put. I would note that many have Margeret Chase Smith as a comparison to Collins; but they forget that even she, legendary as she was, was toppled by a liberal Democrat in 1972. So they really didn't think the comparison fully through.

There was that joke about Olympia Snowe being like a corrupted, lossy copy of Margaret Chase Smith and Susan Collins being like a corrupted, lossy copy of Olympia Snowe, like putting the same paper through a copy machine a bunch of times.

[The Mikado]

The fact this article makes a big deal about "Collins' quiet political comeback", while only sourcing an *internal* R poll that has her up +1 is... a joke to put it lightly

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272366620212703239

Conducted late April.

[The Mikado]

Tilt R now that RGB died. This really opens up a clear opportunity for her to redeem herself. Maybe I'm just being too overreactive to the events of the day though

Uhhh

how?

If she votes yes on any Trump SC replacement for RBG, she will be dead on arrival. However, if she is the deciding nay or even abstain, which I think is very possible, she will gain the title of "moderate hero" back.

Gideon can still and very likely will attack Collins that if she loses, she'd still vote for Trump's appointment in a lame duck period. Why would she care if she's out of office anyways after Kavanaugh and impeachment. Only a vote for Gideon would be a safe vote against a Trump appointment.

If the vote happens before the election and Collins votes "no", that will make such attack ads look silly to most of the general public.

A. The Senate vote will 100% not be until the lame duck.
B. If Collins votes no it kills her turnout among Republican voters, who may well skip the Senate race out of spite.