Huh, I just realized that if the Democrats can take Arizona and Florida, they can technically get to 271, but it's a very risky strategy since it relies on holding every state Clinton narrowly carried, like NH, NV, MN and ME. Next up is NC, but the D trend of that state is over. In the end, this thought experiment just reinforces the indispensability of the rust belt. I'm convinced a lot of the pessimism from Democrats for 2020 is the instinctive fear that the candidates being touted today lack rust belt appeal.
I don't think that the GOP keeps Michigan no matter what. It went to Trump by a stupidly narrow margin (0.2%!) and did so in an environment where 6% of Michiganders felt safe voting third party, which certainly won't be the case in the next election. I think that the GOP has a good shot at maintaining WI and PA (although both of those are no worse than Tossup and may be Lean D), but not MI.
If MI flips back to Dems, then Florida alone wins the election. AZ alone could push the GOP down to 279 (278 if they also lose ME-02), which puts Dems in striking distance if there's a breakthrough in NC.
As to the topic question, Maricopa probably only runs 1-2 points more GOP than AZ as a whole. It'd need to be a
razor-thin Dem win for the Dems to win the state without it.
