Russia/China/others balkanize by 2030: then what's the US role in world?

[The Mikado]

Your maps are insane. Maybe Russia has a future where it withdraws from the Caucasus, but the rest? No.

China's even more insane. A world where a rump Tibet and a rump Xinjiang (in Xinjiang's case, only stuff west of the Taklamakan at most) break off is one thing, but Manchuria? There aren't even any Manchus left to want to secede. Inner Mongolia leaving is almost as crazy. Your breakup map has a giant Chinese Muslim state based in Xi'an that stretches to the Kyrgyz border, which is utterly unimaginable.

Pakistan breaking up into its component parts is not only possible, but arguably likely, so you get a pass there.

I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish with Iran: Khuzestan already had a chance to try to break away in the 1980s and stayed firmly loyal to Teheran, while Azerbaijan's in no place to make a bid to reclaim Tabriz. The Baluchi provinces might make SOME sense (if a Baluchistan secedes from Pakistan, its Iranian brethren might want to join), but Iran isn't giving up its entire southern coastline for no reason.

[The Mikado]

While I can see your reasoning for these maps, only one or two have a realistic shot at happening: unified Korea and a Syria breakup. Russia and China would never breakup due to the threat, and actual use, of military force. Russia is very scared and aware of this situation ever since the Soviet breakup. China is very aware of this esp. in regard to the Uyghurs and Tibetans and has used force and has absolutely no qualms about doing so.

In absolutely NONE of the above, would a peaceful unification or balkanization take place. It would be beyond bloody in each scenario.

I think a Pakistan breakup is a real possibility. It certainly wouldn't be peaceful, though.

And yes, I don't think it's impossible that Russia loses a little territory, but if it does happen, it'll be Russia losing another three or four small states in the Caucasus and retreating a bit north on that frontier. Outside of the Caucasus, Russia isn't losing any more territory.

EDIT: I don't think anyone would really be feel it a huge blow to Russia if Russia were to eventually spin off Dagestan, Chechnya, and Ingushetia.

[The Mikado]

Not really. That will trigger calls for the overthrow of the CCP, not calls for independence.