R.I.P. social conservatism: Why it’s dying — and the coming realignment

[The Mikado]

The amount of passion about abortion, as a political issue, has very little to do with the actual abortion rate.  To pro-lifers, one abortion is enough to cause them to keep at it, and to pro-choicers, lowering the unwanted pregnancy rate has little to do with whether or not this particular method of ending unwanted pregnancy is on the table.  I don't see that issue ever fading, though it will continue to wax and wane in importance vis a vis whatever is the big issue of the day.  (I'd argue that abortion has taken a backseat ever since the 2008 economic downturn, but it'll likely pop right back up whenever times get good again)

It's only a matter of time before de jure discrimination against homosexuals disappears: even the current overwhelmingly Republican House of Representatives would easily pass ENDA if Boehner let it have a floor vote, and same sex marriage will be legal nationwide within the next five years at the current rate.  After that, gay rights issues will undoubtedly start taking a backseat as politicians wash their hands of it and say that they've dealt with the de jure obstacles and that the de facto concerns are the community's own problem (much like the government did with civil rights issues on race in the 1970s) and those issues will end up taking a backseat.

There ends up being this false equivalency drawn between gay rights and abortion: the latter's not going anywhere as an issue, the former is about to be solved decisively for the foreseeable future. 

[The Mikado]

The idea of inevitable and linear progress is a terrible myth that needs to die.

Aren't you a Marxist?  You might need to ditch the whole "capital's internal contradictions will inevitably lead to its internal collapse and revolutionary overthrow by the proletariat who will then seize control of the economic apparatus created by the bourgeois for their own benefit" aspect if so and you believe that inevitable linear progress is a myth.