Should Germany move to a FPTP system

[Middle-aged Europe]

The AfD would benefit from a change to FPTP, at least with these polling numbers. So, this isn't an argument to change for the second worst system of all (only the Singapore system is worse than FPTP).

At the very least it wouldn't make that much of a difference.

In 2021, the AfD won 16 direct seats with a 10% result nationally.

The current constituency projection on election.de from May 26 gives the AfD 35 direct seats, almost twice as much as Greens and Left combined.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The AfD would benefit from a change to FPTP, at least with these polling numbers. So, this isn't an argument to change for the second worst system of all (only the Singapore system is worse than FPTP).

At the very least it wouldn't make that much of a difference.

In 2021, the AfD won 16 direct seats with a 10% result nationally.

The current constituency projection on election.de from May 26 gives the AfD 35 direct seats, almost twice as much as Greens and Left combined.

Not neccessarily though since it depends on actual election law. Usually you would have a majority vote, ergo no candidate receiving an absolute majority (which is just a minority of districts) would trigger a runoff election between first a second place. AfD may win the first round in several Eastern presincts with 20-35% of the vote, but would almost certainly lose to a CDU or SPD opponent in the second round. I guess a large majority of CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP voters would switch the Christian or Social Democrat to prevent the AfD from winning. Even in Saxony, AfD is far away from an actual majority. We've seen this not only in mayoral elections, but state elections as well were swing voters flocked to the party of the incumbent Minister-President to make sure AfD doesn't come in first (though we might see this in the upcoming 2024 state elections).

I was referring to First-past-the-post (FPTP) as in plurality voting. You are referring to a two-round system that is usually not covered under the term "first-past-the-post" in the English language. Perhaps a bit confusing since FPTP is often translated into Mehrheitswahlrecht in German, even though the term Mehrheitswahlrecht tends to cover both FPTP and multi-round/run-off systems.