International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

COVID situation continues to be very serious in Germany.

But be it as it may, today is BLACK FRIDAY (in some stores Black Week(end)). So, let's go shopping. And indeed many seem to be doing just that.

However, facilities like museums or galleries - which operate under the same hygiene and sanitation protocols as consumer electronics retail stores - have been shut down for almost a month now, with no end in sight. That's probably supposed to make sense, even if it doesn't.

Politicians and scientists have recently pointed out that the current lockdown "light" measures seem to be much less effective than expected and hoped for. I guess that's because the constant transmission of mixed and incoherent messages leads to people not taking COVID seriously any longer, having that topic checked off as "over and done with" for themselves. After all, you can make a good bargain today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

COVID situation continues to be very serious in Germany.

But be it as it may, today is BLACK FRIDAY (in some stores Black Week(end)). So, let's go shopping. And indeed many seem to be doing just that.

However, facilities like museums or galleries - which operate under the same hygiene and sanitation protocols as consumer electronics retail stores - have been shut down for almost a month now, with no end in sight. That's probably supposed to make sense, even if it doesn't.

Politicians and scientists have recently pointed out that the current lockdown "light" measures seem to be much less effective than expected and hoped for. I guess that's because the constant transmission of mixed and incoherent messages leads to people not taking COVID seriously any longer, having that topic checked off as "over and done with" for themselves. After all, you can make a good bargain today.

There a no good options, but in my perspective it is preferable than the Austrian/UK/French approach of screwing the Economy through JoJo-ing Hard Lockdowns or attempting Herd Immunity. The Partial Lockdown hasn't brought down the Infection rate, but it is hard enough to keep the Infection rate stable and soft enough that our Country can cope economically.

Composite PMI numbers for November:



L to R: Eurozone: 45.1; UK: 47.4; France 39.9; Germany 52.0

Value above 50 indicates Economic Growth, Germany being one of few in Europe to do so. Essentially Germany can stick Culture and much of Hospitality being shut down, as long as the rest of the Economy remains operating (Manufacturing, Retail, Hairdressers etc.) and Schools stay open, not least because the first two are a smaller part of the economy than in many other European Countries. Google Mobility is also only down by about 10 percent, compared to about 40 during the first Lockdown and a much smaller decrease than in most of the rest of Europe.

If we have to for at least the next few months, as the Government has strongly indicated, we can do that - arguably it is one of the few more quasi-sustainable strategies in Europe right now. But I guess it is more of a moral Issue then about whether it is acceptable to essentially sacrifice some 300 odd people per day and a ton of jobs in culture and hospitality to keep the rest of the Country going.

I'm not working in culture, arts, tourism, or gastronomy myself, so I guess it doesn't affect me that much personally. I do have a self-employed actor (nobody you'd know by name or face, although you'd probably recognize a few of the movies/TV shows he appeared in) among my acquaintances and I don't think I really need to lay down his opinion on the "Lockdown light" here. Because his opinion is exactly what you would assume it is, given the cirumstances. Herein lays perhaps a bit of danger, that is the political radicalization of certain segments of society. The first lockdown in spring had been "brutal, but fair". Everybody was shut down back then. Now some parts of society keep on going, while others were singled out and selected for lockdown. That means a lot of people who feel themselves treated unfairly, and the AfD is already working hard in getting the votes of the pissed offs.

That being said, the current situation may still be preferable to the one in spring, all things considered. I think what I was rather getting at is: Keeping all the department stores open is one thing, but in the context of the phenomena described above it seems like a dumbass decision to conduct a "Black Friday" this year. Because that event I would have considered redundant, at the very least.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After Berlin had been Germany's main COVID hotspot for the past couple of weeks, the regions most affected by the Coronavirus have now shifted to the southern parts of former East Germany.  Oddly enough, these areas had previously been among the least affected in past months.

Saxony has surpassed Berlin as the state with the most new infections per 100,000 inhabitants, particularly in Saxony's more rural counties. The county with most new infections Germany-wide is Hildburghausen in neighbouring Thuringia. The imposition of stricter anti-Corona measures sparked a wave of public protests in Hildburghausen that made national news.

Theorizing has begun to explain this new phenomenon, including the assumption that these counties are major AfD strongholds and the AfD is the German party most critical of any COVID measures and restrictions. So just like Trumpists in the U.S. they don't wear masks und don't abide by hygiene and sanitation protocols.

The more harmless explanation is that since these areas hadn't been much affected by the pandemic so far, the population also hadn't considered Corona much of a danger based on their prior experience. Therefore fewer mask-wearing and less compliance with hygiene and sanitation protocols.

Other explanations include: The virus spread to these counties from the neighbouring Czech Republic which had been severly affected by COVID recently. Also, these counties have for the most part a rapidly aging population and therefore are more susceptible to an outbreak.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Through the liberal use of extensive micro-managing German politicians have made it possible that nobody really has any clue anymore what kind of social gatherings are allowed around here... in particular people who don't follow the news that closely, judging from my personal experience.





In the neighbouring states of Berlin and Brandenburg, five people from two households are allowed to gather from 12/1 to 12/22.

In Berlin, five people irrespective of the number of households are allowed to gather from 12/23 to 1/1. In the surrounding Brandenburg, it's ten people irrespective of the number of households in the period from 12/23 to 12/27. In both these cases, children until age of 14 are exempted from and not included in that upper limit of five/ten people.

From 12/28 to 01/01, five people from two households are allowed to gather again in Brandenburg, while in the same period the rule of five people irrespective of the number of households is retained for Berlin.

Got it?

It would probably be impossible the put the existing rules for all 16 states into a single chart. And of course, over the holidays we will have people travelling all over the country from one state to another...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Markus Söder becomes the first to put his state into Hard Lockdown. Stay-at-Home order for all of Bavaria like in March, Curfew for Hotspots, de facto border closure (although he tried avoiding the word), switch to partial online learning for many schools. It seems however that due to Pressure from his coalition partner (whose leader is the Economy Minister and has clashed with Söder before on this) unlike in Austria non-essential retail stays open for the christmas season, and people can leave home for all shopping, which kind of undermines the Idea of a Stay-at-Home order.

Pushing ahead like this is very reminiscent of March, an approach that won him a huge popularity, both in Bavaria and outside, and effectively forcing the rest of Germany to follow with more stringent measures. Of course you don't have to be hugely cynical to figure that his ambitions for the Chancellery next year might have played a role going ahead like this.

This time Söder was beaten to it by Saxony though, at least with regards to stay-at-home orders and curfews.

Also, it isn't a hard lockdown if retail stores remain open for Christmas shopping. I'd call that a fake lockdown.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thirteen days after the minister-presidents of the German states had agreed to allow social gatherings of people from more than two households over Christmas and New Year's Eve a push has begun to at least partially revoke that agreement again next week.

Who cares I wonder... last Saturday I happened to talk to someone who didn't know what the currently existing Corona restrictions look like and when I told her she asked me to define what exactly a "household" is with regards to these restrictions. That wasn't a particularly dumb person, because she also reads George Orwell and is in the process of learning the Chinese language, but at the same time she apparently considers the Corona regulations as way too abstract and also too far removed from her normal course of life. I consider that a somewhat representative anecdote. Only Corona nerds know the Corona rules.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mhm, if what I experience at my own work and what have I heard almost simultaneously from acquaintances in other jobs is any indication it seems like German employers have started to stretch the rules a bit in deliberately providing their employees with "legal" opportunities to experience social contacts in person. This includes in fact the loosening and scaling back of "work from home" practices or holding some form of Christmas parties in person which are officially declared "conference meetings".

Probably conveys some general mood that is going around... corona fatigue and the attempt to sit this one out somehow for a few weeks until the expected mass vaccinations start. Hell, the whole idea of the "lockdown light" could essentially be considered the politicians' version of that. But is also shows that every further restriction will probably be undermined somehow, making them less effective than they were this spring when compliance was still higher.

[Middle-aged Europe]

While the so called "lockdown light" somewhat slowed the growth in new cases, it was largely a failure. The numbers are not close where they should be. Furthermore, they made a huge mistake by closing restaurants, which were not drivers of the pandemic.

The "lockdown light" perhaps could have been successful hadn't it been largely inconsistant and incoherent.

But, among other nonsensical things, we had the "Black Friday" and "sunday sales" during this "lockdown light".

To be frank, I lost faith in the politicians' abulity to effictively manage that crisis.

Some asshole politicns like Markus Söder (CSU) like blame the average citizen - or other states like Berlin, despite the fact that Bavaria has by now worse infection rates than the aforementioned state - for the lockdown light's failures.

[Middle-aged Europe]

MACORONA! The French president has COVID.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/17/947449920/french-president-macron-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany has joined the Netherlands in discontinuing air traffic with the UK.

South Africa will be likely added tomorrow.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nevertheless it can't hurt to be careful.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EMA (European Medicines Agency) has finally approved the Pfizer vaccine.

Interesting this applies to all EU members. But makes sense.

That's why it probably also took so long (longer than US/UK/Canada/Switzerland anyway). But the delay probably doesn't matter considering "vaccine shortages" has become a hot topic in Germany recently.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The EMA (European Medicines Agency) has finally approved the Pfizer vaccine.

Interesting this applies to all EU members. But makes sense.

That's why it probably also took so long (longer than US/UK/Canada/Switzerland anyway). But the delay probably doesn't matter considering "vaccine shortages" has become a hot topic in Germany recently.

Hmm.. didn't knew that Germany had "vaccine sortages" issues too. Here in Portugal, that's also a hot topic with many doubting that the Covid-19 vaccine plan will work well.

In the city of Berlin, only one of the six planned vaccination centers will become operational for now due to the lack of enough dosages. Federal government has recently reordered a couple of million additional dosages to close the gap.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Saxony continues to be Germany's no. 1 plague state, followed by the other Eastern states, except Mecklenburg-Vorpommern which still has the lowest infection rate of all 16 German states. M-V's low numbers align well with Germany's other northern, non-eastern states though.

1. Saxony (average of 486 daily new infections in the past seven days)
2. Thuringia (321)
3. Brandenburg (288)
4. Saxony-Anhalt (250)
5. Berlin (234)
6. Bavaria (223)
...
15. Schleswig-Holstein (105)
16. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (98)

[Middle-aged Europe]

All EU countries have received doses of vaccines today and will start vaccinating tomorrow.

Except for Hungary, which broke the agreement and already started vaccinating today ...

https://orf.at/stories/3195080/

The county of Harz in Saxony-Anhalt also decided to start with the vaccinations a day early. Germany's first vaccinated person on Saturday was a 101-year-old resident of a retirement home in the city of Halberstadt.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In Germany, various politicians from CSU, SPD, FDP, and the Left have criticized the low number of available vaccine dosages. It is estimated that until late March only about five million Germans could be vaccinated at current production rates. This led to calls to significantly ramp up vaccine production, specifically that other pharmaceutical companies with unused capacities should be allowed to produce the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine too, for example through licensing agreements.

Radical suggestion from me: Either we have a national emergency right now or we don't. If we don't, then we can immediately lift all lockdown measures. If we do, then Article 14 Subsection 3 of the German consitution allows for nationalizations if they're in the interest of the public good. Nationalize BioNTech and then distribute the vaccine patents among all pharmaceutical companies.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As expected, Germany has extended the lockdown to February 14. Schools will also remain closed and the government is looking for decrees to extend working at home wherever possible. Cases recently dropped, but still 11,000 news cases yesterday.

The proposed nightly curfews have been shelved though due to resistance from (mostly) SPD minister-presidents. Considering the federal system that was a somewhat unsurprising development, I might add. Merkel aside, nationally mandated curfews were supported by minister-presidents of states who had already them in place for weeks. They were opposed by minister-presidents of states who don't have curfews so far. In the end this stalemate was resolved by just leaving everything as it is.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some problematic polling numbers in Germany.





How much are the coronavirus restrictions straining you? (compared with December)
Very strongly 18% (+6)
Strongly 31% (+7)
Less strongly 42% (-3)
Not at all 9% (-10)





Same numbers broken down for age groups.

18-to-39-year-olds: 59% "very strongly/strongly"
40-to-64-year-olds: 49% "very strongly/strongly"
older than 65: 37% "very strongly/strongly"





How satisfactory is the coronavirus crisis management of federal and state governments?

Very satisfactory 5% (-5)
Satisfactory 41% (-6)
Less satisfactory 33% (+3)
Not at all satisfactory 21% (+9)





Satisfaction broken down for party supporters.

CDU/CSU: 74% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
Greens: 52% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
SPD: 52% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
Left: 42% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
FDP: 20% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
AfD: 7% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
No party: 42% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"



So, older CDU voters are truly the only happy demographic group right now...?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some problematic polling numbers in Germany.





...

it's available by est/west or by land?

Not really, but given the numbers for the AfD voters I'd strongly suspect that opposition to Corona restrictions is higher in the Eastern states. I mean, higher opposition to restrictions was already one of the explanations discussed why they became the current infection hotspots.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Infection rate has started to go down this week in Germany. Therefore we have started the same game we're always playing: The first politicians have gone on the record saying that we must start to phase out the lockdown in mid-February, while others urge caution. Just like last April this will probably dominate the debate from this point forward.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Things have the potential to get very ugly on the Vaccine front soon, I fear. There is a lot of anger in Europe at Pfizer and AstraZeneca, as both companies have now said that they are not going to be able to deliver as many doses to the EU as originally agreed. So far so bad, but what riling distrust particularly, is the fact that AstraZeneca at least is both refusing to give a proper reason (only blaming vague "problems in the European supply chain") and only cutting commitments to the EU - other Countries, in particular the UK, are not affected for some reason. Making things worse is simmering anger/distrust over Brexit. The EU will now introduce a advance registration requirement for all exports to third countries, and some member states, such as the German Health Minister and many in the EU parliament are for calling for restricting or banning the exports of Vaccines entirely.

Clearly it is unacceptable for AstraZeneca to not keep it's commitments to the EU but to other countries without a proper reason, and if they cannot, they should be held legally accountable considering how much the EU invested in them for research and production capacity. But doing things like this is extremely irresponsible in my view. Mixing politics and vaccines is never a good idea, but especially not like this. If Europe would block the export of Biontech/Pfizer from it's European plants, other Countries would (such as the UK with AstraZeneca) respond entirely tit-for-tat, and crucial supply chains for the Vaccine distribution everywhere would be disrupted. It is a lose-lose for everyone. And it's feels like a cheap attempt to distract for the failures of the Government in the Vaccine rollout in many European countries, especially in Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mhmm....

AstraZeneca pulls out of EU meeting about vaccine supplies

Pharmaceutical company AstraZenca has pulled out of a scheduled meeting with European Union officials to discuss vaccine supplies, an EU official says.

The company behind one of the world's top Covid vaccines is in the middle of a row with the EU over supplies of the jab.

The EU had ordered 600 million doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine ahead of expected approval for roll-out across the bloc.

But the company says it has supply issues and is trying to solve them as quickly as possible - it says the late EU decision to purchase doses left little wiggle room for supply.

The EU official says the bloc continues to ask AstraZeneca to explain why vaccine deliveries to the EU have been cut.

The EU is behind some others in the race to vaccinate populations, including Israel, the UK and the US.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-55823064

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today is the so-called "vaccination summit" of German federal and state governments. A couple of politicians have also started to ramp up their rhetoric, including Markus "Bavarian Che Guevara" Söder (CSU) who has gone on the record saying that the free market has failed in producing vaccines in adequate numbers, and that the government taking control of and directing vaccine production must be on the table as an option. Perhaps as a result of these threats, a couple of biopharmaceutical companies have started to promise to increase their vaccine deliveries.

(This was probably Markus Söder at his most Söder btw. If there's something that it is very popular/populist with the additional benefit of being very authoritarian you can be certain that Söder is always going to go for it. Not that I necessarily disagree with him in this specific case (provided that it would actually help produce more vaccine), but it also shows his general lack of convictions and principles IMO. He's switching back and forth between positions that could be at home in the AfD, Greens, Left Party, or FDP depending on which ones are most popular/populist and/or most authoritarian at any given point.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

How satisfactory is the coronavirus crisis management of federal and state governments?

Very satisfactory 5% (-5)
Satisfactory 41% (-6)
Less satisfactory 33% (+3)
Not at all satisfactory 21% (+9)





Satisfaction broken down for party supporters.

CDU/CSU: 74% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
Greens: 52% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
SPD: 52% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
Left: 42% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
FDP: 20% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
AfD: 7% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"
No party: 42% "very satisfactory/satisfactory"

FEBRUARY UPDATE:




How satisfactory is the coronavirus crisis management of federal and state governments?

Very satisfactory 4% (-1)
Satisfactory 38% (-3)
Less satisfactory 34% (+1)
Not at all satisfactory 22% (+1)






Satisfaction broken down for party supporters.

CDU/CSU: 66% "very satisfactory/satisfactory" (-8)
Greens: 58% (+6)
SPD: 47% (-5)
Left: 35% (-7)
FDP: 10% (-10)
AfD: 4% (-3)






Current Corona measures are...

Going too far 22% (+5)
Appropriate 51% (-2)
Going not far enough 24% (-6)






How big are your worries...

...that the state of the economy worsens?
Very big/Big 73%
Less big/Small 27%

...with regards to new variants of the coronavirus?

Very big/Big 56%
Less big/Small 42%






How big are your worries...

...that you or your relatives get infected with the coronavirus?

Very big/Big 44%
Less big/Small 55%

...with regards to social isolation?

Very big/Big 44%
Less big/Small 55%






How big are your worries that the Corona measures are impairing childrens' development? (unlike all the other polling numbers this isn't compared to last month but to May 2020's numbers)

Very big 44% (+21)
Big 33% (-7)
Less big 12% (-11)
Small 8% (-2)






Speed of the vaccination campaign

Too slow 68% (+16)
Appropriate 21% (-15)
Too fast 7% (-1)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Like any other vaccine, Sputnik V must be approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) first. Russia filed an application for EMA approval on January 20 this year. Now Sputnik V will have to undergo the same procedure as any other vaccine before it.

It's true that the EU didn't take any initiative on its own to acquire the Russian vaccine last year. But keep in mind that Russia's early approval of Sputnik V had drawn widespread criticism because it had been the only COVID vaccine to get approval prior to the completion of the Phase III trials. Therefore it had been unclear whether this particular vaccine was safe to adminster, at least by generally accepted WHO standards. And of course, the EU and its member states obviously didn't anticipate the current vaccine shortage on the continent, therefore eliminating the apparent need for additional or alternative vaccines.

Since then, further research into Sputnik V has taken place and by now we know that it is probably about as safe and effective as any other vaccine. I don't what's the state of debate regarding Sputnik V in Austria, but in Germany several leading politicians including the Chancellor and the health minister have already said that dosages of the Sputnik V should be acquired and administered to the population once it has been approved by the EMA.

Considering the edge the United States, the United Kingdom, or Israel have in vaccinating their own populations I agree that EMA approval procedures (as well as the EU's vaccine acquisition policies) probably need to be streamlined and made much more efficient. But that's a problem that doesn't have anything to do with Russia.