International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

The city of Göttingen in Lower Saxony is fighting a new outbreak and has reentered a partial lockdown.

Nationwide the situation still seems to be looking good though. The number of daily new infections stands at 377 right now (for comparison: it's 1,800 in the UK).

[Middle-aged Europe]

The lockdown is for all intents and purposes effectively over in Germany. But, everywhere you go now the maximum number of attendees is heavily restricted and almost always you need to make reservations beforehand: in yoga studios, exhibitions, cinemas, churches etc. This totally eliminates any spontanity. I have never been that much of a spontanous person anyway, more like a obsessive-compulsive control freak, so I'm able to handle it. But I know people where I imagine that it could be much harder. The bottom line is, we just need much bigger buildings in the post-Corona world.

[Middle-aged Europe]

COVID-19-denying Russian priest backed by Cossack fighters has seized control of Sredneuralsk convent, vows he will only be removed by force:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/russian-priest-who-called-coronavirus-a-pseudo-pandemic-seizes-convent

[Middle-aged Europe]

So far there have been 1,029 positive COVID-19 tests at the Tönnies meat company in the county of Gütersloh in NRW, making it the worst post-lockdown outbreak in Germany.

To put that into perspective: That's about the three times the number of daily new infections we had recently nationwide. So the county of Gütersloh is essentially Germany multilplied by three. Authorities are debating if this outbreak can be contained as it is or if a regional lockdown will be necessary.

The coronavirus' basic reproduction number for the entirety of Germany is still stable below 1.0.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So far there have been 1,029 positive COVID-19 tests at the Tönnies meat company in the county of Gütersloh in NRW, making it the worst post-lockdown outbreak in Germany.

To put that into perspective: That's about the three times the number of daily new infections we had recently nationwide. So the county of Gütersloh is essentially Germany multilplied by three. Authorities are debating if this outbreak can be contained as it is or if a regional lockdown will be necessary.

The coronavirus' basic reproduction number for the entirety of Germany is still stable below 1.0.

When you say regional lockdown, how do you define "region"?

NRW minister-president Laschet hasn't really defined it... probably the entire county. Don't know whether it would include any adjecant counties, I guess it depends on the spread patterns.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany is divided into 16 states, those divided into districts/counties of which there is a total of 402:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Landkreise,_Kreise_und_kreisfreie_St%C3%A4dte_in_Deutschland_2011-09-04.svg

There would be the option just to lock down Gütersloh county or the whole of North-Rhine Westphalia, depending on the situation in the wider area.

The whole of NRW (more people than in the Netherlands and Germany's fourth-, seventh-, ninth-, and tenth-largest cities) is probably too big too lock down, especially with a lockdown-reluctant MP like Laschet. Therefore "regional" lockdown most likely refers to "a region of NRW".

(Fun fact: The Landrat - the elected chief executive of a German county - for Gütersloh is the grandson of Konrad Adenauer.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

After more than 1,500 Tönnies employees had been tested positive on COVID, the government of NRW has placed the entire county of Gütersloh under lockdown now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After more than 1,500 Tönnies employees had been tested positive on COVID, the government of NRW has placed the entire county of Gütersloh under lockdown now.

A lockdown for the county of Warendorf, adjacent to Gütersloh, has also been put in place now.

Warendorf is the German county with the third-most reported new infections per capita, following Gütersloh and Göttingen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany's base reproduction number has spiked to 2.76 - a similar level as in March.

Nevertheless, the Robert Koch Institute says not to worry because the recent spike is a result of highly localized mass outbreaks in Gütersloh, Göttingen, and Berlin-Neukölln which are being contained and is therefore not associated with a nationwide rise in infection numbers.

[Middle-aged Europe]

We need to shut down all meat factories until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

About half a kilometer from there I live in Berlin-Friedrichshain there is now also an quarantined housing block with 44 confirmed infections. Yesterday I even went to a nearby hardware store there. Ain't that swell...

(https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/bezirksamt-bestaetigt-corona-ausbruch-in-friedrichshain-li.89255)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany's base reproduction number has spiked to 2.76 - a similar level as in March.

Nevertheless, the Robert Koch Institute says not to worry because the recent spike is a result of highly localized mass outbreaks in Gütersloh, Göttingen, and Berlin-Neukölln which are being contained and is therefore not associated with a nationwide rise in infection numbers.

Leading virologist Christian Drosten now says there might be a "totally worse situation" a month or two from now if we don't act carefully. My general sense is that a lot of people are getting more lax lately since they're tired of this whole stuff. The media and some politicians also made the impression it would be over after Easter, then after summer vacation, which won't be the case.

I'm seeing more and more people on public transportation who don't wear masks since maybe about a week. Today I was on a bus with 50% non-mask wearers. A totally impossible sight a month ago.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Effective tomorrow, the city of Berlin does the big Corona shuffle.

All remaining "contact restrictions" are lifted, meaning I could theoretically invite thirty people over to my appartment again for a huge party. (In practice - and this is probably also what the state government is gambling on - this is unlikely to happen because with the weather conditions we have right now most people are meeting outside somewhere in a park).

In return, not wearing a mask in public transportation or stores means that you can get fined with 50 to 500 Euros starting tomorrow. It has also been announced that the state police is planning to start conducting controls to that effect.

Qurantine on some virus-affected housing blocks in Berlin-Neukölln has also been lifted.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After a light flare-up, things seem to normalize again in Germany.

Gütersloh is currently the only German county surpassing the "50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within the last seven days" threshold at which a regional lockdown is recommended. Situation there is still bad enough to warrant an extension to the lockdown, although the numbers have been improving a little bit. The 2nd place after Gütersloh is occupied by neighbouring Warendorf, although they're below the 50 new infections threshold now.

All meat factories in North Rhine-Westphalia have been ordered to test all their employees twice a week. Clemens Tönnies, CEO of the Tönnies meat company in Gütersloh, has resigned today as chairman of the supervisory board of the Bundesliga soccer team Schalke 04 due to the scandal.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Did Sweden get it right?

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-01/coronavirus-update-covid19-australia-european-union-nick-kyrgios/12408186

The video is doom and gloom, but i actually prefer Sweden's response. The main issue they have is that their neighbours chose a different strategy and have now put them in a bubble.

There is a lot to like about their response. It offered a lot of information for researching the virus. They will come out of it sooner. Sweden did not overwhelm their hospitals. They did not disrupt their life as much.

Australia looks better but we have not had it yet, so for that reason i would prefer the Sweden model.

Sweden: 68,451 infections, 5,333 deaths

Denmark: 12,768 infections, 605 deaths

Norway: 8,887 infections, 250 deaths

Finland: 7,214 infections, 328 deaths

[Middle-aged Europe]

The daily new infections in Germany have returned to a figure below 500, as it was the case prior to the Gütersloh outbreak. Situation seems on its way back to "normal".

The main concern is that a similar "hotspot" outbreak may come in the future where the authorities don't succeed in containing it, making it the starting point for a second infection wave. Whether this concern is justified remains to be seen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Higher Administrative Court for North Rhine-Westphalia has ordered to lift the lockdown for the county of Gütersloh.

Gütersloh has by now dropped under the "50 infections per 100,000 inhabitants within the last seven days" threshold which necessitates a lockdown - although only barely.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some states in Germany, particularly in the North, are discussing to end mandatory mask wearing in supermarkets and public transportation. Others like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg are opposed. I dislike the masks as well, but I'm opposed to lift these rules now. The virus is still here and I intend to keep the numbers relatively low (about 500 new infections a day nationwide).

The discussion seems to have been shelved for now, after invention from the federal level. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which initially started that debate, has extended the mask wearing until at least August 4.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I know this is evil from me, but just imagine Trump trying to explain COVID away if Bolsonaro were to die from it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Daily infections at an average of ca. 350 in Germany and no local hotspots for the moment, making the pandemic almost a non-event around here.

You wear masks in public transportation and stores, clubs are still closed, and mass events (well except political rallies and protests) remain cancelled. That's about it. Main issue in the media seems to be whether Markus Söder will become the CDU/CSU chancellor-candidate in next year's election. And there was a debate whether to rename the Mohrenstraße ("Blackamoor Street") subway station in Berlin in the aftermath of the recent BLM protest wave.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany has lifted its travel warning for Sweden, the final EU member state which still had one.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Administrative Court of Berlin has ruled that visiting Dominatrixes should be allowed again, provided that no actual sexual intercourse occurs. Regular prostitution that includes intercourse remains banned under the anti-Coronavirus provisions.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Personal support for/compliance with mask-wearing and physical distancing in Germany, across parties:





The low numbers among FDP supporters is probably due to "libertarianism", in case of the AfD it's a general anti-establishment/anti-mainstream sentiment coupled with a affinity for conspiracy theories (the mainstream media and the government who let all those refugees in are lying to us, just as they're lying about climate change, COVID-19 was never dangerous, mandatory mask-wearing = dictatorship etc.).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Would you say AfD scores higher than average for anti-vaxxers as well?

Most likely.

Interestingly, because those two parties usually aren't intersecting at all, I had the increasing feeling in the last couple of months that this is a segment where the Greens are losing some of their support to the AfD. Historically, the Greens were affiliated with the anti-vaxxer scene, but this started to change over the last couple of years with a party leadership that is increasingly pro-vaccination. And Corona put the issue to the forefront.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A recent surge to about 800 new infections per day in Germany (average before that had been about 400) has led to Saxony's minister-president Michael Kretschmer proclaiming: "The second wave is here."

The surge is seemingly attributed to three factors:

- Returning vacationers from abroad. For instance, the Corona testing center at Frankfurt airport has so far reported 70 infections. Not all airports in Germany are testing that thoroughly so far though and a debate has now been stirred that the testing of returning vacationers must be made mandatory.

- The reopening of restaurants and specifically restaurant owners who don't abide by the Corona rules. For instance, this week we had at least 10 infections at a restaurant in central Berlin where apparently a huge (and nominally illegal) party had been thrown.

- The Trump explanation: Increased and more thorough testing in general.