🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Assuming the CDU of Thuringia is expelled, what happens to them? Does Thuringia get CDU against the CDU-Thuringen?

No idea.

Has that ever happened in Germany? (even the CSU situation is quite different)

I'm not entirely sure. The FDP during the 1950 and the Greens during the 1980s had some problems with Nazi infiltration among their ranks. In the FDP's case by actual former Nazi party members and in the case of the Greens by back-to-the-soil/Germanic-tribes-had-lived-in-harmony-with-nature Neo-Pagan Nazis. I think that I remember that in one of these cases a state chapter may have been cut lose by the mother party. But like I said, I'm not really sure. It's possibly that only the members of the state chapter's executive board were expelled from the party, but the state chapter itself remained.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Christoph Kindervater, the trojan horse-like AfD candidate in yesterday's election, has just resigned as mayor of Sundhausen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The FDP federal executive committee is planning an emergency session tomorrow. An unnamed member of the committee is quoted as saying that the purpose of the meeting is to discuss Thomas Kemmerich's possible expulsion from the FDP in case that Lindner remains unssuccessful today in urging his resignation.

Meanwhile, Left, SPD and Greens in Thuringia are considering a vote of no confidence against Kemmerich. For that to succeed they'd need four additional votes from the CDU or FDP. In yesterday's election they had apparently received two votes from these parties, so they're still two votes short.

[Middle-aged Europe]

BREAKING:

FDP in Thuringia intends to file a motion to dissolve the state parliament and call new elections. Thomas Kemmerich about to resign (statement by him in ca. twenty minutes).

[Middle-aged Europe]

How ironic.

All three candidates from yesterdays' election (Ramelow, Kemmerich, Kindervater) are now out of a job.

Well done.

[Middle-aged Europe]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

A strange assumption. Care to elaborate?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seeing writing on the wall, CDU fraction in Thuringia says will not support snap election. If CDU+AFD vote no to a snap election, then it cannot pass as it needs 2/3. Total Chaos lmao. They could engineer a Schröder-style fake no-confidence vote.

That statement was produced before the news of Kemmerich's resignation broke. In these very fast-moving times, it's unclear what their current position on the issue is now. I mean Kemmerich just said things in his press conference that were the exact opposite of his yesterday's statements.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hopefully AfD CDU FDP wins a majority

The FDP will probably fail to make it past the 5% threshold again though.

A AfD-CDU majority is a possibility. But after the chaos and debacle of the last 24 hours a government between them is less likely than ever before.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yes, although it was after Kemmerichs resignation and the FDP supporting a election was reported by the media.

The release of that statement, yes. Keep in mind though that it takes time to coordinate and agree on such a statement. So, it was most likely voted on at a point before any news on Kemmerich's resignation broke. By now it has been rendered pretty much irrelevant.

I'd say that a snap election is all but given now. The FDP minister-president wants a snap election, the federal CDU wants a snap election, Left, SPD, Greens want a snap election. Insisting on not holding a snap election doesn't make sense any longer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to some reports, Christian Lindner basically told Thomas Kemmerich: Either you go or I go. Do you want me to resign?

[Middle-aged Europe]

LOL, Christian Lindner - looking a bit f**ked up after a night which probably had not contained much sleep - just gave a press conference, essentially saying:

We never wanted to win yesterday. With the Kemmerich candidacy we only wanted to show that a non-extremist, moderate alternative theoretically exists. It's the CDU's fault that they suddenly all voted for our candidate.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hopefully AfD CDU FDP wins a majority

The FDP will probably fail to make it past the 5% threshold again though.

A AfD-CDU majority is a possibility. But after the chaos and debacle of the last 24 hours a government between them is less likely than ever before.

I have to assume that in an election there will be a consolidation of the vote toward Linke and AfD vote in which case the risk of FDP and Greens falling below 5% would be a key factor in which bloc gets a majority.

My prediction would be: CDU and FDP lose, Left and AfD gain (both at the expense of the CDU like they already did in October), SPD and Greens about the same.

Unless Left, SPD, Greens win an outright majority I would also say that a CDU-SPD-Green  minority government (assuming the FDP is gone from the parliament) with confidence and supply from the Left has also become a hell of a lot more likely now due to the events of the last 24 hours. The time of experiments and taking chances is probably over.

[Middle-aged Europe]

An INSA opinion poll conducted after Kemmerich's election, but before his resignation (in brackets the difference to the parliamentary election in October):

Left 34.0% (+3.0)
AfD 23.0% (-0.4)
CDU 19.0% (-2.8 )
FDP 7.0% (+2) - FDP actually receiving a bump due to Kemmerich's election, let's how it looks next week *lol*
SPD 6.0% (-2.2)
Greens 6.0% (+0.8 )


Anyway, the first parties have positioned themselves with regards to the FDP's intention to call for another election:

Left - Aye.
SPD - Aye.
Greens - Nay, for the moment - let's try holding another MP vote in parliament first.
AfD - We need to discuss this first.
CDU - No further response from the state party yet. The federal CDU approves.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Looking at that poll, what happens in the plausible scenario where all of SPD, Greens and FDP fall below threshold?

Interesting question.... maybe Left and CDU agree to support a non-partisan government of experts? There aren't really much options left.

[Middle-aged Europe]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

A strange assumption. Care to elaborate?

cfr your post just above.

I add that this "farce" has given a little "respectability" to AFD. It's a little like VB in Flanders: NVA negociations (3 times !) with VB has given a boost to VB in polls. Also, hysteria at the federal level should favored this (federal against the land, elites against people,...).

The thing is that there weren't really negotiations with the AfD... not officially anyway. Almost everybody involved denies the existence of negotiations, while some in the AfD basically gloated "haha, we've successfully played you!".

So, I fail to see how this lends respectability to the AfD. They nominated a candidate of their own, but not because they wanted to vote for him or because they wanted to got him elected, but as a ploy to lure the FDP into a candidacy of their own. After this was achieved they threw their own candidate under the bus and secretely voted for the FDP guy without any prior announcement. As a result, there was a 24-hour FDP minority government which relied on their five members of parliament until he the newly elected minister-president resigned and called for a snap election.

Granted, this scheme was masterfully executed but does it really lend respectiability to the AfD? Would Frank Underwood from House of Cards actually gain in popularity if all the manipulations he had ever done came to light? If anything, it looks like the AfD played games with the constitution and the state's institutions. It leaves a bit of an ugly taste...

I only wrote that that the AfD would gain (but perhaps less so than the Left) because I think CDU and FDP look even stupider. And the latter look stupider because there has been lots of open infighting among their ranks, while the AfD has been pretty unified. So, these partes will lose some votes over it which have to go somewhere now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AfD should vote for the Linke candidate to be the Minister President. Just to troll them. Then he would have to resign as well.

Maybe the AfD group could split their votes so that a few of them will vote for a candidate from each of the other parties. Then no-one can be Minister President.

The issue you're implying here wasn't really the issue at hand.

The point was that Kemmerich was elected MP and that he wouldn't have been elected without the AfD. That he recquired the AfD's votes to achieve a goal. One which he eventually achieved that way. Let's assume that the CDU would say that they'll vote Ramelow (Left) as MP well. Nobody would give a f**k how the AfD voted, because Ramelow would have been elected without the AfD anyway.

All of this is of course also completely academical since the AfD's party line is and always has been that they wanted to prevent a socialist MP in favour a conservative one. So they can't simply vote for the Left. Their entire political strategy amounts to "we're a completely normal, non-radical party of the centre-right camp and hence CDU and FDP are our natural allies". That's why they helped get Kemmerich elected in the first place, to underline that claim. They'd lose credibility if they'd simply flip-flop on that. So everybody knows they'd never vote for a Left candidate in the first place.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Honestly, the FDP is the most unlikely party to drop under 5 %, Mr Kemmerich is beloved by those who hate Mr Ramelow.

I disagree. Kemmerich looks like a failure and a joke now who has been played by the AfD and then thrown under the bus. I can't imagine anyone "loving" him. It's even unclear whether he'll run again for parliament in the upcoming snap election. And considering the Left's election results and polling numbers, hatred against Ramelow is a fringe position in Thuringia. His approval rating is high across the supporters of pretty much any party with the exception of maybe the AfD (but they tend to hate everyone).

Did you talk about that to your colleagues again? Well, my East German parents are happy that Kemmerich's is gone so quickly, including my formerly FDP-suppporting dad.

[Middle-aged Europe]

very curious to see the next polls. I bet on an afd surge.

A strange assumption. Care to elaborate?

cfr your post just above.

I add that this "farce" has given a little "respectability" to AFD. It's a little like VB in Flanders: NVA negociations (3 times !) with VB has given a boost to VB in polls. Also, hysteria at the federal level should favored this (federal against the land, elites against people,...).

The thing is that there weren't really negotiations with the AfD... not officially anyway. Almost everybody involved denies the existence of negotiations, while some in the AfD basically gloated "haha, we've successfully played you!".

So, I fail to see how this lends respectability to the AfD. They nominated a candidate of their own, but not because they wanted to vote for him or because they wanted to got him elected, but as a ploy to lure the FDP into a candidacy of their own. After this was achieved they threw their own candidate under the bus and secretely voted for the FDP guy without any prior announcement. As a result, there was a 24-hour FDP minority government which relied on their five members of parliament until he the newly elected minister-president resigned and called for a snap election.

Granted, this scheme was masterfully executed but does it really lend respectiability to the AfD? Would Frank Underwood from House of Cards actually gain in popularity if all the manipulations he had ever done came to light? If anything, it looks like the AfD played games with the constitution and the state's institutions. It leaves a bit of an ugly taste...

I only wrote that that the AfD would gain (but perhaps less so than the Left) because I think CDU and FDP look even stupider. And the latter look stupider because there has been lots of open infighting among their ranks, while the AfD has been pretty unified. So, these partes will lose some votes over it which have to go somewhere now.

it seems to me that at first, the support of afd had been "accepted" by the liberals. cfr the handshake between the afd leader and the fdp leader.

A handshake isn't that much. And like I said there's a lot ambiguity involved. Plus, the thing that will probably stick in people's memories the most is that everything was completely chaotic and crazy for a couple of days.

What I'm trying to say is that this was far from being an orderly government formation. What it looked like is that everything seemed to go totally nuts all of the sudden. And making everything go totally nuts doesn't really lend credbility to anyone.

[Middle-aged Europe]

But even if 80 % of the electorate in Thuringia consider him a laughinh stock, if only half of the rest votes for him, he would gain votes. And his campaign followed Mr. Lindner's playbook quite closely (seemingly anti-refugee or AfD-lite).

Even if he were to actually gain votes over having to resign after only 24 hours as MP this doesn't take into account the votes he previously had and may lose now. Maybe his losses over this whole affair will by far outweigh any gains? And like I said, it's far from certain that he will even run again for parliament. Today, he refused to answer that question in his press conference.



Anyway, the AfD has started to send mixed with regards to the motion to call a snap election:

State chair Stefan Möller - it tends to be unlikely that the AfD's members of parliament will support this

Federal chair Tino Chrupalla - it's a good thing that there's a snap election now

Ah, well, it seems through a vote of confidence there will be a snap election one way or the other.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mike Mohring (CDU) has just written on Twitter that he opposes a snap election (despite the fact that the CDU Presidium of which Mohring is a member of unanimously voted in favour of s snap election).

Instead he suggests an alternate course of action: The minister-president has the option to call for a vote of confidence and if the MP loses that vote the state parliament has the opportunity to elect a new minister-president.

He doesn't elaborate who he thinks should succeed Kemmerich as MP. Does he plan to give Ramelow a second chance? Does he think of himself? In the case of the latter he'd need to get a plurality without the support of the AfD otherwise he'd only be MP for 24 hours himself.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the current situation is that - similar to Christian Lindner earlier today - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer personally went down to Erfurt to meet Mike Mohring and the rest of the Thuringian CDU. For 8.30 p.m. a joint press conference of AKK and Mohring had been scheduled. 8:30 p.m. was about two hours ago. Current rumours indicate to a very heated discussion behind closed doors, AKK setting the Thuringians the ultimatum that they need to accept a snap election, and so on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just wondering what would happen if say the afd ever won a outright majority in any of the Landtag?

What would happen? Personally, I would probably start considering if and how I could get myself a gun.... either that or considering emigration.

To elaborate: AfD politicians, AfD members, AfD supporters - particularly from the far-right "Der Flügel" around Thuringian AfD leader Björn Höcke - like to more or less openly phantasize about special tribunals for enemies of the people and traitors to Germany once they've taken power in this country. As a member of the Green Party I consider that a direct threat. Particularly, that my real name has already been publicized on at least one far-right website as I've once discovered.

Fortunately, the scenario of the AfD winning an "outright majority" in a Landtag is probably pretty low since it has to be assumed that their upper ceiling in Eastern states has already been reached and it's a well-known fact that the majority of non-AfD supporters tend to have a very strong dislike against that party across the board. At least I hope so. Until yesterday I wouldn't have thought to be yesterday's events possible either.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the current situation is that - similar to Christian Lindner earlier today - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer personally went down to Erfurt to meet Mike Mohring and the rest of the Thuringian CDU. For 8.30 p.m. a joint press conference of AKK and Mohring had been scheduled. 8:30 p.m. was about two hours ago. Current rumours indicate to a very heated discussion behind closed doors, AKK setting the Thuringians the ultimatum that they need to accept a snap election, and so on.

Really hope that AKK finds the right words here. It is unbearable that her authority is challenged by a loser like Mohring and a few backbenchers from a state with less inhabitants than Munich + suburbs.

In the end, AKK had to back down yesterday. For now, the CDU opposes a snap election, alternatives should be explored first.

Mike Mohring also suggested this morning that his party wouldn't try to block Ramelow's election were he to run again in state parliament. That's probably a position that only exists until he's pressured by his state party to walk back on it.

Meanwhile, Forsa has released a Thuringia state election poll, conducted yesterday:

Left 37.0% (+6.0)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 12% (-9.7)
SPD 9% (+0.8 )
Greens 7% (+1.8 )
FDP 4% (-0.5%)
Other parties 7% (+1.5)

Majority for Red-Red-Green.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The regional Thüringer Allgemeine newspaper reports, that the Thuringian CDU has appointed a commission which is supposed to start talks with Left, SPD, Greens and FDP with the goal of exploring another Ramelow run where the CDU would now abstain.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AKK has just announced that the CDU expects from SPD and Greens to make a proposition for a candidate for the office of minister-president who is capable of winning a majority in the state parliament of Thuringia. A candidate who wouldn't be Bodo Ramelow.

She also specifically stressed in her press conference that this is a unanimous decision of the CDU presidium and that Mike Mohring is a member of that presidium (probably because the leading bodies of the federal and Thuringian CDU tend to make unanimous decision which contradict each other despite the fact that Mohring is a member of both).