🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any recent poll?

Infratest dimap (January 28, 2020) - in comparison with the election result from October:

Left 32% (+1)
AfD 24% (+0.6)
CDU 19% (-2.7)
SPD 8% (-0.2)
Greens 6% (+0.8 )
FDP 6% (+1)

So, nothing will get solved and in fact things will only get worse?

Anyways, given the negative majority Thuringia now has to choose between 3 "unthinkable and unholy" options: CDU-AfD cooperation, CDU-Linke cooperation or FDP-Linke cooperation. The math literally does now allow for any other options.

Though maybe this move hurts FDP and makes them drop below the threshold, meaning a majority Linke-SPD-Greens government can be formed.

In his first adress to parliament, Kemmerich has just invited CDU, SPD and Greens to join the government.

Annalena Baerbock, federal chairwomen of the Greens, has called for Kemmerich's immediate resignation.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Michael Kretschmer (CDU), minister-president of neighbouring Saxony:

"This is not a good day for Thuringia. The CDU in Thuringia didn't accept that she lost the election and that there can't be any cooperation with the AfD."

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ulf Poschardt, editor-in-chief of the conservative Die Welt newspaper (Axel Springer):

"Someone who lets himself gettting elected minister-president by a repulsive right-wing extremist like Björn Höcke brings disgrace over liberalism."


Paul Ronzheimer, deputy editor-in-chief of the BILD tabloid newspaper (also Axel Springer):

"A FDP man who lets himself getting electing minister-president by fascists makes himself guilty. The party of Höcke is made socially acceptable. What a disgrace."


I'm getting the feeling that Kemmerich could be gone very soon.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I mean deputy leader Kubicki just called his election a "huge victory", so its unlikely.

Kubicki made the congratulatory remarks earlier today before the whole sh**tstorm avalanche started though, so it may have been a bit premature just like Dorothee Bär's already deleted congratulations.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FDP federal chairman Christian Lindner has urged CDU, SPD, Greens to accept Kemmerich's offer to form a government, adding "the FDP doesn't negotiate with the AfD, there's no basis for a cooperation, I can't be the federal chairman of a party which cooperates with the AfD".

Paul Ziemiak, secretary-general of the federal CDU, and Markus Söder, chairman of the CSU, have both called for a snap election in Thuringia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak: "Politically, the FDP has played with fire and has set Thuringia and our entire country on fire today."

Seems like the CDU has decided to throw the FDP under the bus. They're the scapegoat now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1225077710956957697

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU federal chairwomen Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer:

"The Thuringian CDU has acted against the expressed recommendations, demands, and pleas of the federal party."

She also joined the calls that a snap election in Thuringia may the best way out of this.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The FDP Bundestag Caucus' deputy leader (and former Vice President of the European Parliament) Alexander Graf Lambsdorff has just tweeted that Thomas Kemmerich should resign immediately.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And Joachim Stamp, state chair of the FDP in Northrine-Westphalia, has also called for Kemmerich's resignation.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Next CDU-FDP-AfD cooperation candidate is Saxony-Anhalt, where Greens and CDU despise each other, and several district level CDU barons are calling for a CDU minority government supported by AfD and FDP.

After what happened today, there won't be any 'next' - the backlash we see right now is way too massive and AKK, Söder, and Ziemiak made it clear that any sort of (informal) cooperation with the AfD is not acceptable. And other than Mohring, Haseloff will do what they tell him.

As I have already observed at previous occassions, there's a significant and increasing split between the West German/federal CDU and the East German CDU (and apparently between their respective FDP counterparts) on the issue, so before a CDU-AfD coalition is actually forged in the Eastern states  the Eastern state chapters of the CDU may have to secede from the federal CDU and form sort of a East German CSU as a new and separate party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Could have been a great option for FDP to do a "Busch Thor", who gained quickly after the last Swedish election (although later derailed by another abortion controversy) by being the first mainstream party, who stopped calling all voters for the right-wing party for nazis and racists and opening for cooperation with them.

Bolded part: They also didn't do that before today's events.

However, FDP obviously also has a big share of MPs and elites members who are left-leaning on migration, so it was probably impossible for Lindner to make this move without too many internal problems, even though it seems a big possibility.

Bolded part: This isn't even the issue here.

A couple of pages back I quoted the deputy editor-in-chief of the BILD and the editor-in-chief of the Die Welt newspapers and both men showed themselves appalled by today's election of Kemmerich. Both newspapers can hardly be described as "left-wing" on immigration, I would even call BILD the most right-wing and most anti-immigration major newspaper in existence in Germany today.

This is rather about Björn Höcke being the leader of the Thuringian AfD and Björn Höcke disapproving of the existence of a Holocaust Memorial in Berlin among many, many other controversial statements.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I am currently working in Eastern Germany, and talked with some colleagues. They totally approve of the actions of Mr. Kemmerich. "Die LINKE" is seen as party of yesterday, and not nearly as "hip" as in Western German Cities.

Do you happen to work in Thuringia? Because the Left became strongest party in last October's election there. It's true though that the Left is considered to be in decline in Eastern states other than Thuringia. (And strictly speaking, if the Left weren't so strong in Thuringia, today's events would never have happened in the first place because there now would be CDU-SPD-FDP or CDU-SPD-Green majority government.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Presidium of the federal CDU has just unanimously voted to support a snap election in Thuringia. Which is interesting because Thuringian state chairman Mike Mohring is also a member of the Presidium on the federal level. Which is interesting because an unnamed spokesman of the Thuringian CDU was quoted earlier tonight as saying that his state chapter is rejecting calls from the federal level to support a snap election.

Which raises the question: Did Mike Mohring not participate in the aforementioned Presidium vote or did he just vote against the CDU state chapter he himself is the chairman of?


In other news, the FDP state chairwoman of Hamburg, Katja Suding, has just issued a statement that Kemmerich should have never assumed the office of MP and that a snap election should be held in Thuringia.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I am currently working in Eastern Germany, and talked with some colleagues. They totally approve of the actions of Mr. Kemmerich. "Die LINKE" is seen as party of yesterday, and not nearly as "hip" as in Western German Cities.

Do you happen to work in Thuringia? Because the Left became strongest party in last October's election there. It's true though that the Left is considered to be in decline in Eastern states other than Thuringia. (And strictly speaking, if the Left weren't so strong in Thuringia, today's events would never have happened in the first place because there now would be CDU-SPD-FDP or CDU-SPD-Green majority government.)

No, but the way people think is completely different from the typical Westerner like me, who is quite open for possible positive cultural things from abroad.
The Left in Thuringia immensely profited from Bodo Ramelow, a typical Westerner open to other cultural input. The other Left parties in other states are in decline due to A) Overaging and B) the AfD fitting better the cultural mood (socially conservative, economically left-leaning).

My predictions for a snap election are only valid for the assumption that Mr. Ramelow does it again. Else, the AfD may eclipse both CDU and LINKE. Note that the CDU was perceived until recently in the East as "Workers Party" because they fit better the cultural tribalism (as they existed in the DDR and primal profiteur from turncoats). Thanks to "Mutti's" "Wir schaffen das" they have lost this benefit.

The Left in Thuringia has also managed to over the role the SPD is filling in states like Brandeburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and it's unclear whether this would simply switch back as soon Ramelow is gone (I assume Ramelow is still the Left's lead candidate in case of a snap election). Maybe this could and would be solidified as a Thuringian Sonderweg.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No, but the way people think is completely different from the typical Westerner like me, who is quite open for possible positive cultural things from abroad.

This is quite easy: As Eastern German, you have learned to suppress your real opinion masterly. Mohring will of course 100 % be for a snap election - as long as he is within 100 m of AKK.

Btw, I would also caution against overgeneralizations of East Germans. I was born in East Germany, my parents still live there, both voted for the Greens in last year's European Parliament elections (my father probably for the first time in at least 25 years - previously supported the FDP in 2017), and if anything the AfD's rise caused them to actually become more accepting of immigrants, since they felt that the AfD had gone way too far and that pushed them in the opposite direction. They were also shocked about today's events in Thuringia.

Then again, they do live in urban Halle (Saale) where the Greens came in second after the CDU in the 2019 European election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A defiant Thomas Kemmerich has rejected calls for a snap election in Thuringia. Considering that SPD and Greens have rejected his offer to join the government, and he rejects "any cooperation" with the AfD, and his own federal chairman said there needs to be a snap election if SPD and Greens don't join the government, it's not entirely clear what his mid-term perspective is here. Together, CDU and FDP hold 29% of all seats in state parliament and as soon as a motion of confidence comes around he could be gone.

Kemmerich also postponed the appointment of ministers which means for the time being he's governing without a cabinet. That Kemmerich is personally fullfilling all government functions himself for the time being is farcical. Or do the Left-SPD-Green ministers simply continue in an acting capacity now? If so, will they resign? Does that mean that a bunch of state secretaries are de facto acting ministers now?

I'm confused as to what the consitution says on the matter. I think the current situation that a minister-president from a party with only five parliamentary seats is "accidentally" elected without any prior official government formation agreements is pretty much unprecedented in our nation's history.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is very ironic that all the discussion is on the FDP and Kemmerich when to me the real story is the vote of the much larger CDU bloc voting for Kemmerich.  If the CDU was so concerned about Kemmerich winning with a AFD backed plurality vote, all they needed to do was abstain and let Ramelow be reelected.

Correct. The CDU's goal was to get rid of Ramelow and now that they got what they wanted, they throw Kemmerich under the bus. They are as much to blame as the FDP.

Question why is working it’s the left party not seen as bad as working with the right?

The short answer is that Nazi Germany is considered to be worse than the German Democratic Republic.

A more present-day explanation would be that since its formation in 2013 the AfD has been constantly moving to the right (and losing two previous chairpersons over it - it has become a bit of a habit that they topple their party chairs for being seen as to moderate and those previous chairs eventually leave the party altogether), while the PDS/Left has been constantly moving away from the far-left since 1990.

And in Thuringia this is particularly the case with Björn Höcke who is seen as the most right-wing state chairmen of all AfD state chairmen and Bodo Ramelow is seen as one of the most moderate figures within the Left Party. A frequent reason given for rejecting the new minister-president today was indeed "Höcke!".

[Middle-aged Europe]

There seems to be only one historical (well, sort of, certainly less controversial) precedent for today's events:

In 1976, incumbent Lower Saxon minister-president Alfred Kubel (SPD) retired and was supposed to be replaced by state finance minister Helmut Kasimier (SPD). Normally this would have been a routine event, but since the governing SPD/FDP election held only a slim one-seat majority in state parliament CDU backbencher Ernst Albrecht (used to be a deputy leader of the state parliament's CDU caucus until one or two years prior) was running against Kasimier and got surprisingly elected minister-president in a close vote due to apparent, but anonymous defectors from the government's camp.

Albrecht then continued with a CDU minority government (since SPD and FDP technically still held the majority) until the next year when he formally got the FDP on board.

(Trivia: Ernst Albrecht was also incumbent European Commission president's Ursula von der Leyen's father.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kemmerich is going to have a slimmer majority than Franz von Papen. Congrats!

Satirical shows on TV and satirical websites are certainly going to live from today's events and it repercussions for the next couple of months alone.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Federal government has just cancelled the "Regional Conference Sustainability Strategy 2020" which was supposed to take place tomorrow in the Thuringian state capital of Erfurt with the minister-president hosting.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just saw an interview with Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer on ZDF:

"Thomas Kemmerich should resign, the Thuringian CDU should have abstained instead of voting for Kemmerich, I had personally asked (FDP federal chair) Christian Linder to convince his Thuringian state chapter to not run a candidate of their own but apparently he was unable to do so, we've been duped by our state chapters..."

AKK and Lindner should both just resign, since they're apparently useless and impotent.

[Middle-aged Europe]

To me, it has become apparent that a head-on confrontation between the federal CDU and the Thuringian CDU may become inevitable at one point. Right now, we have the situation that the CDU's federal executive board decides one thing and the next thing that happens is that the Thuringian CDU does the exact opposite. For instance, AKK already lost a lot of credibility when she stumbled through that interview she gave ZDF today. The federal CDU is trying to avoid and postpone this confrontation as long as possible but this could come to an end eventually. The expulsion of the Thuringian state chapter has been mentioned more than once today, so it may ar least come tonthe federal CDU formally issueing that as a threat and an ultimatum. And it will then up to the Thuringians to decide which path they want to go. (Behind all of this also stands the issue that the federal CDU wants to form a coalition with the Greens next year.)

It's a bit different with the FDP. They were all over the place today, with some (well, Kubicki at least) congratulating Kemmerich on his election and others outright demanding Kemmerich's immediate resignation. Lindner attempted to steer through this by taking some kind middle ground, producing a lot of hogwash in the process and looking impotent as a dog whose balls had just been clipped. In any case, the FDP came to the brink of civil war today with a desparate Lindner attempting to maintain peace... question is for how long and could it cost him the chairmanship in the end?

[Middle-aged Europe]

So is there going to be another election? how is the state government ran for now?

Thomas Kemmerich is the minister-president and he has a couple of Left/SPD/Green state secretaries from the previous adminstration running the ministries in an acting capacity. The actual ministers ceased to be members of the cabinet with Kemmerich's election yesterday.

FDP chairman Christian Lindner is in the Thuringian state capital of Erfurt right now. Lindner's goal is to personally urge Kemmerich to step down.

[Middle-aged Europe]

  If the AFD in Thuringia was led by someone other than Hocke, without his political baggage, would there be as much of a controversy, or would cooperation with any state AFD party, regardless of where in Germany, be a political outrage.?

It's safe to assume that there would be always some degree of backlash. Given that Höcke is in charge of the Thuringian AfD this is certainly the worst case scenario though. Which of course makes Kemmerich and Mohring look even more moronic.

Had they gotten away with it had the AfD leader been a moderate like Georg Pazderski in Berlin? Maybe, maybe not. Then again, the point may be moot anyway, since Pazderski could actually be too "respectable" to pull a stunt like propping up a trojan horse candidate first and then suddenly discontinue that support so that the AfD can orchestrate a stealth-vote for a FDP candidate without any prior announcements to the public.