German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I´ve modified the first post in this topic and tried to fill it with the most important informations on this election (mostly links). Just go to page 1.

If there´s something missing just say so.

[Middle-aged Europe]

An rather odd rumour has come up now... allegedly, the SPD thinks about the possibility of cancelling the early election. The reason are the dropping personal sympathy numbers for Schröder. Instead, Schröder would resign and be replaced by SPD chair Franz Müntefering, who would then lead the party in the regular election next year.

At present, all of this should be considered as nothing more than a rumour.


News from the PDS/WASG: Apparently, the chances for an electoral alliance/merger have increased a bit. The main obstacle seems to be the name for the new alliance/party. The letters "PDS" have a good reputation in the eastern states, but a bad rep in the west. So, the PDS wants their old name to be a part of the new name (for example, something like "Democratic Left - PDS", according to some of the rumours), while the WASG wants a complete new name without the "PDS" in it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No, but EU membership of Turkey will do.

Yes, in the way that the CDU has recently announced that they´ll have to accept the EU´s decision to begin talks with Turkey about a membership of the country.

At least this was the only time Turkey was mentioned in the campaign so far.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was bored, so I made up a list of the likelihood of some events...




Likelihood of parties being elected to the Bundestag

SPD: very high

CDU/CSU: very high

Greens: high

FDP: very high

PDS (running alone): medium

WASG (running alone): very low

PDS/WASG (running together): high

NPD: very low

Other parties: extremely low


You want to know why the Greens´ chances are only "high" , while the FDP´s are "very high"...? Well, assuming that PDS and WASG will run together in some form it will get pretty crowded on the left end of the political spectrum. Plus, people are expecting SPD and Greens to lose. So, it´s just a wild guess. I hope Lewis doesn´t kill me for that one. But in the case that their are signs that the FDP will f**ck it up again like they did in 2002 I´ll lower their chances to "high" too.




Likelihood of governments/coalitions


CDU/CSU alone: medium

CDU/CSU + FDP: very high

CDU/CSU + SPD: medium

CDU/CSU + Greens: very low


SPD alone: very low

SPD + Greens: low

SPD + FDP: very low

SPD + PDS: very low

SPD + Greens + FDP: very low

SPD + Greens + PDS: low

SPD + CDU/CSU (SPD as senior partner in a grand coalition): very low




Likelihood of candidates becoming Chancellor:

Gerhard Schröder: low

Angela Merkel: very high




Likelihood of Germany being hit by an asteroid untll election day: medium




That´s a pretty subjective list and personally I´m unsure about two or three of these predicitions. So feel free to debate.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Apparently, PDS and WASG came to an agreement over the issue of an electoral alliance.

The WASG won´t run, instead WASG candidates will run on the PDS´s list, with the PDS renaming itself before the election. As possible names were mentioned Demokratische Linke-PDS (Democratic Left-PDS) or Vereinigte Linke-PDS (United Left-PDS). PDS and WASG plan to formally merge within the next two years. In addition, former SPD chair Oskar Lafontaine again confirmed his intention to run for PDS/WASG in this election.

It seems Schröder will have to face a two-front-war in the next months...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sounds Atlasian.

My thought exactly. Atlasia should sue the PDS for stealing the name.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Unfortunately the Spanish commies have had it for longer...

Not only the Spanish:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Left

[Middle-aged Europe]

... 9% of FDP voters () ...

Those hideous communist libertarians...


Frankly, I see the PDS/WASG in about the same range like the Greens or FDP, perhaps something between 5% and 10%, at best. But who knows what will happen the next months...

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is at least as much bad news for Merkel as it is for Schroeder.

Not necessarily for Merkel, but for Westerwelle and the FDP.

With the Leftist combo party surpassing the 5% treshold, what are the chances that CDU/CSU+FDP won't get an absolute majority?

Well, it´s a possibility. Can´t say how likely this it. At the moment CDU/CSU and FDP seem so strong that even with the PDS/WASG in the Bundestag they would get a majority. IF it happens though, we´ll almost certainly see a grand coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD)... it´s always the last option when everything else fails.



But it also seems that not everyone in the WASG is very happy with the deal their leadership made with the PDS. At least there was some opposition to the electoral alliance in the few last days.

There´s also still disagreement between PDS and WASG over the name. The PDS leadership announced yesterday they´ll rename their party into "Democratic Left - PDS". The problem is that the WASG has always insisted on dropping the letters "PDS". We will have to see which of the two parties backs down.

The WASG leadership will meet today to discuss these problems and we´ll probably know more this evening.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The WASG leadership has just approved the outcome of the negotiations with the PDS and they will now proceed as planned. The main obstacle is still the name of the party. They oppose any name which contains the "PDS".

Personally, I would prefer "Gregor´s and Oskar´s Monster Raving Loony Party".

[Middle-aged Europe]

How detailed do you want it?
Here's an overview of relevant law (in German)

For an English description of the German electoral system just go to page 1 of this thread and click on the first link in my first posting there.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'd appreciate it if you could provide more information about the Free Democrats.

Using American terms, it´s bacially a libertarian party, but compared to the U.S. Libertarian Party a much more moderate (= pragmatic) one. I guess this happens, when you´re a governing party for several decades, instead of a highly insignificant party which recieves less than 1% of the vote most of the time.

On economic issues alone, they´re clearly the most conservative party in Germany, even more conservative than the CDU/CSU. And as I mentioned earlier in this thread, they have the reputation of being the party for the segment of the population, which is, uh, more well off.

They´re usually the smaller coalition partner for the CDU. Including NRW, there are currently five states where the FDP is part of the governing coalition.... in four of them as the partner of the CDU, in only one of them of the SPD.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What I would like to know in more detail is their foreign policy position (have they gone the way of the UKs Liberal Democrats as an anti-American party),...

On matters of foreign policy there are probably somewhere in the middle between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. For example, while the CDU/CSU was in favor of the Iraq war and the SPD totally opposed it, the FDP´s position was somewhat... neutral. Their offical stance on the invasion of Iraq was like "well, maybe it´s a good idea, but not without an additional mandate from the UN security council".

On the issue of an EU membership of Turkey they´re also taking a middle ground between the total opposition of the CDU/CSU and the total support of the SPD. I guess you could call them "centrist" on foreign policy.

...and why they seem to be perpetually locked in the 4 - 10% category.

Well... see my comment about the FDP being "the party for the well off".

[Middle-aged Europe]

I did get the impression at that time (don't know to what extent its true today) that the parties were largely occupationally based (manual workers = Social Democrats, Farmer = CDU/CSU, professionals = Free Democrats).

Well, they were... to some extent this is still the case but voting behaviour became less consistent (and less predictable) in the last years. But it would be still a fair bet that only few workers are voting FDP.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So. would it be true that what used to be East Germany still hasn't been brought up to (West) German economic standards, ...

Definitely. The average unemployment rate in the east is still twice as high as in the west.

... and that this is a major factor in the voting patterns?

Well, perhaps in a way that East German voters are more likely to vote for protest parties than in the west (either PDS or far right parties).

[Middle-aged Europe]

PDS/WASG:

The WASG has given in and accepted the name "Democratic Left - PDS". However, individual state chapters of the party are allowed to strike the "PDS" and to carry only the "Democratic Left" as their name.

Now we will have to see how the base (of both parties) will react.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Maybe some of our German friends on the site can help me out with this...why doesn't the Federal Republic make it as difficult for the Communists to run as they do for the extreme right-wing parties? 

Are you referring  to the failed attempt to ban the NPD a few years ago? Well, that´s history. But it´s not harder for them run in a election than for the PDS or any other party. They even receive campaign money from the government (as every party else).

Any recent polls?

Go to my first posting on page 1 of this topic. There are two links which lead to sites where the latest poll results are summerized.

Oh. Any chance of Schroeder getting dumped by his party, ...

No, I don´t think so. What would be the alternative? Müntefering? Brilliant idea, that would reduce their chances even further.

... or does that sort of thing not happen in Germany?

Well, yes and no. It´s probably less common than in the UK (?). And Chancellors were more often dumped by their coalition partner (when they leave the coalition), than their own party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I've had a look and... eek!

LOL, yeah.

Anyone who's not Müntefering ot Schroeder?

No. All those who could be considered "rising stars" in the SPD aren´t supid enough to waste their chances in this election. They´re all waiting for Schröder to lose, so that the field is clear for 2009.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Fair enough. Could one of their cats run then?

I´m not sure how this is handled in the UK, but cats aren´t eligible here.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, I was bored again, so I tried to answer the questions of the Political Compass as if I was one of the party´s main candidates. So, let´s see how screwed the Compass really is.



Gerhard Schröder (SPD)
Economic Left/Right: -2.25
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.82

Comment: Well, that´s probably about right. Perhaps even a bit closer to 0/0? But it´s noteworthy thats this result is more liberal than Schröder´s actual position on the "International Chart" (http://www.digitalronin.f2s.com/politicalcompass/images/internationalchart.gif).



Angela Merkel (CDU)
Economic Left/Right: 1.50
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.92

Comment: Merkel is probably much farther to the right on economic issues. On social issues however, it´s true that she´s more liberal than the mainstream of her own party. I´m not sure though, if she really should be on the Libertarian side of the axis. +0.92 would be closer.



Joschka Fischer (Greens)
Economic Left/Right: -3.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.90

Comment: About right. But I should try to take the test as the Fischer of the year 1980 or even 1970. This would be real fun



Guido Westerwelle (FDP)
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.87

Comment: I assume he´s much more rightist/libertarian than that, especially on economic issues.



Gregor Gysi (PDS)
Economic Left/Right: -8.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.38

Comment: Perhaps a bit too far left? In comparison with Lafontaine Gysi sometimes appears to me like moderate these days.



Oskar Lafontaine (WASG)
Economic Left/Right: -8.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.38

Comment: About right.



Udo Voigt (NPD)
Economic Left/Right: -7.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.69

Comment: Wtf? Considering the usual anti-big business/anti-globalization/anti-American/anti-Semitic rethoric of the party, the economic score is about right. But the 3.69 is just hilarious. It should be more something like 8.00. They should include more questions like "democracy should be abolished" etc. Part of the problem is, for example, that the NPD doesn´t care if people who have sex are married or not, as long as both are of the same race.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I've read the the government is trying to make it more difficult for such parties on the far right to run, ...

This would be totally new for me.

Actually, the CDU unsuccessfully tried to change the "three direct seats/constituencies clause" (http://www.wahlrecht.de/english/bundestag.htm) just recently, which would have made it harder for the PDS to get into the Bundestag.

This was kind of ironic, because the "three constituencies clause" was originally established by the CDU in the early 50ies with the purpose of getting their conservative allies from the "German Party" (Deutsche Partei/DP) into the Bundestag.

But I´m not aware of an effort of making it for the NPD harder to run. I don´t how something like this should be realized in practice anyway.

... or even assemble.

That´s right, there was something in relation to the new Holocaust Memorial in Berlin, I believe. Demonstrations were restricted there.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No problem.

Perhaps you´ve catched up something about the issue that NPD and DVU weren´t allowed to run with a joined list of candidates? But this is the same problem PDS and WASG were facing, therefore the whole trouble with the question if, how and under what name they´ll run.


Speaking about names... the PDS had a change of mind... again. After having changed the proposed name from "Democratic Left - PDS" to "Democratic Left.PDS" first, they´re now favoring the probably simplest name possible: "Die Linkspartei." ("The Left Party."? "The Leftist Party."? "The Left-wing Party."?).

And I wonder what´s the point of those dots at middle/end of the name. Is this supposed to look trendy? Perhaps the Republicans should officially rename themselves "The Republican Party.GOP", for example.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So is this all because of the economy? I was hearing about how the new numbers are misleading and the economy's not really as bad as they imply, but based on these poll numbers it looks like the CDU is reaping what you would expect with numbers actually like this.

CDU/CSU was originally defeated in 1998 because of the bad shape of the economy, they lost in 2002 despite the bad shape of the economy, and they´ll now win back the majority in the Bundestag again because of the bad shape of the economy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to a projection I´ve found on election.de the new Bundestag would look like this (if the election were held today):

CDU/CSU: 291 (+43)
SPD: 166 (-85)
PDS/WASG: 56 (+54)
Greens: 49 (-6)
FDP: 43 (-4)

In brackets are the changes to the last election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

PDS/WASG: 56 (+54)

Bloody hell

LOL


This happens when a party rises from 4% (last election) to 9% (current polls).


Of course you have to keep several things in mind:

1) Currently there´s a certain "PDS hype" because of the alliance between PDS and WASG and because both Gysi and Lafontaine are running for this alliance. In fact the PDS probably had more media coverage in last MONTH than in the three years before. This hype could come to an end at some point during the campaign. Especially after Lafontaine held some, eh, "controversial" speeches in the last week.

2) The PDS has received just 4.0% in the last election. You need at least 5.0% to get seats by proportional representation. As a result the PDS has held only two seats since the last election (both direct seats after winning two constituencies in Berlin).

3) The pollsters have started to throw PDS and WASG in the same hat now. What they´re not taking into account is that potential PDS and/or WASG voters who are outright opposing the alliance between the two parties could vote for some other party (or for no party at all) in the end.