German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I tought that german pollsters were very good (the best of the world!). Not really the case...

According to the last polls taken before the election the CDU should have gotten 42% of the vote. On the other hand, some polls indicated that about one fifth to one third of the voters were still undecided during the final days of the campaign.

It's a clear defeat for Schroeder and especially for Merkel.

Yeah, it's a defeat for both major parties and a success for all of the minor players (although the FDP took benefit from some tactical CDU voters). I wonder whether CDU/CSU or SPD will ever manage to win more than 40% in the future.

Combined vote for SPD and CDU/CSU in 2002: 77.0%
Combined vote for SPD and CDU/CSU in 2005: 69.5%

Combined vote for Greens, FDP, and PDS in 2002: 20.0%
Combined vote for Greens, FDP, and Left Party in 2005: 26.6%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Best/worst constituency results (taken from election.de)


Best first vote results

CDU/CSU: Ernst Hinsken, Straubing/Bavaria (68.0%)

SPD: Johannes Pflug, Duisburg II/North Rhine-Westphalia (61.6%)

Greens: Hans-Christian Ströbele, Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg/Berlin (43.2%)

Left.PDS: Gesine Lötzsch, Berlin-Lichtenberg/Berlin (42.9%)

FDP: Heinz-Peter Haustein, Freiberg-Mittlerer Erzgebirgskreis/Saxony (13.1%)

All of them have actually won the seat, except for the FDP guy.


Best second vote results

CDU/CSU: Rottal-Inn, Bavaria (61.2%)

SPD: Aurich-Emden, Lower Saxony (56.0 %)

Left.PDS: Berlin-Lichtenberg, Berlin (35.6%)

Greens: Freiburg, Baden-Württemberg (22.8%)

FDP: Main-Taunus, Hesse (16.4%)


Worst second vote results

SPD: Ostallgäu, Bavaria (19.0%)

CDU/CSU: Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Berlin (11.1%)

FDP: Berlin-Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Berlin (4.6%)

Greens: Annaberg-Aue-Schwarzenberg, Saxony (2.6%)

Left.PDS: Cloppenburg-Vechta, Lower Saxony (2.2%)

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's seems both SPD and CDU/CSU are prefering a coalition with FDP and Greens now (the so-called "traffic light coalition", Red-Yellow-Green, and the so-called "Jamaica coalition", Black-Yellow-Green).

The problem: The FDP doesn't want a coalition with SPD and Greens and the Greens don't want a coalition with CDU/CSU and FDP.

So, a grand coalition still seems possible, if not likely.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Which coalition would you guys like to see?

Hahahaha, I dunno. I'm satisfied as long as we will have a government of some kind next month. But seriously, I will be pleased with any coalition as long as either the SPD or the Greens will be part of it... and the Left Party being not part of it. And that's probably what we'll get.

My personal favorite would perhaps be the "traffic light", but currently only a grand coalition and a "Jamaican coalition" would have a majority in both chambers, in the Bundestag as well as in the Bundesrat. And a grand coalition would mean a super-strong government and a very weak opposition.... not so good, I think.

Well, I will lean back, enjoy the show and see what comes out in the end.

[Middle-aged Europe]

First vote map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamebtw05e.html

Second vote map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamebtw05z.html

Maps require Java. The strength of the individual parties per constituency can be seen by clicking on the field in the upper right corner.

[Middle-aged Europe]

First of all, What the hell is wrong with East Germany?! High vote totals for the atrocious Left Party (everything I don't like about the left, rolled up into one) and the best margins for the equally vile NPD (no comments necessary). Ugh! Ugh! Ugh! Berlin sucks majorly!

Loooong story. And I don't have the three or four hours necessary to explain it right now in full length... the whole deep-rooted cultural differences between West and East Germans and the strategy of the PDS (now Left Party) of positioning itself as the "only" party which represents the interests of the East Germans towards the "arrogant" West Germans etc.

Well, to put it the other way...

CDU/CSU: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the FDP.

FDP: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the CDU/CSU.

SPD: Ruled out a coalition with no party, except for the Left.PDS. However, all coalitions other than with the Greens (CDU/CSU, FDP, and even Left Party) remain controversial within the party, with supporters and opponents for each option.

Greens: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the SPD.

Left Party: Ruled out a coalition with really any party, no exceptions.

I take it this is all still accurate, or has the lower-than-expected vote totals for the CDU/CSU scrambled this?

Well, let me see, the current situation is the following...

CDU/CSU: Are ready to enter coalitions with the SPD (under the condition that Merkel becomes Chancellor) or FDP and Greens (the so-called "Jamaican coalition").

SPD: Are ready to enter coalitions with the CDU/CSU (under the condition that Schröder remains Chancellor) or FDP and Greens (the so-called "Traffic light coalition").

FDP: Are apparently ready to enter a coalition with CDU/CSU and Greens, depending on the circumstances.

Greens: Well, don't know what they're up to... maybe "Traffic light" too.

Left Party: Is still ruling out any sort of cooperation with any other party.

Why the CSU scrap with the Greens as opposed to the CDU?
But I agree with you.

The CSU is even more conservative on some issues than the CDU, especially social issues and immigration etc.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, here's my take on what scenarios are possible.

1) The CDU accepts Gerhard Schröder as Chancellor in a grand coalition.

2) The SPD accepts Angela Merkel as Chancellor in a grand coalition.

3) Both Merkel and Schröder step aside and CDU/CSU and SPD compromise on the Chancellor question... one of the CDU minister-presidents (state PM's) would most likely end up being Chancellor.

4) CDU/CSU and SPD agree on the "Israeli option": Schröder and Merkel will each be Chancellor for the half of a term.

5) CDU/FDP and Greens overcome their programmatic and ideological differences and agree on a coalition.

6) The FDP backs down from its earlier statements and agrees on a coalition with SPD and Greens.

7) Schröder is somehow elected Chancellor and forms a SPD/Green minority government, perhaps supported by the Left Party.

8 ) Merkel is somehow elected Chancellor (perhaps in the thrid ballot with relative majority) and forms a CDU/FDP minority government.

9) Either Schröder or Merkel are elected Chancellor in the third ballot with relative majority, but President Köhler refuses to appoint him/her and calls for early elections again.


I think options 2) and 3) are most likely at the moment. If neither of those two come true, I would place my bets on 6), 7), 8 ), or 9).

[Middle-aged Europe]

BTW, if John Kerry was President now, would CDU/CSU + FDP have won a clear majority?

Counterquestion: What has John Kerry to do with the flat tax?


America/Bush/Iraq didn't play nearly as much a role as it did in 2002 (or as it perhaps was perceived abroad), despite some few remarks by Schröder. This election was very much decided by the issue of "social justice"... and the question whether Merkel is more incompetent than Schröder or not (considering the election result the latter question was answered by a "no difference").

With John Kerry in the White House the result wouldn't have been much different, because this time we had other issues than scary countries with funny names in the Middle East.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I had a lookaround for the NPD. They topped 5% in 8 constituencies, all in Saxony:
Sächsische Schweiz - Weißeritz 7.1%
Kamenz - Hoyerswerda - Großenhain 6.5%
Bautzen - Weißwasser 6.3%
Annaberg - Aue-Schwarzenberg 6.3%
Freiberg - Mittleres Erzgebirge 6.1%
Görlitz - Löbau-Zittau - Niesky 6.0%
Döbeln - Mittweida - Meißen II 5.8%
Delitzsch - Torgau-Oschatz - Riesa 5.2%

Sounds like the usual suspects.

They did worst in the major cities - Leipzig II 2.2%, Potsdam etc 1.8%, Rostock 2.0%, Magdeburg and Halle 1.7% each.

YEEESSSSS!

[Middle-aged Europe]

1.) How soon can new elections be held?

Theoretically speaking... the new Bundestag has to constitute itself within 30 days. If the Bundestag fails to elect a Chancellor on the first ballot, the second (and third) ballot has to be held within fourteen days. Is a Chancellor elected on the third ballot with relative majority the president may appoint him/her or call for early elections within the following seven days. Early elections are to be held within 60 days of the dissolution of the Bundestag. So I'd, the next election could be held in the next three or four months... perhaps in January.

But I still think (hope) that it doesn't come so far. Perhaps it's time for the two major parties to dispose their respective chancellor candidates now... at least on the side of the SPD is this badly needed in order to get a government together.

2.) What changes will occur in such an election?

At this moment, that's totally unpredictable.. at least for me. A CDU/FDP majority, a SPD/Green majority, or the same result all over again (perhaps with better numbers for the Left.PDS, because people will start to be really disaffected by mainstream politics), who knows?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yesterday, the first talks between SPD and Greens were held. These were mostly of symbolic nature, because both parties would need the FDP to govern and the FDP refused to even talk to the SPD. Today, the CDU/CSU will come together with the FDP and then with the SPD. For tomorrow, a meeting between the leaderships of CDU/CSU and the Greens is scheduled.

In related news, there were rumours that the SPD is planning to change the rules of the Bundestag, so that two parties (read: CDU and CSU) wouldn't be allowed anymore to form a caucus. By separating CDU and CSU, the SPD would become the largest party in the house and had the right to keep the office of Chancellor in the case of the grand coalition. Those plans were now denied by SPD chairman Franz Müntefering. I'd say there were in fact discussed within the party, but it is unclear whether it was for real or just a bluff to put some pressure on the CSD/CSU. To change those rules, the SPD would have needed the votes of the Left Party anyway, and the Left has already said that they wouldn't take part in this sort of thing... which would have been kind of ironic when the CDU/CSU is actually saved by the Left.PDS.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Or is it just a coincidence that the party that actually came forward with strong reform proposals(FDP) got one of their best results in the late years?

The success of the FDP can be mostly explained by the fact that a lot of CDU supporters voted for the FDP to ensure that CDU/FDP will have a majority (didn't work that much).

Compared to the CDU with their whole Kirchhof tax concept chaos, the FDP probably also looked much more organized. In addition, their new no-nonsense style (compared to their totally stupid and utterly failed "fun campaign" of 2002) could have get them some voters.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, the preliminary talks between the parties are over for this week.

The leaders of the CDU/CSU and and the Greens seemed rather, uh, skeptical after their meeting today. And further talks between the two parties are not scheduled at the moment. Now, the "Jamaica coalition" looks at best as a backup plan of the CDU for the case that the negotiations about a grand coalition will fail.

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed to resume their talks next wednesday. The main obstacle still seems to be question who's going to be Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder or Angela Merkel, and not so much the issues.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sigh, nothing new from Germany yet, aside from countless rumours which seem to multiply at an exponential rate here. But a Grand coalition under Angela Merkel still seems to be the most likely outcome, although it will probably take a few more weeks (months? ), before CDU/CSU and SPD come to an agreement.


And there's the Dresden I special election this sunday, which will determine whether the CDU wins/keeps/loses an additional seat. Sound rather exciting, I know.   Here's a poll about the Dresden race, released a few days ago...

First vote
Andreas Lämmel (CDU): 32%
Marlies Volkmer (SPD): 29%
Katja Kipping (Left.PDS): 18%
Peggy Bellmann (FDP): 9%
Stephan Kühn (Greens): 8%
Franz Schönhuber (NPD): 3%

Second vote
CDU: 29%
SPD: 28%
Left.PDS: 17%
FDP: 12%
Greens: 10%
Other parties: 4%

Of course, since Sept. 18 we all know how accurate polls are.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Been checking some of the German news websites, and rumour has it that Schroeder is ready to relinquish the Chancellorship should the CDU decide to forebear Merkel as Chancellor. This would leave a plethora of potential candidates, including Edmund Stoiber, Christian Wulff, Roland Koch... maybe even Wolfgang Schaeuble. No matter who's Chancellor (and my gut tells me Schaeuble), Muentefehring would be Vice Chancellor in such a scenario.

Yeah, that's one of the many rumours I mentioned.

But I would say that Merkel's position looks stronger now than just a week ago (which is more the result of a increasingly weaker Schröder, than a strong Merkel)... but who knows?

At the moment, only one thing seems relatively certain... Bavarian PM and 2002 election loser Edmund Stoiber has repeatedly stated that he will be a member of the new cabinet in the case of a Grand coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merz as Chancellor? Half of Germany would probably emigrate if that happens.

Despite his extremely conservative views on economic issues, Merz is more popular among the electorate than you might think. He has a huge personality bonus.

I can't see Koch either. How about Wulff, or would the SPD be risking the same problems in Lower Saxony?

No, Koch is a scumbag, but Wulff isn't. Wulff's only problem would be his lack of experience... he became PM of Lower Saxony just two and a half years ago, I think.

Stoiber has been suspiciously supportive of a Grand Coalition ever since election night, which tells me that he's been brokering a backroom deal ever since, maybe even beforehand. I wouldn't put it past him, given that he's a real snake.

Who knows... perhaps it has simply something to do with the fact that a Jamacia coalition with the Greens would be a real horror for the CSU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm surprised, he always struck me as rather arrogant and pompous.

Perhaps it's just sympathy for being ousted by Merkel.

Is there ever a babelfish translation that is readable?   I personally can read German so it's not a problem for me, but of course other members won't be able to. What's the URL for the article?

Mhm, I think Lewis meant this one here: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,377242,00.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Current results of the Dresden I by-election (234 of 260 precincts counted)


First vote
Andres Lämmel (CDU): 37.2%
Marlies Volkmer (SPD): 32.0%
Katja Kipping (Left.PDS): 19.3%
Peggy Bellmann (FDP): 4.8%
Stephan Kühn (Greens): 3.8%
Franz Schönhuber (NPD): 2.4%
Katarzyna Kruczkowski (BüSo): 0.6%

Second vote
SPD: 27.8%
CDU: 24.4%
Left.PDS: 19.8%
FDP: 16.9%
Greens: 7.0%
NPD: 2.6%
Other parties: 3.2%

Turnout: 70.7%


Apparently, the FDP took benefit from a huge ammount of CDU supporters who voted tactical. As a result, the CDU has won an additional overhang seat, leading to this final composition of the Bundestag: CDU/CSU 226, SPD 222, FDP 61, Left 54, Greens 51.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not that I want to look like a sex-crazed chauvini... ah, what the hell...


...this is Dresden's Left Party candidate Katja Kipping...
 


...and this is Dresden's FDP candidate Peggy Bellmann.
 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Could someone explain the dual system in Germany?

Take a look here...
http://www.wahlrecht.de/english/bundestag.htm

here...
http://www.wahlrecht.de/english/overhang.html

and here...
http://www.wahlrecht.de/english/news/001.htm

[Middle-aged Europe]

omg Old Europe... those candidates look like their 17.

No, Bellmann is 19, Kipping even 27 years old.   Of the two, Kipping was elected to the Bundestag as part of the Left Party's candidate list (second vote).

[Middle-aged Europe]

And Schröder isn't ruling out anymore that he won't remain Chancellor. He virtually said that he will leave this decision up to his party.

CDU/CSU and SPD will hold their third round of preliminary talks this wednesday. I guess they're going to open up formal negotiations about entering a Grand coalition then. And my take is that at some point during this negotiations the SPD will accept the CDU's (and perhaps even Merkel's) claim to the Chancellery. The question is what the SPD will ask for in return for this little "favour".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Uh, uh, it's not so easy than I thought. The CDU/CSU says that they won't begin with formal negotiations unless the SPD unconditionally accepts Merkel's claim to the Chancellery... NOW. The SPD refuses and wants to settle this question during the negotiations. We will see how today's talks will go and whether either side will back down. Rumours are that the coalition talks could be indefinitely suspended.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, the two and a half hours long meeting between CDU/CSU and SPD went better than expected. There seems to be not that many conflicts about the issues. Both sides agreed to meet again "soon" (whetever this means, probably this or next week) to settle the Chancellor question once and for all. Formal negotiations about a Grand coalition will most likely  start then.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Both sides agreed to meet again "soon" (whetever this means, probably this or next week) to settle the Chancellor question once and for all.

And this talk is scheduled for tomorrow.