German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

We suddenly have a gay marriage debate in Germany now too.


It basically went like this:

Pretty much every major political party except CDU/CSU and AfD (which ironically is the only party with a gay lead candidate, raising her children together with her female partner) has now gay marriage and gay adoption as a plank in their campaign platform connected with a pledge to not enter a governing coalition which doesn't legalize it.

This means every potential coalition partner of Angela Merkel (SPD, FDP, Greens) wants to have gay marriage as a pre-condition for forming a government with her after the election. Which lead to Merkel saying yesterday: "Okay, fair enough." Martin Schulz basically responded by saying: "Great, let's pass a bill right NOW." And the conservative wing of the CDU/CSU basically said: "F**k you, Merkel!"

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is typical Merkel.

She plays both the conservative wing and the liberals and boosts her own standing in the process.

Well, SPD, FDP, and Greens basically backed Merkel into a corner which caused her to throw the conservatives of her own party under the bus.

In the media, it is considered at least a tactical victory for Martin Schulz too. Angela Merkel simply considered having a coalition partner after the election to be of higher priority than continuing opposing gay marriage... which she never really cared about herself anyway. So, she decided to fold.

[Middle-aged Europe]

why did merkel voted against gay marriage? is germany so homophobic that she decided to vote against because of election, or is it just because of her homophobia?

Strategic vote to appease the majority (which is opposed to gay marriage) within her own party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

why did merkel voted against gay marriage? is germany so homophobic that she decided to vote against because of election, or is it just because of her homophobia?

This is interesting, don't you think:

A person who thinks that gay people should be allowed to have civil unions but not marriage rights, would have been...

- A radical in the 1950s
- A liberal in the 1970s
- A moderate in the 1990s
- A conservative in the 2010s
- A reactionary in the 2020s

If you had changed the centuries, you could have made exactly the same argument with "give women the active, but not the passive right to vote" though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anyhow, the rise of CDU and FDP comes at the expanse of the AfD who dwindles back into irrelevancy. Today's Emnid poll sees them at only 7% which is the lowest for the party in an Emnid poll in 19 months. The unweighted "political climate" of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen even sees them as low as 5%. 

I think several things are contributed to the AfD's downfall:

1) The whole refugee/terrorism thing has become less relevant in the public mind, up to the point that AfD leaders have made statements that they "hope" that the situation will worsen again in the future. The last time "refugees and terrorism" made headlines in Germany was when that far-right military officer was arrested who had successfully posed as a fake refugee with the intention of carrying out a false-flag terrorist attack and blame it on Muslims. The Merkel government also started to get tough on asylum-seekers, up to the point that it backfired on them (the riots at that school in Bavaria when they attempted to deport one of the students).

2) The aforementioned Whatsapp-gate in Saxony-Anhalt probably has tarnished the party's reputation even further. The leaked messages from the Whatsapp group made the AfD look like a bunch of trigger-happy morons who get themselves ready for civil war and who want to abolish the freedom of the press first thing after taking power. Plus, the expulsion procedures against Björn Höcke are still ongoing.

3) The main issue in public consciousness this past week or two was gay marriage. 70% of the German population support it, the AfD opposes it. Granted, the majority of the AfD's base happens to oppose legalization of SSM, but not by huge margins (55% of the AfD's voters said they're opposed to it). The AfD has now announced their intention to file a complaint before the Federal Constitutional Court against the new gay marriage law. So, when it comes to the issue of gay marriage, they're running their election campaign with an unpopular position here.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Generally speaking, Berlin has a Green core at its center which is directly surrounded by a ring of SPD precincts in the middle which in turn is surrounded by a half ring of CDU precincts in the outer West, and a half ring of Left precincts in the outer East. As you can see above, the AfD managed to make significant inroads in the traditional Left precincts in the outer East though.

So, the city somewhat resembles a Matryoshka doll.  Berlin is rather left-wing or more precisely "culturally alternative" in the center, and becomes increasingly conservative the further you move towards the West and increasingly "populist"(economically left-wing, socially right-wing) the further you move towards the East.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why are the Greens so strong in Baden-Württemberg? Is it just a natural result of having large, well educated, middle class populations in Freiburg and Stuttgart?

I think the Greens in Baden-Württemberg have always been a bit more conservative than the national Green Party, even before the rise of Kretschmann (it's important not to confuse cause and effect here).

Then you have the effect that some voters in Baden-Württemberg were increasingly fed-up with the CDU after their 60-year rule, especially after the short and abysmal tenure of the final CDU minister-president Stefan Mappus who by all accounts is a moron. The Baden-Württembergian Greens' relative conservativeness then helped them to become a significant opposition force and alternative to the then-ruling CDU. So in part, they managed to take the role the SPD is playing elsewhere.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Interesting new YouGov poll:

"Should (insert state) secede from Germany and become independent ?"

32% Bayern
22% Thüringen
22% Saarland

(...)

8% each for Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein & Rheinland-Pfalz

http://www.bild.de/politik/inland/bundesland/umfrage-bundeslaender-wollen-raus-aus-deutschland-52565436.bild.html

Yikes, those are actually really high numbers!

For reference around 25% of Basques or 42% of Catalans want independence. I wonder why there are no relevant "Bayern/Thuringen/Rheinland-Pfalz nationalist party" like here. They don't even need to be full on independence, just wanting more money and autonomy would be good enough

This really falls under "polling hypotheticals" so treat it with extreme caution. If any of these was  to become an actually salient question, then the numbers would change dramatically.

Eg the UK AV referendum, 60 odd % of people supported AV when it was some distant hypothetical idea, that dropped down to 30% when they actually held a referendum

^^ This.

[Middle-aged Europe]

We should just start using socialist, liberal, and conservative.  That's what's usually used if I'm not mistaken

Only if "socialist" is solely applied to Germany's Left Party. Because the SPD is social-democratic, not socialist.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel loathes AfD.

Yeah, she does, that's why I was thinking literally as an extreme

She'd sooner form a new grand coalition than team up with them.

Probably

There's not gonna be a CDU-AfD coalition after this election. It's not that it is unlikely. It is impossible.

The CDU is definitely ruling it out. Acceptable coalition partners for the CDU are: FDP, SPD, and Greens. Unacceptable coalition partners for the CDU are: AfD and the Left.

Also, one of AfD's main political demands is basically that Merkel's Chancellorship must be ended. The AfD simply wants to enter the parliament for the first time and doesn't seek participation in any kind of coalition at this point. If the AfD leadership were to seek a coalition with Angela Merkel, they'd probably be quickly removed from their positions. There's a strong faction within the AfD that argues that the AfD should only enter governing coalitions with other parties provided they are the larger party in that coalition and can fill the position of head of government accordingly.

You have to understand that the AfD is basically the German equivalent to the US Republican Party, while CDU, SPD, FDP, and Greens are together constituting the German equivalent to the US Democratic Party. The rift between the AfD and the other parties is about as deep as the rift between the two parties in the US. Assuming that the AfD will form a coalition with the CDU after the election is like assuming that Democrats and Republicans are going to run a joint presidential  ticket in 2020.

[Middle-aged Europe]

and the greens have shifted WILDLY,

Well, this is what you get when you shift from supporting tax hikes for people with 60,000 € income per year (2013) to merely supporting tax hikes for people with 100,000 € income per year (2017). It marks the basic difference between socialism and conservatism. The line between the two ideologies probably lies exactly at 80,000 €.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's clear that PC didn't really understand the greens in their previous compasses, viewing them as equivalent to he English or American equivalents, and they've had to abruptly change as someone finally informed them op that they were nimrods.

I disagree. I probably understand why the Greens have moved in the Compass, although I find the extent as to which they moved a bit too extreme.

Back in 2013, the German Greens did indeed run on a decidedly leftist platform, because in that election year the Leftist wing of the party also happened to be politically dominant one. But then the Greens' election result turned out to be disappointment and the Leftist wing was accused of having fumbled the ball with their platform. Subsequently, the "Realo" wing became dominant and currently the Green party is running on a more centrist platform. However, current polling numbers (right now at 8% on average) still do not significantly differ from the Greens' last election result (8.4%). So maybe the Realos will have to take the blame this time around, and the party possibly shifts more to the left again after this election.

That's because a simple shift to the center hasn't solved the party's root problem in any way. And the root problem - in my opinion - is that the Greens do not operate as a single, unified party, but as a de facto coalition of two distinct political parties.... the Leftist wing of the Greens which is kind of  a "SPD-crossed-with-Left-Party, but with stronger ecologial orientation", and the centrist Realo wing which is kind of a "SPD-crossed-with- the-CDU, but with stronger ecological orientation". Problem is, that divide is not only represented in the party's leadership and membership, but in my experience it can also be found in the party's electorate.

An example which maybe manages to illustrates this better is the fact that there is a not an insignificant number of potential Green voters who often seem to be expressing the opinion; "the fact that you're not ruling out a coalition with SPD+Left Party / CDU+FDP (depends on which wing of the Greens the voter in question adheres to) means that I can't vote for you any longer".

That's a structural problem that can't be really solved at the moment if you won't dissolve the party altogether. But if you split the Greens you'll have two parties which win 4% of the vote each and do not manage to make it to the parliament any longer. Maybe you're thinking now "so, why don't the Leftists join the Left Party/SPD and the Realos the CDU/SPD then?" Well, at the the end of the day the Realos still prefer to the deal with the Leftists within their party rather than with the average CDU member. The feeling's probably mutual in the side of the Green leftists with regards to the Left Party. And why is that? The Green realos don't like the social conservatives in the CDU, and the Green leftists don't like the Castro admirers/GDR apologists within the Left Party. And both wings happen to dislike the SPD because it's too pro-coal. So maintaining the status quo seems like the least bad option for everybody.

In my opinion, the Greens desperately need to strengthen their own "center" (which basically would be sort of a SPD with less coal and more ecology, I guess) instead of perpetuating their own divide. However, the rift within the party is perpetuated by the fact that the Greens always have two co-chair(wo)men. Officially, that's to guarantee gender quality. Unofficially, it has become a way to guarantee that each of the two wings have at least one chairperson of their own. In practice, this too often leads to two chairpeople who don't act as leaders of the party as a whole, but as the leader of their respective wing. Which in turn leads to a competitive dynamic between the two leaders, with members of the party pledging at least covert allegiance to one of the two.

So, as you can see, it's a complex, f**ked up situation. But I guess other political parties have their problems too.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Do you not feel that a strengthening of the Greens "centre" as you put it would effectively result in a party that struggles as voters struggle to distinguish it from the SPD?

No, not necessarily... because the SPD already is the party the Greens exchanges the most voters with back and forth. SPD and Greens can also be distinguished in the way that the SPD focuses primarily on social justice, and the Greens focus primarily on ecology.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Election.de recently gave their forecast, as of July 24, 2017, for current constituencies/riding level outcomes both in terms of first and second place finishes.

That would give CDU 214 CSU 45 SPD 35 Die Linke 4 and Greens 1.

Which Green is supposed to win the direct seat according to election.de? Ströbele is not running again, and while he won district no. 83 quite overwhelmingly, his Green Party only came third in his constituency as to the second vote. Are they referring to Özdemir in Stuttgart I?

They're referring to Canan Bayram who's currently running to succeed Ströbele in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. While it will be harder for her to win the district, it's not entirely impossible.

Bayram is currently the directly elected state parliament MP from "Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 5". She won that district in 2006, 2011, and 2016 with 28%, then 32%, and then 34% of the vote. (The first time she ran as a SPD candidate, in 2011 and 2016 she stood for the Greens there.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

They're referring to Canan Bayram who's currently running to succeed Ströbele in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. While it will be harder for her to win the district, it's not entirely impossible.

Bayram is currently the directly elected state parliament MP from "Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 5". She won that district in 2006, 2011, and 2016 with 28%, then 32%, and then 34% of the vote. (The first time she ran as a SPD candidate, in 2011 and 2016 she stood for the Greens there.)

Never heard of her. Never. Had you not written that she's a woman I would have thought she were a man.
I still think Özdemir has a better chance of winning a direct seat than that no-name.

The relevant question is how much of a no-name she is in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. People from outside her district can't vote for her and hence don't need to know her.

And I bet you never heard of Pascal Meiser and Cansel Kiziltepe either. Those are the Left and SPD candidates from that district.

In the 2016 state election, the Greens won four out of the five direct seats in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. So, you don't necessarily need to be a national celebrity to win a direct seat as a Green there.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The relevant question is how much of a no-name she is in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. People from outside her district can't vote for her and hence don't need to know her.

Touché! But how many voters know their congressmen? Many just checked the field with Ströbele's name which can be proved by a look at the second vote.

That's because in that district Greens from Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg are generally more popular than Greens from outside of Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. Because the Greens in F-K are significantly more left-wing than the national (or even state) Greens. Hence the divide between the first vote and the second vote in Bundestag elections. With the first vote you voted for a Green candidate from F-K, with the second vote you voted for Green candidates from outside of F-K.

I wouldn't expect Canan Bayram to win 40% of the vote in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. Then again, you don't need to win 40% of the vote to get directly elected there. In 2002, Ströbele only won with 31.6%.

Here are the first vote results from the 2016 state election in Ströbele's Bundestag district. The Greens won five direct seats, the SPD two, and the Left one.


Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 1
Katrin Schmidberger (Greens) 44.1%
Björn Eggert (SPD) 19.7%
Gabriele Gottwald (Left) 16.4%

Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 2
Marianne Burkert-Eulitz (Greens) 33.4%
Pascal Meiser (Left) 22.4% - Meiser is currently running against Canan Bayram for the Bundestag seat
Sven Heinemann (SPD) 17.7%

Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 3
Turgut Altug (Greens) 31.3%
Sevim Aydin (SPD) 22.5%
Jiyan Durgun (Left) 16.6%

Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 4
Steffen Zillich (Left) 28.2%
Susanne Kitschun (SPD) 20.7%
Clara Hermann (Greens) 20.5%

Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 5
Canan Bayram (Greens) 34.0%
Peggy Hochstätter (SPD) 16.1%
Damiano Valgolio (Left) 13.4%

Pankow 7 (only partially within Ströbele's district)
Clara West (SPD) 25.0%
Jasmin Giama-Gerdes (Left) 22.6%
Daniele Billig (Greens) 19.5%

Pankow 8 (only partially within Ströbele's district)
Stefan Gelbhaar (Greens) 29.8%
Severin Höhmann (SPD) 25.6%
Matthias Zarbock (Left) 20.0%

Pankow 9 (only partially within Ströbele's district)
Tino Schopf (SPD) 24.6%
Michail Nelken (Left) 23.6%
Stefanie Remlinger (Greens) 18.8%


I left CDU, FDP, and AfD candidates out here, because none of them finished better than 4th place.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Somebody really burned the bridge, huh....

[Middle-aged Europe]

And she left because she wasn't put on the state parties list for the next state election in January. What a self-absorbed bit**.

The completely weird thing about Elke Twesten is is that by looking at her Facebook profile you get almost the impression that she must have decided to switch parties and blow up the government last night while she was drunk or something.

In her last Facebook post before switching parties from July 20 she praised a (quote) "Red-Green initiative" that created an independent information center for asylums seekers, calling it "a great signal!". Facebook commentators below that post are now busy pointing that her new party, the CDU, opposed created the center in question. In her penultimate post prior to her party switch, she celebrated the legalization of same-sex marriage in Germany. In the two posts before that she shared promotional videos from her own party. On March 17 she criticized the CDU for not being progressive enough with regards to instituting a quota for female candidates in their party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

She reminds me of the Green politician Marianne Tritz (also from Lower Saxony), who became a lobbyist for the tobacco industry back in 2008. Green pPoliticians seems to be quite flexible...

[Middle-aged Europe]

I do wonder if the CDU will attack him harshly for this. After all, like he said, the race for Chancellor is pretty much done, so I'm sure the CDU would try to avoid weakening their coalition partner more than needed

According to this article, politicans from the SPD and the Greens have criticized Lindner for his statement regarding the status of Crimea.

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/christian-lindner-kritik-an-fdp-chef-lindner-fuer-russland-aeusserungen-1.3618110

I suppose the FDP chairman wouldn't receive criticism from the AfD and the Left Party for saying something like this. Question is, will the CDU start to tun in?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lower Saxony early election set for October 15.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU seems to be heading for a landslide and nobody can do anything about it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The LaRouche-ists are back in action!





"We Germans can prevent the World War!"


Hahaha, cracks me up every time I see it. I also need to take a picture of that poster from the "Party for Medical Research".... their slogan is: "CANCER? No, thanks!" *lol*

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'd like to add that these are job approval ratings, not favorability ratings.

Von der Leyen's numbers look pretty bad, considering that she was treated as Merkel's potential successor. Good prospects for de Maiziére though, except that he's as old as Merkel.

Alexander Dobrindt must have taken a serious hit due to his handling of the automobile emissions and cartel scandals. Well, he had it coming. Don't wait for him to return to Merkel's next cabinet.

Gabriel's good numbers are pretty ironic if we compare them with what they must have looked in January. He didn't became his party's Chancellor-candidate because he used to be unpopular. Yeah, yeah, I know, foreign ministers are often popular. That axiom didn't apply to Guido Westerwelle though... or does anyone know if his approvals went up after he had resigned as FDP chairman and the only position he continued to hold on to was foreign minister?

And LOL@Müller... only 52% of the voters know who he even is. But not unsurprising considering that he heads the most arcane of the ministries.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, why is Schauble so popular?

He's ensuring Germany's continued prosperity by quietly doing his job, or at least that's how I'd describe his public image. I guess he's seen as competent and the personification of political stability albeit in a boring way. At the very least he has amassed more political experience than some of these other folks combined, considering that it was almost 33 years ago that he first became a cabinet member under Helmut Kohl.