German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Forsa poll is out

CDU/CSU 34% (-1)
SPD 31% (+5)
AfD 10% (-1)
Greens 8% (+-0)
Left 8% (-1)
FDP 5% (-1)

[Middle-aged Europe]

The only people in Germany who would be Republicans in the US would be supporters of the NPD and maybe some AfD people. Everyone else would be a Democrat.

I would assume the NPD is way too leftist economically and fiscally to be a good match for the Republican Party.

However, I'd say that members of the AfD are the spot-on equivalent to the mainstream GOP we know today. Especially, since some of the economic and fiscal ideas they've discussed make look the FDP like Marxists.

The average voter of the AfD is a different matter entirely, since they've often defected from the Left Party (or SPD) and either don't know or don't care about the AfD's economic policies. They care only about the AfD being anti-establishment and anti-immigrant.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The only people in Germany who would be Republicans in the US would be supporters of the NPD and maybe some AfD people. Everyone else would be a Democrat.

I would assume the NPD is way too leftist economically and fiscally to be a good match for the Republican Party.

However, I'd say that members of the AfD are the spot-on equivalent to the mainstream GOP we know today. Especially, since some of the economic and fiscal ideas they've discussed make look the FDP like Marxists.

The average voter of the AfD is a different matter entirely, since they've often defected from the Left Party (or SPD) and either don't know or don't care about the AfD's economic policies. They care only about the AfD being anti-establishment and anti-immigrant.

Isn't it most Afd voters defected from the CDU, then with a drop off SPD. The ammount of Linkie voters which switch to Afd, is quite little, compared to those two parties.

I was a bit imprecise, actually.

First of all, the largest block of voters the AfD draws from are the people who didn't previously vote at all or who had cast their vote for one of the minor parties (not CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, or FDP).

When it comes to the major parties, different patterns have developed in West Germany and East Germany. In the East, the AfD mostly draws from the CDU and the Left Party, in the West it's the CDU and the SPD. I think we can attribute that to the differing nature of the Left in the West and East. Left voters in the West are usually more liberal when it comes to non-economic/fiscal issues (like immigration), while Left voters in the East are more conservative/populist.

Here are the top two major parties the AfD drew voters from in state elections since 2014. The AfD's election results are usually stronger in the East:

East Germany

Saxony 2014: 1. CDU, 2. FDP, 3. Left
Brandenburg 2014: 1. Left, 2. CDU
Thuringia 2014: 1. CDU, 2. Left
Saxony-Anhalt 2016: 1. CDU, 2. Left
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2016: 1. CDU, 2. Left

West Germany

Hamburg 2015: 1. CDU, 2. SPD
Bremen 2015: 1. CDU, 2. SPD/Greens (tie)
Baden-Württemberg 2016: 1. CDU, 2. SPD
Rhineland-Palatinate 2016: 1. CDU, 2. SPD

Berlin 2016: 1. CDU, 2. SPD, 3. Left/Pirates (tie)


As you can see, Brandenburg is the only state where the Left actually managed to "beat" the CDU. Otherwise they usually come second in the Eastern states.

Pirates were third in Berlin, because they had received a lot of protest votes in 2011 who apparently now moved to the AfD. This despite the fact that the two parties' platforms couldn't be further apart from each other, aside from a general anti-establishment stance. This means that these voters don't really care about issues, I guess.


Source: Post-election voter transition analyses by Infratest dimap

[Middle-aged Europe]

There is another obvious reason for Left being more common as a source for AfD votes in the East: there are not too many Left voters in the West to begin with. Except in the Saarland and the city-states they are nearly invisible in the West.

It is (the few Western exceptions notwithstanding) a socially conservative populist illiberal Eastern party.

Yes, to some extent.

The AfD still managed to capture more total votes from former Left voters than they did from former FDP or Green voters in Rhineland-Palatinate, and more total votes from former Left voters than they did from former FDP voters in Baden-Würtemberg, despite the fact that the Left is generally weaker in these states than either FDP or Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There is another obvious reason for Left being more common as a source for AfD votes in the East: there are not too many Left voters in the West to begin with. Except in the Saarland and the city-states they are nearly invisible in the West.

It is (the few Western exceptions notwithstanding) a socially conservative populist illiberal Eastern party.

It's voters are socially conservative illiberal populists. It's members and leaders not so much.

That's true for progressives like Katja Kipping. Not so much for the populist matrimony of Oskar Lafontaine and Sarah Wagenknecht.

[Middle-aged Europe]

At this pace the next Chancellor will be Schulz, unless something highly unexpected occurs. The question then becomes: who will be the SPD's coalition partner(s)?

Let's wait and see. Schulz has been Chancellor-candidate for two and a half weeks now, and the SPD has received a poll bump accordingly. The election is in seven months though. A lot can happen in that time. Today, I saw the first article on Schulz' "shady deals" when he was president of the European Parliament. And the CDU is also starting to get into attack mode against Schulz.

Also, I'm curious if anyone knows how Schulz would intend to handle President Trump. Frau Merkel has charted a middle course between confrontation and embrace, thereby helping solidify Germany's potentially new role as leader of the liberal, democratic world. How will Schulz maintain or alter that direction of German foreign policy?

In an interview last week, Martin Schulz called Donald Trump a "high-grade threat to democracy", his election campaign an "infamousness", his Muslim travel ban "unbearable", and his foreign policy "gambling with the security of the Western world". He also said Merkel shouldn't remain silent to Trump's "unacceptable actions".

[Middle-aged Europe]

I've heard a couple of Bundestag backbenchers and state-level politicians from the Greens endorse Left Party candidate Christoph Butterwege recently. So he might get slightly more votes than expected. The Greens could actually go 65-35 for Steinmeier-Butterwege or something like that.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ignoring the Schulz train for a moment, if I was a member of the Green party I would get worried right now. On 19th November they were at 12%, ever since they lose bit by bit.

Right now, the Greens are suffering from the Schulzmentum. In two polls right before the Schulz effect entered into full force (Forsa, Jan. 25 and Emnid, Jan. 28) the Greens were actually rising from 9% to 10%.

The SPD's 10% bump in the polls had to come from somewhere. It's an old rule that when the SPD goes up, the Greens go down... and vice versa. The Greens' best election result ever came in the same year (2009) the SPD had their worst post-WWII result.


This rule is applicable for six out of nine Bundestag elections were SPD and Greens competed against each other:

1983: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
1987: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
1990: Losses for both SPD and Greens (Reunification effect)
1994: Gains for both SPD and Greens (Recovery from the reunification effect)
1998: Gains for the SPD, losses for the Greens
2002: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
2005: Losses for both SPD and Greens (Red-Green Schröder coalition loses its majority)
2009: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
2013: Gains for the SPD, losses for the Greens

It's also true for all but one European Parliament election:

1984: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
1989: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
1994: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
1999: Losses for both SPD and Greens (German participation in the Kosovo War)
2004: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
2009: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
2014: Gains for the SPD, losses for the Greens


CDU/CSU and FDP have of course developed a similar symbiosis.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The federal executive committee of the AfD has voted in favour of starting procedures to expel their Thuringian state chairman Björn Höcke from the party.

Federal co-chairwoman Frauke Petry had filed this motion. Despite having won the required majority to start expulsion procedures, the "nay" votes on the executive committee were:

Petry's co-chairman Jörg Meuthen, deputy chairman Alexander Gauland, Saxon-Anhaltian state chairman André Poggenburg, and Lower Saxonian state chairman Armin-Paul Hampel.

This means the ongoing power struggle between Petry and Meuthen/Gauland enters the next phase, I guess.

The case lies now with the party's state board of arbitration in Thuringia, who will be the first to decide on the motion.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In a first reaction, the Thuringian state executive committee has denounced the decision. I suppose the AfD could lose their entire state party in Thuringia over this.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If Höcke loses and is expelled, he'll probably take his state party with him and form a new political party. I suspect that Poggenburg's Saxon-Anhaltian state party could try to follow him, since he's ideologically very close to Höcke. It then will be the question whether the bleeding stops there.

If Höcke wins and is not expelled - which could still happen - Frauke Petry's position will be severely damaged. And the political opponents of the AfD (so, about everybody) will attack them for accepting revisionsts, Hitler trivializers, and NPD sympathizers in their midst.

I for one will get the popcorn and watch this clusterf**k unfold.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Red-Red-Green with a small majority of 1 point in the new INSA poll:

Pretty static INSA poll... FDP lost 1% compared to last week, otherwise no change.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Meanwhile the younger you are the more likely you are to vote Green. The exact opposite is true for the CDU. The AfD is -strongest among people between 40 and 65.

This has always been the case though.

The archetypal Green voter is an urban woman between the ages of 18 and 30 with either an university degree or on the road to obtaining one. The archetypal AfD voter is an unemployed male without high school degree from East Germany who's between 40 and 60. The archetypal CDU voter is a male Catholic pensioner.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Meanwhile the younger you are the more likely you are to vote Green. The exact opposite is true for the CDU. The AfD is -strongest among people between 40 and 65.

This has always been the case though.

The archetypal Green voter is an urban woman between the ages of 18 and 30 with either an university degree or on the road to obtaining one. The archetypal AfD voter is an unemployed male without high school degree from East Germany who's between 40 and 60. The archetypal CDU voter is a male Catholic pensioner.

Actually the average social position of a party is almost never that low, also because at least in Germany turnout correlates with class.

And surprisingly the CDU has had more female than male support in all federal elections except 1980 and 2002. Female Catholic pensioners are the archetypal CDU voters. It's true.

It's true that the AfD is even stronger with emyployed lower class workers than with unemployed. But the unemployed come a close second and the AfD has been the strongest/largest party in that group in some recent state elections.

You're right about old, conservative women going for the CDU strongly, even though the edge they have over men isn't usually that big (1% to 2% in last years' state elections). It may be stronger in federal elections, probably due to a Merkel effect.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Worst AfD result since last August. Seems like Höcke vs. Kepetry does some damage. I'm watching AfD Facebook groups with glee at the moment. They hate Petry more then Merkel right now. It is beautiful. And quite some give in to despair as they say stuff like "You are just like all the other politicians, your position is more important for you then the German people!!!" - I enjoy that so much.

Best case scenario is that the Höcke vs. Petry fight leads to a severe split of the party before election day and the AfD ends up below 5%. One can dream.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I expected the unemployed to vote for Linkie + the poor unskilled working class, with the employed, skilled medium-paid working class, or unskilled medium-paid working class voting for AfD. In the East, at least.

How "workers" voted in the Saxony-Anhalt state election (March 2016)
AfD 35%
CDU 20%
Left 14%
SPD 10%
Greens 4%
FDP 3%

How the unemployed voted in the Saxony-Anhalt state election (March 2016)
AfD 36%
Left 16%
CDU 14%
SPD 12%
Greens 2%
FDP 2%

How "workers" voted in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (Sept. 2016)
AfD 33%
SPD 27%
CDU 14%
Left 10%
NPD 5%
Greens 3%

How the unemployed voted in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (Sept. 2016)
AfD 29%
SPD 22%
Left 15%
CDU 13%
NPD 10%
Greens 4%


How "workers" voted in the Baden-Württemberg state election (March 2016)
AfD 30%
CDU 22%
Greens 21%
SPD 13%
FDP 6%
Left 3%

How the unemployed voted in the Baden-Württemberg state election (March 2016)
AfD 32%
CDU 20%
Greens 20%
SPD 14%
Left 6%
FDP 2%

How "workers" voted in the Rhineland-Palatinate state election (March 2016)
SPD 37%
AfD 23%
CDU 22%
Greens 4%
Left 4%
FDP 3%

How the unemployed voted in the Rhineland-Palatinate state election (March 2016)
SPD 30%
AfD 25%
CDU 18%
Greens 7%
Left 6%
FDP 5%


How "workers" voted in the Berlin state election (Sept. 2016)
AfD 28%
SPD 17%
Left 16%
CDU 14%
Greens 9%
FDP 2%

How the unemployed voted in the Berlin state election (Sept. 2016)
AfD 22%
SPD 17%
Left 14%
CDU 12%
Greens 12%
FDP 3%

Source: Infratest dimap/tagesschau.de

[Middle-aged Europe]

Groups in which the AfD did best in:

2014
European Parliament: 1. Workers, 2. Self-employed and white-collar employees (tie)
Saxony: 1. Workers and Self-employed (tie)
Brandenburg: 1. Workers, 2. Self-employed
Thuringia: 1. Workers, 2. Self-employed

2015
Hamburg: 1. Workers, 2. Unemployed
Bremen: 1. Workers and Unemployed (tie)

2016
Baden-Württemberg: 1. Unemployed, 2. Workers
Rhineland-Palatinate: 1. Unemployed, 2. Workers
Saxony-Anhalt: 1. Unemployed, 2. Workers
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 1. Workers, 2. Unemployed
Berlin: 1. Workers, 2. Unemployed



Notice the shift in the electoral structure of the AfD over time. It originally started out as a party of the workers and the self-employed.

Then the self-employed started to get replaced by unemployed over time. In fact, the unemployed are well on their way to become the AfD's most important voter bloc, with workers being relegated to second place.

So in essence, the AfD is gradually shifting from being a middle class party to being a lower class party.



Groups in which the AfD did worst in:

2014
European Parliament: 1. Unemployed, 2. Pensioners
Saxony: 1. Pensioners, 2. White-collar employees
Brandenburg: 1. Pensioners, 2. white-collar employees
Thuringia: 1. Pensioners, 2. Unemployed

2015
Hamburg: 1. Self-employed, 2. White-collar emyployees and pensioners (tie)
Bremen: 1. Self-employed, 2. White-collar employees and pensioners (tie)

2016
Baden-Württemberg: 1. Pensioners, 2. Self-employed
Rhineland-Palatinate: 1. Self-employed, 2. Pensioners
Saxony-Anhalt: 1. Pensioners, 2. White-collar employees
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 1. White-collar employees, 2. Pensioners
Berlin: 1. Self-employed, 2. White-collar employees


The AfD's voter blocs seem to be largely identical in West Germany and East Germany. However, there's a small but noticable split when it comes to the self-employed. They tend to show stronger support for the AfD in the East. However, the self-employed have been relegated to third place in East Germany by now too (while they tend to be the worst or second-worst group for the AfD in the West nowadays).

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'd say "poorer" Germans normally voted SPD in the West, and Left (or NPD) in the East.

However, the AfD has made serious inroads in those groups ever since they dumped Lucke for Petry and switched from being the anti-Euro/anti-bailout party to the anti-immigration/anti-Islam party (or in essence, from being a more radical version of the FDP to a more moderate version of the NPD ).



The parties which were strongest among the self-employed in 2016 (strongest first, second-strongest second):

Baden-Württemberg: Tie between CDU and Greens
Rhineland-Palatinate: CDU/SPD
Saxony-Anhalt: CDU/AfD
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: AfD/CDU
Berlin: Greens/SPD


The parties which were strongest among white-collar employees:

Baden-Württemberg: Greens/CDU
Rhineland-Palatinate: SPD/CDU
Saxony-Anhalt: CDU/AfD
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: SPD/CDU
Berlin: SPD/Greens


The parties which were strongest among pensioners:

Baden-Württemberg: CDU/Greens
Rhineland-Palatinate: SPD/CDU
Saxony-Anhalt: CDU/Left
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: SPD/Tie between CDU and AfD
Berlin: SPD/CDU


I suppose the "cultural" split or gap among the self-employed between Western and Eastern states becomes more visible here. In the West, the self-employed vote CDU, SPD, or Greens. In the East, they vote CDU or AfD.

It's somewhat similar with regards to white-collar employees, even though the SPD is noticably stronger in this group in both East and West.

I guess you could also consider a urban vs. rural divide here, since this is how these states rank in population density:

1) Berlin (1st among the 16 German states)
2) Baden-Württemberg (6th)
3) Rhineland-Palatinate (9th)
4) Saxony-Anhalt (14th)
5) Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (16th)

With the exception of Saxony, all Eastern states rank at the bottom with regards to population density.

[Middle-aged Europe]

    Do we have any data breaking down the electorate by whether they are public employees or not?  It would be interesting to see among the white collar electorate whether the CDU does much better among non-public employees and the Greens,Linke, SPD much better among public employees.

I don't think so.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's interesting that Schulz has led the SPD to take votes from all parties...he has even taken a few points from the AfD even though he is more pro-refugee and more pro-EU than Merkel is. How does that happen?

The SPD initially lost some voters to the AfD.

The fact that the SPD lost voters to the AfD doesn't mean that all of them did it due to refugee policies. And some may have switched to the AfD due to the refugee policies and are returning now despite refugee policies. Or maybe refugee policies aren't as important as an issue anymore (which is certainly proved by polls on the issue).

Hell, the day before yesterday I've got a letter from a voter. Content: Said voter committed a hit-and-run accident, ramming a parking car while driving under the influence of alcohol. Court sentenced her to paying a fine. She thinks her sentence is unfair. Hence she announced her intention to vote AfD in the fall as a protest vote (even though, by her own admission, she doesn't agree with all of the AfD's political goals).

People do all kinds of things for all kind of reasons and most of them aren't logical at all. Voters cast their vote primarily based on emotion.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Infratest dimap (national, 03/09)

CDU/CSU 32% (+1)
SPD 31% (-1)
AfD 11% (+-0)
Greens 8% (+-0)
Left 8% (+1)
FDP 6% (+-0)

Sorry folks, Grand coalition only.


Forsa (national, 03/08)

CDU/CSU 33% (+-0)
SPD 32% (+1)
AfD 8% (-1)
Greens 8% (+-0)
Left 7% (+-0)
FDP 6% (-1)

That amounts to exactly 50% of the seats for both SPD-Greens-Left and CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP.


INSA troll poll for BLÖD-Zeitung (national, 03/07)

SPD 31.5% (-0.5)
CDU/CSU 30.5% (+-0)
AfD 11% (+-0)
Left 8.5% (+0.5)
FDP 7.5% (+0.5)
Greens 6.5% (+-0)

Sorry folks, Grand coalition only here as well.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ipsos online poll (national, 03/08)

CDU/CSU 33% (+1)
SPD 29% (-1)
AfD 11% (-1)
Left 9% (-1)
Greens 8% (+1)
FDP 6% (+1)

Sorry folks, again Grand coalition only.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Infratest dimap approval ratings

Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU): 65% (+3)
Angela Merkel (CDU): 60% (+5)
Thomas de Maiziere (CDU): 54% (+4)
Martin Schulz (SPD): 52% (-3)
Cem Özdemir (Green): 50% (+1)

Mhmmm..... Schulz honeymoon starting to be over??




Also, AfD voters are ridiculously uniform in their opposition against pretty much everything:

The government's disapproval rating
CDU/CSU voters 31%
Greens 50%
SPD 55%
FDP 57%
Left 70%
AfD 98%

Don't allow Turkish politicians to campaign in Germany
Green voters 53%
Left 68%
SPD 75%
FDP 76%
CDU/CSU 84%
AfD 96%

The government should confront Turkey more determined
Green voters 67%
Left 68%
FDP 69%
SPD 75%
CDU/CSU 77%
AfD 98%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen national poll (03/10)

CDU/CSU 34% (+-0)
SPD 32% (+2)
AfD 9% (-1)
Left 8% (+1)
Greens 7% (-2)
FDP 5% (-1)

Sorry folks, Grand coalition only.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Emnid national poll from today

CDU/CSU 33% (+-0)
SPD 33% (+1)
AfD 8% (-2)
Left 8% (+-0)
Greens 7% (+-0)
FDP 6% (+-0)

Majority for CDU/CSU-SPD and SPD-Left-Greens.