Four years from today, who will be.....?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I think BILD reported a couple of weeks ago that Merkel plans to step down sometime around the middle of her next term. This was quickly denied by her. Afterwards, everbody was going like "oh crap, now we're stuck with her forever... thanks BILD! "

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thomas de Maizière

Damaged goods due to the ongoing Euro Hawk scandal. Right now, he's struggling to remain defense minister.

...chancellor of Germany? Peer Steinbruck?

Steinbrück just had to fire his spokesman and is busy denying rumours (which are probably true) that his own party chairman thinks of him as a loser. Mitt Romney had a better chance of winning at this point in 2012 than Steinbrück has now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In all likelihood, Merkel prefers Ursula von der Leyen as her successor.

Then again, she'd already tried to hand von der Leyen the presidency of Germany in 2010 and this was vetoed by the CDU state bosses who wanted a more conventional "CDU-esque" choice (and look how well that turned out ). So it all depends on how much grip Merkel will have over her own party when she retires.

I suppose David McAllister still seems like a strong option provided that he'll enter Merkel's cabinet after the election. So far he plans to run for the European parliament in 2014 though which is more of dead end.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I thought McAllister was the CDU Crownprince?

Only if he wants it to be... and frankly, so far he doesn't seem to have made up his mind.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No, Angela Merkel won't be Chancellor four years from now. It's an open secret that she intends to retire by 2017 at the latest and is already setting up Urusla von der Leyen as her hand-picked successor.

She's already working on an exit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There sure is a lot of Hannelore Kraft hype going on here. The thing is, she probably won't even be the SPD's chancellor-candidate. Sigmar Gabriel is the most likely bet. Gabriel probably won't form a coalition with the Left though (neither it is assured that Kraft would for that matter) and the SPD surely won't become stronger than CDU/CSU in parliament.

So, the best the SPD can hope for is becoming junior partner in a Grand coalition again. Although a CDU/Green coalition is certainly also a strong possibility for 2017. Probably not with Merkel though. Scuttblebutt is that she wants out and even had to deny past reports that she plans to retire prior to the 2017 election.

Appointing Ursula van der Leyen as defense minister was also widely interpreted as an attempt to build up a successor, even though von der Leyen has come under criticism for a mediocre performance as head of the defense ministry lately. So vdL is not the shoo-in anymore she was once considered. Thomas de Maizière is another possibility. He's widely regarded as competent, but he's also boring as hell (inoffensive, uncharismatic, centrist technocrat ).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is there anyone within the CDU openly campaigning to succeed Merkel, ...

Not really. Mostly because Merkel will decide when she retires and she will have a lot to say on who is going to succeed her, pending approval by the CDU's executive committee. Ursula von der Leyen is basically the heir apparent, but in order to keep that position she'll have to do a good job as defense minister (so far, her performance is seen as a mixed bag though). Thomas de Maizière is considered next in line after VdL, but he seems to lack the ambition to actively pursue the office of the Chancellor, so he's more of a backup if nobody else steps in or if the person who steps in is vetoed by one the party's wings.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sigmar Gabriel. LOL.

[Middle-aged Europe]

*bump*

No, Angela Merkel won't be Chancellor four years from now. It's an open secret that she intends to retire by 2017 at the latest and is already setting up Urusla von der Leyen as her hand-picked successor.

She's already working on an exit.

Well, it's four years later, and looks like this was wrong.  Merkel's still in.

Four years ago, some folks in this thread were correctly predicting Merkel and Trudeau.  Only one poster was predicting Turnbull in Australia.  Unsurprisingly, no one guessed Trump, May, or Macron.

Yeah, Merkel's intention to resign by 2017 probably had been true at one point. What basically happened was that Ursula von der Leyen - who was originally given the Defense ministry in an effort to groom her as Merkel's successor - ended up being a less-than-stellar defense minister in practice. And when you're as long in office as Merkel you're starting to get convinced that only you (and maybe someone who's handpicked by you) is capable of running the country in any competent fashion.

Von der Leyen turned out to be dud, so that meant that Merkel either had to run for another term or risk turning the party and the country over to someone who's not loyal to her, like Jens Spahn. She decided to do the former and eventually appointed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as her new heir-apparent after the 2017 election. In picking Kramp-Karrenbauer she even followed the same pattern she had used when appointing Von der Leyen four years prior... choosing a pragmatic, moderate-to-liberal, female CDU politician who's practically a younger clone of yourself.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I really haven't a clue who's gonna be German Chancellor four years from now. It surely won't be Angela Merkel, since the discussion about her future usually circles around the question "will she retire sometime prior to the 2021 election or will she complete her current term in office after all"? However, her anointed successor AKK - suffering from a severe form of foot-in-the-mouth disease ever since she took over the CDU - is kind of fizzling out at the moment. So.. Armin Laschet maybe?