Northern Ireland General Discussion

[Epaminondas]

From a few weeks ago, but I haven't seen this story posted yet:

https://twitter.com/Kilsally/status/1600551628301647907

The DUP acting like sore losers after coming in second place in the last election can't be helping them, let alone Northern Ireland as a whole.

I've lived close to the border. In fact I crossed over it only a few days ago - absolutely empty as usual. Closing it is just not possible without some form of military intervention.

The 200+ crossings are too many and the border cuts through private property which cannot be seized outside of martial law, which for obvious reasons would not serve the purpose of either unionists or conservatives.

This is all saber rattling to gain leverage over the UE, and should be ignored like the tantrum it is.

[Epaminondas]

TUV and Aontu are the obvious ones. Do they intend to only care about North Antrim and Belfast West respectively? If so, their supporters can probably be tossed into the (present) big two camps. SDLP and UUP: they got a higher profile right now cause the SDLP has two incumbents and the UUP are staking their turf early and publicly. But how will their candidates/campaigns/voters behave outside of those specific constituencies? And that's a real question, cause history tells us some will stay in their camps, some will look to the DUP/SF, and some will look to the Alliance. The NI situation is really different on a seat-by-seat basis, which complicates just polling the regional overall.

Why is tactical voting is so much less effective in NI than in England?
It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

[Epaminondas]

Why is tactical voting is so much less effective in NI than in England?
It's easy to see a theoretical path where SDLP/SF would carve up West of the Bann, and Alliance/SF dominate the East, yet this is never considered.

Why would Alliance ever make a deal with Sinn Fein? The core of their support is moderate Unionists who probably hate Sinn Fein even more than the DUP.

If the members of both parties could stomach it, strategic Alliance-SF dropouts would bring down the DUP very effectively since their heartlands have almost no geographic overlap.
e.g. the 3 Antrim seats to Alliance, and East Derry & Upper Bann to Sinn Féin.