French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Epaminondas]

I know it’s still weeks away but is there any view on the most likely outcome here?

Nationalist bloc ~ 220 seats
Rainbow Left bloc ~ 180
Macron bloc ~ 100
Conservative bloc ~ 50
Independents ~ 20

Doesn't sound unreasonable, though how any alliance gets to 290 from there is a mystery.

[Epaminondas]

While the same source said he was not “thinking about” another crack at the presidency in 2027, another Socialist Party figure told the paper: “If he can come back, he will come back.”

Looking back in December at his five-year mandate from 2012 to 2017, Mr Hollande said: “I’d thought of a campaign slogan if I’d stood for re-election. It was ‘All things considered, it wasn’t so bad’.”

Asked why he was so popular with young French people, he recently said: “For those aged between 18 and 25, I’m the president of their childhood. There was Father Christmas and the president. I was the president. They still like me.”

The man is optimistic, I'll say that.

He must have memory-holed 2017.
Was talking to a relative in France recently, usually quite uninvolved in politics, who brought up and still vividly resents Holland for his scooter saga - which I'd completely forgotten.

[Epaminondas]

How many members of this accursed tribe are there?

It's a common name in Brittany, meaning "The Head" in Breton. But only the women seem to be successful politicians, so the dynasty name won't survive much longer.

JM is still kicking about at age 96.

[Epaminondas]

How many members of this accursed tribe are there?

It's a common name in Brittany, meaning "The Head" in Breton. But only the women seem to be successful politicians, so the dynasty name won't survive much longer.

JM is still kicking about at age 96.

Marine has three kids all from first marriage that lasted between 1994-2000 so all are in their mid to early 20s currently

None are Le Pen though, French law remained conservative until recently regarding naming conventions of children to married parents.

[Epaminondas]

I get that in any event he would not be appealing to me personally, but is the French left caught in a spiral in which they have to suck it up and stomach the man, or are there redeemable features? Or is it just Le Pen making Melenchon look acceptable to some by virtue of comparison?

Le Pen wants to solve problems by letting people die or suffer. Mélenchon believes in positive ideals of democracy and egalitarianism. There's a reason young people and Muslims vote for him rather than the PS, and it's not his youth.
If you don't see the difference, you've been had by the both-sideism zeitgeist.

The Russia stuff is a throwaway plank of his platform - he has little interest in foreign affairs (not sure he even speaks English), he just reflexively cannot abide the US dictating French politics.

[Epaminondas]

REN seems to be prepared to come 3rd in almost every triangular contest, yet refusing to drop out due to false equivalences between Left and Extreme Right in order to help the RN and hope the ensuing chaos keeps their voters from straying.

However on these numbers, I can't see how they survive extinction in 2027 when they will be locked out of the second round and roundly loathed by 70% of the population.

Why is Brittany so much on the left compared to other French regions?

There was a post in a previous France elections megathread that suggested Brittany’s historically strong Catholicism and/or history industrialization has made it more resistant to the “populist” right, which is generally stronger in less religious, post-industrial areas that haven’t experienced economic revitalization. Too lazy to find it atm.

True for Catholic tradition, not to mention a very large civil service sector, and Brittany remains the second wealthiest province by income after Alsace if memory serves.
Ironic that this is where the Le Pen family traces its roots.

[Epaminondas]

One thing I don't understand is why they allow these "triangulaires" at all? Why not treat the legislative elections like the Presidential elections and just drop everyone except the top 2 candidates?

I think it was set up by Giscard d'Estaing in 1976 as a sop to quell demands for proportional representation in the Assembly, which did not appeal to him. It's not quite as awful as 2-round FPTP, but still pretty bad absent any cordon sanitaire.

Ranked ballot would help to sanitize politics in France.

[Epaminondas]

Voting is open for French voters abroad: https://votefae.diplomatie.gouv.fr/pages/identification.htm

[Epaminondas]

Does anyone think there will be ANY races where the second round run-off is between an LFI candidate and a non-LFI member of NFP? I suspect that the RN will make it to the second round in virtually every contest

11 of the 12 constituencies abroad will likely have no RN in the second round, with Israel the odd one out.

[Epaminondas]

Some cross-stats on life satisfaction vs. voting intention



Macron's party has captured satisfied voters, Rassemblement vote propensity is directly proportional to dissatisfaction.